Could Johnny Gaudreau to the Flyers actually happen? There’s still a chance

For much of the past year, fans and local media alike have optimistically speculated that South Jersey’s Johnny Gaudreau, a Salem native, could return to play for the hometown Flyers. But that is just what it was, hopeful speculation.

How in the world could the Calgary Flames let their franchise player — fresh off a 40-goal, 115-point season, and a fourth-place finish in the Hart Trophy voting — actually leave? And in the off chance Gaudreau did hit the open market, why would the 5-foot-9 dynamo choose the Flyers, who have posted back-to-back losing seasons?

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Given the Flyers’ current position and cap situation, landing Gaudreau remains unlikely. But just 48 hours before NHL free agency opens at noon on Wednesday, the Flyers’ chances, are probably better than they have ever been.

Here’s why, and what the Flyers would need to do to give themselves a legitimate chance of nabbing this summer’s No. 1-ranked free agent:

The biggest obstacle to the Flyers — and any other team — landing Gaudreau was the likelihood he would never hit the open market at all.

Gaudreau, who turns 29 next month, has played his entire career for the Flames since being drafted in the fourth round in 2011. He has made six All-Star teams in eight full seasons and led the team in scoring in six of the past seven campaigns. He posted his best individual season in 2021-22, reaching the 100-point plateau for the first time and finishing second in the league in scoring behind Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (123 points).

The Flames won the Pacific Division and looked to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender before disappointingly bowing out in the second round against the Oilers. Gaudreau’s fourth-place MVP finish marked the second time he has finished in that position in the past four years.

This is all to say that players like this, especially ones on good teams, just don’t often hit free agency. They usually sign extensions either during the season or in the weeks that directly follow. But two days from the bell for free agency ringing, Gaudreau surprisingly remains unsigned.

What once seemed like a sure thing is now anything but, as the Flames and Gaudreau seem to be at an impasse. The Flames are not giving up on signing him, but the clock is definitely ticking.

At the draft, Flames general manager Brad Treliving tried to quell the growing speculation that Gaudreau’s time in Calgary was coming to an end.

“Our whole focus has been about getting these guys signed,” Treliving said of Gaudreau and marquee restricted free agent Matthew Tkachuk. “Like I said the other day, we’ll continue to do that. ... But we remain optimistic.”

People around the league aren’t as “optimistic,” and the longer Gaudreau goes unsigned, the likelier it is he hits the market Wednesday. Calgary’s advantage of offering Gaudreau an eight-year contract also expires Tuesday at midnight.

According to TSN, Gaudreau is currently stewing over a contract offer in the eight-year, $9.5-million-per-year range. Given the team also wants to hold onto Tkachuk, who totaled 104 points last season and will command upwards of $9 million per year, it is unlikely the Flames can afford to go much higher.

“These things take time,” Treliving said. “Johnny’s a really good player. There’s going to be a lot of attention.

“I think it’s real genuine on both sides to try and get a deal done.”

Right now, it seems about 50-50 as to whether Gaudreau returns to Calgary.

First and foremost, to come back home. Gaudreau grew up just 25 miles from Philly and attended Gloucester Catholic for high school, which is just over five miles from the Wells Fargo Center.

Gaudreau’s father, Guy, remains an influential figure in the area’s youth hockey scene and serves as a skill coach for the Flyers Elite youth hockey club. With almost his entire family in the area and a home at the Jersey Shore, Gaudreau certainly has off-ice reasons to come home.

On the ice is a much harder sell, as the Flyers finished with just 61 points last season, the fourth-fewest in the NHL. The team lacks a true franchise star and as it is currently constructed is nowhere near being a Stanley Cup contender. New coach John Tortorella has his fans and detractors among the players he has had with other teams, and some stars like Gaudreau could have concerns about playing his strict, defense-first style.

On the other hand, Gaudreau grew up a Flyers fan and has said numerous times throughout his career he would love to wear orange and black at some point during his career.

In 2017, he said it would be “sweet to play here someday,” and that “everyone enjoys coming back to their hometown and playing in front of people who really care about you and support you.”

NHL insiders Pierre LeBrun (TSN) and Elliotte Friedman (Sportsnet) recently said Gaudreau’s decision likely won’t come down to money, and that going back to play on the East Coast is a real factor in his decision.

Finally, Gaudreau is best friends with Flyers center Kevin Hayes. The two played on a line together at Boston College, where they won an NCAA championship.

Gaudreau spent summers during college with the Hayes family in Boston, Hayes telling The Inquirer in 2019 that the two were “inseparable” and that Gaudreau is “one of my best friends, not within hockey, just within my life.”

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A lot. Whether it is Calgary or elsewhere, Gaudreau is going to get paid between $9-10 million per year.

According to CapFriendly, the Flyers have just $118,560 in available cap space after signing defenseman and fellow South Jersey native Tony DeAngelo to a two-year, $10 million deal. In other words, they will need to make a move or two to get further under the $82.5 million cap ceiling by Wednesday if they are to be a genuine player in the Gaudreau sweepstakes. (The NHL allows teams to exceed the cap by up to 10% in the offseason and subsequently get cap compliant prior to the season.)

Wingers Travis Konecny ($5.5 million cap hit), James van Riemsdyk ($7 million), and Oskar Lindblom ($3 million) have been names mentioned if the Flyers were to try to shed money, although any deal to unload van Riemsdyk, who is the final year of his deal, would hinge on the Flyers trading serious future draft capital or prospects.

Of this group, Konecny would be the easiest to move, given he is 25 and has been a productive NHL player over his six NHL seasons. Konecny has regressed production-wise over the past two seasons but plays with an edge and from 2017-20 posted three straight 24-goal seasons.

Defenseman Ivan Provorov ($6.75 million) would seem unlikely to be moved given the uncertainty surrounding defenseman Ryan Ellis’ health. Speaking of Ellis, if GM Chuck Fletcher is worried about Ellis’ availability for the beginning of the season, which he seems to be, the Flyers could put him on Long Term Injured Reserve (LTIR) and free up money, at least temporarily. Ellis has a $6.25 million cap hit, while winger Joel Farabee ($5 million cap hit), who recently had disc-replacement surgery, is also a potential candidate for LTIR.

The Flyers have work to do before Wednesday if they are to make a play for Gaudreau, who has been linked with the New Jersey Devils and Seattle Kraken — both teams with loads of cap space — as well as the Flames.

Flyers fans have dreamed of “Johnny Hockey” in orange and black for years. The next few days might be the best chance for that to become a reality and for the Flyers to do an “aggressive retool” as Fletcher has repeatedly said.