Here’s where the Flyers stand in the NHL playoff race with two games to play

So you’re saying there’s a chance ...

The Flyers entered Thursday with their once-promising playoff hopes all but extinguished. The team had lost eight straight games and faced the tallest of tasks against the New York Rangers, the NHL’s No. 1 team. But thanks to a gut-check and potentially galvanizing 4-1 victory over the Blueshirts, the Flyers’ playoff hopes remain alive for another day, even if only just. According to NHL analytics site Money Puck, the Flyers now have a 16.6% chance of making the playoffs, which is up from 7.5% after Tuesday night’s loss at Montreal. In the same model, the Flyers had a 93.5% chance of reaching the postseason on March 24.

With all five teams in the mix at the Eastern Conference playoff cutline idle on Friday, all eyes turn to what has the potential to be a decisive Saturday. Here’s where things stand heading into the weekend’s contests ...

Thursday night’s action, which saw the Flyers, New York Islanders, and Pittsburgh Penguins win, produced a slight shakeup in the standings. The Penguins, courtesy of a 6-5 overtime win over Detroit, leapfrogged Washington, which lost to Buffalo, and into the second wild card spot with 86 points and three games remaining.

The Flyers, Capitals, and Red Wings are now tied just behind the Pens with 85 points. Washington and Detroit have three games remaining, while the Flyers are down to two. The Flyers host Washington on Tuesday in their final game of the season.

Washington’s loss was the biggest development for the Flyers, who would have been up against it with a Caps win. Thanks to a 3-2 overtime win vs. Montreal, the Islanders are all but out of the Flyers’ reach. With the Islanders now at 89 points, the Flyers — even if they win their last two games and the Islanders get no points from their final three — can now only beat them via a wins tiebreak. So at this point, the Flyers’ playoff hopes hinge on claiming the second wild-card spot.

» READ MORE: Flyers still believe, and other takeaways from a season-saving (for now) win over the Rangers

As mentioned earlier, the odds are against the Flyers, given the number of teams ahead of them and the simple fact that their three closest competitors have a game in hand and thus have a higher number of points they can attain.

While the Flyers have a 16.6% chance, according to MoneyPuck, their odds are lower in other models. Sportlogiq has the Flyers odds at 10%, while The Athletic gave the Orange and Black an 8% chance as of Friday.

The Flyers really need to win both of their games and then hope for some help.

The Flyers are back in action Saturday at home against the New Jersey Devils (5 p.m., NBCSP). By puck drop, the Flyers could be officially eliminated from contention in the Metro, with the Islanders playing at the Rangers at 12:30 p.m. But a Flyers regulation loss combined with a Pittsburgh win would eliminate the Flyers altogether.

But there is some hope for the Flyers, as the Islanders, Penguins, Capitals, and Red Wings are facing teams above them in the standings. The Flyers likely will be the only one of the five teams in contention that will be favored on Saturday. Here’s a full look at each of the team’s remaining schedules:

Islanders (89 pts): @NYR on Saturday, @NJD on Monday, vs. PIT on Wednesday

Penguins (86 pts): vs. BOS on Saturday, vs. NSH on Monday, @NYI on Wednesday

Capitals (85 pts): vs. TBL on Saturday, vs. BOS on Monday, @PHI on Tuesday

Red Wings (85 pts): @TOR on Saturday, vs. MON on Monday, @MON on Tuesday

Flyers (85 pts): vs. NJD on Saturday, vs. WSH on Tuesday

First and foremost, the Flyers need to win Saturday to extend their playoff hopes until at least Monday. But even wins over New Jersey and Washington might not be enough for the Flyers to reach the postseason.

With catching the Islanders likely a pipe dream at this stage, the Flyers will be focused on Pittsburgh, Washington, and Detroit.

They will need the Penguins to go 1-2-0 or worse over their final three games, which is possible given they play three playoff teams in the Bruins, Predators, and Islanders. Washington also has a brutal stretch with games against the Lightning, Bruins, and then what could be a winner-take-all game on Tuesday at the Wells Fargo Center. Detroit has the most favorable schedule remaining with a tough game at Toronto but then a home-and-home with Montreal.

But while Montreal is 12 points behind the Red Wings in the standings, the pesky Canadiens are 5-4-1 over the past 10 games and have played spoiler lately — the Flyers know this all too well having lost to them twice in the past two weeks.

If the Flyers go 2-0-0 and Pittsburgh goes 1-2-0 or worse, the Orange and Black would finish a point ahead of the Penguins. Even if Detroit went 2-1-0 in that stretch, the Flyers would still have the inside track via the regulation wins tiebreaker (more on that later). With Washington, the same concept would apply, as both teams again would tie on 89 points in that scenario. The tiebreaker with the Capitals currently is too close to call.

Regulation wins is the first tiebreaker, assuming each team plays the same number of games. The Flyers have 29 regulation wins compared to 31 for Pittsburgh, 29 for Washington, 27 for Detroit, and 27 for the Islanders.

In other words, assuming the Flyers win out in regulation, they are in pretty good shape in this tiebreaker, with the Penguins being the exception. The Red Wings or Islanders cannot catch the Flyers in this scenario, while Washington would need to win all three of their remaining games to pass Philadelphia. One more regulation win by Pittsburgh, and they would be guaranteed the tiebreaker over John Tortorella’s men.

» READ MORE: The Flyers’ collapse probably made their long rebuild longer

After regulation wins, the next tiebreaker would be regulation and overtime wins (excluding shootouts) followed by head-to-head points. The Flyers currently have 33 of these wins, which is tied with Washington, but behind the Islanders (36), Red Wings (36), and Penguins (35).

If the Flyers are to overcome the odds and make the postseason, they in all likelihood will play the Rangers. While that is not guaranteed, the Rangers (110 points) currently are three points clear of Carolina and Boston (107 each) and four clear of Florida (106). The NHL playoffs begin April 20.

Entering Friday’s games, the Flyers still are on the outside looking in. These are the current the playoff matchups:

Rangers vs. Penguins

Bruins vs. Lightning

Hurricanes vs. Islanders

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs

Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights

Vancouver Canucks vs. Nashville Predators

Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche

Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings