Should the Flyers be worried about Tyson Foerster’s lack of goals?

If you polled Flyers fans about what they were most excited for entering the 2023-24 season, a large portion of them would have answered: “Tyson Foerster.”

Expectations were low for the team’s outlook, with general manager Danny Brière and president Keith Jones preaching patience as the Flyers embarked on a proper rebuild. And while Matvei Michkov and Cutter Gauthier (whelp) were viewed by fans as the main pillars of the team’s future, Foerster ranked right below them in terms of the organization’s top prospects and fan excitement level. Plus, unlike Michkov and Gauthier, Foerster was expected to play in the NHL this year.

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The excitement was warranted. The 6-foot-2, 215-pound Foerster is a former first-round pick in his own right — No. 23 overall in 2020 — and is blessed with a shot that would be classified as high-end even in the NHL. The 21-year-old winger was fresh off a season in which he scored 20 goals as an AHL All-Star and tantalized during a brief cameo with the Flyers last March. Foerster looked beyond NHL-ready in that spell with the big club, playing with supreme confidence and potting three goals and seven points in eight games. He even seemed to win over the notoriously tough John Tortorella.

“Tyson continues to impress,” Tortorella said March 21. “Blocked shot at the end, huge blocked shot. Not turning pucks over in our end when he’s getting pinched. You can see his offensive skills, but the other parts of the game — it’s been impressive.”

Foerster, as the team would have hoped, was the best Flyer at development camp. The rookie carried that momentum into training camp, showing up bigger and stronger, and making the team for the first time. Given his talent and opportunity — a top-six role and power-play time — he seemed poised for a big rookie season.

But to this point, Foerster has underwhelmed a bit offensively. He has tallied just six goals and 17 points in 42 games and snapped a 16-game goal drought in Friday’s 4-3 win over the Minnesota Wild. The slump WAS his second such stretch this season, as he failed to find the back of the net in the first 15 games to begin 2023-24. In fact, four of Foerster’s six goals came in a three-game stretch between Nov. 30 and Dec. 4.

Foerster has remained a real positive despite his lack of goals, though. The Flyers at 5-on-5 have controlled 53.7% of the shots taken with Foerster on the ice (third on the team), and have a team-best expected goals percentage of 56.9%, according to Natural Stat Trick. Philadelphia has outscored its opponents, 25-19, at 5-on-5 when Foerster is out there.

Tortorella has consistently praised Foerster for his advancement defensively and in terms of the finer details of the game. The numbers back up the bench boss there as well. According to Evolving Hockey’s even-strength defense model, which measures defensive goals above replacement, Foerster ranks No. 1 among all NHL forwards this season at 4.8. That is a full goal better than the next best forward, Florida Panthers star Sam Reinhart.

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“It’s been so impressive as far as the other stuff, and that’s caught us off guard as a coaching staff,” Tortorella said earlier this season. “We didn’t realize how equipped he was. A lot of people question his skating. I haven’t seen it for a second, his skating affect any part of being a National Hockey Leaguer, and this is why we kept him in there.”

Center Sean Couturier, a former Selke winner as the league’s top defensive forward, also complimented Foerster’s work away from the puck.

“He plays the right way. He’s mature and the way he plays, he battles hard, wins a lot of battles,” Couturier said of Foerster in December. “There’s a lot of little things that people maybe don’t notice, even if he’s not producing.”

While Foerster’s defensive breakthrough has been a most pleasant surprise and could be a major development when trying to gauge his long-term ceiling, the fact of the matter is the Flyers drafted him to score goals.

That is not to say that Foerster will be a bust if he doesn’t become a 25-to-30-goal scorer at this level. Remember, he’s 21 years old, playing his off-wing, and navigating his first extended time in the NHL. But the Flyers surely would like to see some more offense out of a player with his pedigree and with the type of shot that Tortorella said last year “kind of shocked me.”

Foerster’s release is too good for him to be shooting 6.5% on the season, the ninth-worst mark among forwards who have taken at last 75 shots heading into Sunday — Scott Laughton at 3.2% also ranks in the bottom 10. But while others like Cam Atkinson, Morgan Frost, and Bobby Brink have been scratched during slumps, Foerster has stayed in the lineup because of his responsible play.

“I see a number of guys pressing, [Foerster] being one of them,” Tortorella said recently when asked about the rookie’s struggles. “We’re just not getting enough offense out of people in spurts during games, in spurts as far as game to game. ... It’s just not consistent enough, so not just Tyson, a number of guys are [pressing].”

The winger knows how to score goals and eventually should get back to it. He has scored at every level to this point, including at a 0.73 point-per-game pace last year as a 20-year-old in the AHL. There’s an element of bad luck in this, as Foerster’s five goals are four below his individual expected goal total of 9.4 goals, per Natural Stat Trick. Foerster can look to Travis Konecny for inspiration there, as the All-Star winger shot just 7.3% in 2021-22. With a little more selectivity and some analytical tweaks, Konecny has shot 15.5% and scored 52 goals in 103 games since then.

The flashes of Foerster’s goal-scoring potential are there, the audible ping on his goal against Minnesota, and his two snipes vs. Pittsburgh this year jump to mind. Now it is about Foerster finding some confidence and seeing the puck go in a few times. Could a switch back to the comfortability of right wing spark his offense? A promotion back into the Flyers’ top-six after his recent demotion? Whatever the answer, it’s far too early to panic.

The Flyers (21-14-6) will again go with 11 defensemen and seven forwards against the Wild (8 p.m., NBCSN). Nic Desaluriers will come in for Bobby Brink, who will be a healthy scratch. When asked if scratching the Minnetonka, Minn., native was a tough decision, Tortorella responded: “Absolutely not. ... It’s the National Hockey League. I can’t get itineraries from players when their parents are coming in to decide what a lineup is.” ... Carter Hart will start in net.