The Flyers’ 7-3-2 record is a bit misleading, but the last two performances provide hope

While perusing the NHL standings, one could easily be forgiven for thinking the Flyers’ 7-3-2 record is a misprint. Remember, this team finished with the fourth-worst record in the league last season (25-46-11), made minimal offseason changes outside of hiring John Tortorella as coach, and had a top scorer, Travis Konecny, who tallied just 52 points. Expectations were low.

They got even lower when it was revealed that defenseman Ryan Ellis — who played just four games last season with a mysterious pelvic injury — likely would miss the season, and top-line center Sean Couturier (back) would be out three to four months after undergoing a second back surgery in eight months. Cam Atkinson (upper body) also has yet to play this season, while James van Riemsdyk (fractured finger) has missed the last six games and is expected to miss about a month.

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The Flyers, undermanned and short on high-end offensive talent, were expected to stink. And maybe that would be a good thing with a generational prospect like Regina Pats center Connor Bedard awaiting as a consolation prize in the draft.

Twelve games and 15% into the season, and things have changed a bit, as the Flyers have against all odds found ways to not only be competitive but to win games. No, they aren’t a serious Stanley Cup contender, and, given their advanced metrics over an 82-game season, even the playoffs seem a bridge too far. But it is clear they are better than expected, and it is clear that Tortorella is the biggest reason for that. The biggest change has been the effort and belief among the group, as the Flyers already have five comeback wins after managing just nine last season.

That said, the Flyers have ridden stellar goaltending from Carter Hart (6-0-2, .946 save percentage) and have gotten some puck luck along the way — according to Natural Stat Trick, they rank last in Corsi For percentage at five-on-five (40.09%), a metric that uses shot differential as an indication of the time a team spends in the offensive zone.

While the team’s record looks good on paper, much of it has been a smoke screen, as Hart’s play in net has papered over a lot of the team’s mistakes and shortcomings. Tortorella has admitted as much, saying the team has been “just terrible” at points in some wins, while it has looked “really good” at points during losses.

The Flyers’ five-on-five numbers when it comes to advanced metrics are all at or near the bottom of the league. They also won’t continue to win scoring just 2.75 goals per game, the fifth-lowest average. Sooner or later those numbers will catch up with them, as winning at this rate while defending so much is simply unsustainable. Even the eye test tells you the Flyers have ridden their luck for much of the season — the home win over the Florida Panthers the most glaring example.

All that said, the Flyers are coming off probably their best back-to-back performances of the season (both wins), with Tuesday’s 5-1 victory over St. Louis likely the team’s most complete game to date. While there has been a fool’s gold element to some of the team’s early season success, the efforts against Ottawa on Saturday, and particularly against the Blues, point to progress.

First, the Flyers got off to a strong start Tuesday and were the aggressors, something they’ve rarely done this season. They outshot the struggling Blues, 18-9, and outchanced them, 29-19, in the first period. They built on that in the second period, when they exploded for three goals.

The players who scored the goals were another positive. Youngster Wade Allison opened the scoring with a greasy goal in front, his third of the season, before Konecny, who has shouldered the offensive load with a team-high five goals and 14 points, doubled the lead off the rush. Two of the Flyers’ most important young players, Noah Cates and Owen Tippett, also got on the score sheet — which could be huge for their confidence — with a goal from depth player Lukáš Sedlák sandwiched in between.

If the Flyers are to build on their surprising and somewhat fortunate start, they will need to put together more efforts like Tuesday’s, when the team played with the puck, created scoring chances, and received contributions from players up and down the roster.

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“Out of all the games of the first dozen, [these were] probably two of our games where we’ve played as a team and haven’t depended on just one or two guys, especially our goaltender,” Tortorella said. “So maybe we’re taking steps in the right direction.”

Tortorella also credited the depth guys on Saturday when he singled out the fourth line for its work in the checking game and third-line enforcer Zack MacEwen scored the game-winner against the Senators.

The Flyers still have a ways to go, but the last two games have been better and represent a more replicable blueprint for success for the team going forward. An uptick in depth scoring, particularly from players like Cates, Tippett, and Allison certainly would aid those efforts.

With 16 points in the bag, Tortorella has to be happy with the results, even if he hasn’t regularly been happy with the performances. Now we will see if the Flyers can make the last two efforts more the norm, starting Thursday with Tortorella’s return to Columbus.