COVID-19 cases rise in South Jersey as new omicron subvariant takes over

South Jersey is seeing a new COVID-19 case spike, as New Jersey’s infection rate outpaces that of the United States.

It’s a likely sign of the increased transmissibility of the BA. 2.12.1 subvariant of omicron, which has taken off in New Jersey but has yet to become dominant in other regions of the United States, including Pennsylvania.

In New Jersey and New York, the subvariant has edged out its predecessor, BA. 2, to become the dominant strain, according to CDC data — accounting for two-thirds of cases there last week. It was nearing dominance in the United States overall, but BA. 2 still accounted for just more than half of cases last week. BA. 2 overtook the original omicron strain at the end of March.

New Jersey health officials are attributing the increase in cases in part to the high transmissibility of the two variants, said state health department spokesperson Donna Leusner — meaning other states could soon follow with BA. 2.12.1-driven case spikes as the subvariant takes over.

“New Jersey — along with most of the Northeast and much of the country — has been experiencing an increase in case rates, and to a lesser extent, a rise in hospitalization rates,” Leusner said. “We have been seeing these increases across New Jersey, including the south.”

The number of new cases has been steadily rising in Pennsylvania and New Jersey since late March, part of the BA. 2-driven increase in cases nationwide that began after the omicron surge ended. Over the last two weeks, the average number of new reported cases in the United States increased by 60%, according to New York Times data.

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The Northeast has consistently seen the highest case rates in the country during this wave. Cases are increasing more steeply here now than they were in the late summer, when the delta variant was spreading. And the actual rates of infection are higher than recorded because many cases are diagnosed through at-home tests.

Some public health experts have warned of a mounting wave and called for more caution, while the public and elected officials have largely resumed normal activities as if the pandemic were over. The White House projected last week that the United States could see up to 100 million infections this fall and winter, warning that the country will run out of tests, treatments, and vaccines if Congress doesn’t authorize more coronavirus spending.

South Jersey is now seeing about 53 new reported cases a day per 100,000 people — compared to 23 and 28 in Philadelphia and the Pennsylvania suburbs, respectively, according to data analyzed by The Inquirer.

COVID hospitalizations are also increasing in both Pennsylvania and New Jersey, following the steady, weekslong increase in cases. There were 308 people hospitalized in Philadelphia and its suburbs and 224 people hospitalized in South Jersey as of Monday.

Pennsylvania and New Jersey have the same hospitalization rate per capita: an average of 9 people per 100,000 were hospitalized in each state as of Monday, according to the Times data. Hospitalizations have increased by 38% in New Jersey and 44% in Pennsylvania in the last two weeks, with 773 COVID patients hospitalized in New Jersey and 1,194 in Pennsylvania as of Sunday.

The number of hospital patients testing positive for COVID has increased at Virtua Health’s South Jersey facilities in recent days, said Martin Topiel, the system’s infection control officer, but most have mild cases.

“We don’t feel overwhelmed now like we did both four months ago and in the prior delta wave,” he said.

Few patients are requiring intensive care, Topiel added, and some are asymptomatic or hospitalized for other reasons.

A spike in infections is clear, however, in the number of people seeking care at outpatient centers, such as urgent cares, or via telehealth, he added, and Virtua employees are calling out sick due to mild virus cases in increasing numbers.

“It’s a very contagious virus,” Topiel said.

The South Jersey region leads the state in hospitalizations, with averages of 11 in Atlantic County, 10 in Camden County, and 9 in Burlington County.

Some Pennsylvania counties have similarly high hospitalization numbers, with 44 people per 100,000 hospitalized in Montour County, 23 each in Wayne and Susquehanna Counties, and 22 in Northumberland County.

In Camden County, the percentage of tests coming back positive has risen to above 10%.

“We, public health officials, did predict there would be a spike, three weeks or a month after Easter, and that’s what we think we’re seeing right now,” said county health officer Paschal Nwako. “We’ll see what happens toward the end of May.”

It’s a positive sign, he said, that hospitals are reporting fewer severe cases. But Nwako said he urges all residents to make sure their COVID-19 vaccinations are up to date — including second boosters for adults 50 and older and anyone immunocompromised — and to mask in crowded indoor spaces, where the virus is far more likely to spread than outside.

On Sunday, New Jersey’s daily average number of new reported cases was 4,751 — the number has been climbing steadily since late March. Pennsylvania’s daily average number of new reported cases was 3,100 on Sunday, the highest number since late February.