A primer for Tuesday’s NHL draft lottery: The Flyers’ odds, the top prospects and more

Now that the Flyers’ season has ended and the NHL is charging toward crowning its next champion, attention is turning to the future.

When the league heads to Las Vegas — and the Sphere — on June 28-29 to select the next generation of stars, the Flyers will nab at least nine players. There is a chance at a 10th slot, but it will not be decided until after the first round.

But before the Flyers can get the players they desire, the draft order has to be determined. Each of the 16 teams that did not advance to the Stanley Cup playoffs is entered into the draft lottery to determine the sequence.

Here’s everything you need to know about the 2024 NHL draft lottery.

The NHL will conduct the lottery on Tuesday at 6:30 p.m. Fans can watch it all unfold on ESPN before Game 2 of the second-round matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and the New York Rangers. The event will be televised from the league’s NHL Network studio in Secaucus, N.J.

Based on how they ended the season, the Flyers are, as of now, slotted in at No. 12 and have a 2.5% chance of being selected in the first lottery draw. The Arizona Coyotes, who officially moved to Utah a few weeks ago, have a 7.5% chance of getting the first pick, with the San Jose Sharks having the best odds for the top spot at 18.5%. The Pittsburgh Penguins are, as of now, selecting 14th. As part of the Erik Karlsson trade, the pick will be transferred to the Sharks unless it moves into the top 10 in the draft lottery. If that occurs, the Penguins can opt to give the Sharks the first-rounder in 2025.

In 2021 the NHL instituted a weighted system to determine the draft order. According to the league, it was done to reduce the chances of the last-place team dropping in the draft order and, if it did drop, limit how far it fell.

Although 16 teams are involved in the NHL draft lottery, the change made it so only the 11 worst-finishing clubs can vie for the top spot. The new rules also stipulate that teams can win the lottery only twice in any five-year span. So, for example, if the Chicago Blackhawks were to win the lottery again this year, they would not be able to select first overall again until the 2027 lottery. If it is the Montreal Canadiens, who won in 2022, they would have to wait until 2026.

So how is it all figured out? Well, there are two lotteries with a machine spitting out four balls at a time and teams holding different combinations based on their odds.

If a team in the top 11 is selected in the first lottery, it will select first overall. If a team in the bottom five wins, it moves up in the standings — but only 10 slots — and then the Sharks would select first overall. A second drawing is then used to determine the No. 2 pick, with teams having the ability to move up again.

No.

After finishing with a 38-33-11 record and 87 points, the Flyers are slotted to pick 12th; they have the same points as the Minnesota Wild but won one fewer game in regulation. The Flyers finished three points back of the No. 11 team, the Buffalo Sabres.

Because they finished outside the top 11, the Flyers can only move up 10 spots and therefore cannot grab the No. 1 overall pick. They can move up as high as No. 2 if they win either of the lotteries and have a 5.1% chance of doing so, according to Tankathon.

The Flyers have a 0.1% chance of moving up to third or fourth in the order — based on teams below them winning the lotteries — so it is extremely unlikely. They can drop down to 13th or 14th if Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Detroit, or St. Louis wins one of the lotteries or two teams win each of the lotteries.

If none of the above happens, the Flyers will stay at No. 12.

The Flyers will have at least nine picks in the draft and could have as many as 10.

They’ll have two in the first round, one of their own currently at No. 12 and the other from the Florida Panthers through the Claude Giroux trade. That spot won’t be determined until the Panthers are eliminated.

In the second round, they’ll potentially have two picks. Despite trading their own second-rounder, they received a compensatory pick for not signing 2018 first-rounder Jay O’Brien. The Flyers also have a conditional second-round pick from the Blue Jackets from the Ivan Provorov deal, but Columbus could slide it to 2025.

The Flyers have one pick in third and seventh rounds and two each in the fifth and sixth rounds. Philly does not have a fourth-round pick.

» READ MORE: Resetting the Flyers farm system and trade cupboard after the trade deadline

Boston University standout Macklin Celebrini has long been considered the top pick in the draft. At 17, he became the youngest player to win the Hobey Baker Award as men’s college hockey’s top player after notching 32 goals and 32 assists in 38 games.

Artyom Levshunov, a defenseman at Michigan State, is ranked No. 2 behind Celebrini in NHL Central Scouting’s final ranking of North American skaters. Center Cayden Lindstrom is third and defenseman Zeev Buium is fourth. Tij Iginla, the son of Hockey Hall of Famer Jarome Iginla, moved up two spots to No. 9.

Defenseman Anton Silayev, who is 6-foot-7, is first overall the final ranking of international skaters but is signed with Torpedo in the Kontinental Hockey League through the 2025-26 season. Right wing Ivan Demidov is a close behind Silayev and is considered to be one of the highest-skilled players available in the draft, with center Konsta Helenius ranked No. 3. Defenseman Adam Jiříček, the younger brother of Blue Jackets defenseman David Jiříček, is fourth.