Coronavirus models are not a crystal ball | Coronavirus Newsletter
Plus, Gov. Wolf says there will be no reopening exceptions for the Philly region
/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-pmn.s3.amazonaws.com/public/ZZJMDN2YQJCSJLEZWP55EIUDWI.jpg)
TL;DR: A day after Delaware and Bucks County officials asked Gov. Tom Wolf to assess nursing-home coronavirus cases separately from the general population for reopening, Wolf reiterated today that he would be using the same reopening metric statewide. My colleague Marie McCullough reports why coronavirus models do not give us what we desperately want: a crystal ball. We made all of our digital journalism free today as part of Giving Tuesday. If you want to help support our public service mission, you can make a donation here that will go toward funding our work.
— Ellie Silverman (@esilverman11, health@inquirer.com)
What you need to know
🔓 Delaware will allow some businesses to reopen Friday. A full list of the retailers Delaware will permit to resume operations can be found on the state’s website.
😷 Philly still needs to at least double its coronavirus testing capacity, Health Commissioner Thomas Farley said.
🏠 Housing advocates in Philly predict an “avalanche of evictions” once courts reopen, if city officials don’t act.
🎭 The $4.1 billion question: What’s to become of Philadelphia’s world-class arts and culture, post-coronavirus?
🏀 The Sixers and Flyers are offering refunds for tickets purchased through the teams’ websites for games canceled due to the pandemic.
🏖️ Jersey Shore beaches: Avalon and Stone Harbor are reopening Friday for walking, running, fishing, and surfing. Cape May has already reopened for limited activities. Ventnor says its beaches will reopen Friday for “passive recreation,” and the Atlantic City beaches and boardwalk have remained open throughout the pandemic.
Local coronavirus cases
📈The coronavirus has swept across the Philadelphia region and cases continue to mount. The Inquirer and Spotlight PA are compiling geographic data on tests conducted, cases confirmed, and deaths caused by the virus. Track the spread here.
A day after Delaware and Bucks County officials asked Gov. Tom Wolf to assess nursing-home cases differently from the general public in deciding when the hard-hit counties around Philadelphia could reopen, Wolf reiterated today that he would be using the same reopening metric statewide. Pennsylvania Health Secretary Rachel Levine has also rejected calls for the state to separately count nursing-home cases. Here is how low Philly’s case count has to be for the state to consider reopening.
Our understanding of the coronavirus, and how it spreads, keeps changing. This means the models made to estimate its characteristics, such as the time between getting infected and showing symptoms, or estimate the hospital capacity needs, or guide reopening strategies have been “at best, educated guesses, and at worst, dead wrong,” my colleague Marie McCullough reports. Read more about how models are used and what their limitations are here.
Helpful resources
What we still don’t know: Here are some of the big coronavirus questions scientists are racing to answer.
Your guide to going outside (safely) right now.
Red, yellow, green: What to expect in each of Pennsylvania’s tiers for reopening
Here are 8 principles of social distancing to help figure out what you can and can’t do.
Not sure what a medical term means? We have definitions for you.
Have another question? Our reporters have tracked down answers.
You got this: Order baked goods for Mother’s Day
We rounded up a list of Philly bakeries offering curbside pickup or delivery. Read more here to find out where to get custom cakes, ganache-stuffed cupcakes, vegan donuts, and more.
🌮 How to order takeout and delivery from Philly’s 2020 James Beards Award nominees.
🔨 My employer has called me back to work. Do I have to return?
✂️ How to give yourself a buzz cut (or even a fade) during the shutdown.
Have a social distancing tip or question to share? Let us know at health@inquirer.com and your input might be featured in a future edition of this newsletter.
What we’re paying attention to
The erotic hero of a steamy 1991 Sally Quinn novel was based on Anthony Fauci, the Washingtonian reports.
CNN reports that Dr. Rick Bright, the ousted vaccine director, filed a whistleblower complaint alleging officials ignored his early warnings about the coronavirus.
This Philadelphia sushi restaurant is using a robot to do contactless takeout orders, Eater Philly reports.
Enjoy getting our journalism through email? You can also sign up for The Inquirer Morning Newsletter to get the latest news, features, investigations and more sent straight to your inbox each morning Sunday-Friday. Sign up here.