COVID-19 shutdowns could continue into 2022, Harvard experts predict | Coronavirus Newsletter

TL;DR: As Northeast governors, including those in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island, are coordinating to plan for the region’s eventual reopening in a way that does not cause a spike in coronavirus cases, a Harvard study shows that this reopening may be further away than we realize. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, also said the United States lacks the critical testing and tracing procedures needed to begin reopening the nation’s economy. As we continue social isolation, Philly-area suicide hotlines are seeing an increase in calls.

The unused temporary hospital set up at Glen Mills School in Delaware County is moving to the Poconos. See photos of the relocation. Make sure you check Inquirer.com/coronavirus for the latest news, and please feel free to tell your family and friends to sign up.

Enjoy getting our journalism through email? You can also sign up for The Inquirer Morning Newsletter to get the latest news, features, investigations and more sent straight to your inbox each morning Sunday-Friday. Sign up here.

— Ellie Silverman (@esilverman11, health@inquirer.com)

🏥 Philly’s new coronavirus cases are slowing as hospitalizations increase. The city is also opening a quarantine and isolation site for first responders as cases rise among Philly firefighters, paramedics, and police officers.

😷 The federal government will send 2 million N95 masks to support “health-care challenges” in the broader Philly area.

🩺 More than 10,000 out-of-state healthcare workers are joining New Jersey’s fight against the coronavirus.

💰 Stimulus checks are starting to arrive. If you can afford it, here’s how to use that money to help others in Philly.

🇺🇸 Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, said the United States lacks the critical testing and tracing procedures needed to begin reopening the nation’s economy. Here’s how Philadelphia’s coronavirus outbreak compares with other big cities.

📈As of Tuesday evening, there are more than 16,000 reported cases in the Philadelphia area. Track the spread here.

As I wrote yesterday, the governors of Northeast states, including Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island, are coordinating to plan for the region’s eventual reopening while preventing a spike in coronavirus cases. President Donald Trump is eager for the economy to reopen.

But, a Harvard study published Tuesday in the journal Science shows that a reopening may be further away than we realize, my colleague Marie McCullough reports. We could see COVID-19 outbreaks and shutdowns into 2022, the Harvard experts predict.

“Predicting an end to the pandemic in the summer..." senior author Marc Lipsitch said during a Tuesday teleconference, "is not consistent with what we know.”

The authors raised questions we still do not know the answers to, including: Are people who recover from COVID-19 fully immune to the virus? And, for how long? Even while blood tests that could help detect disease-fighting antibodies are coming out, many are proving to be unreliable.

Researchers said that under all their simulations, when isolation restrictions were lifted, coronavirus infections surged. But the model also showed that too much isolation would reduce virus transmission so much “that virtually no population immunity was built."

If the United States had more testing, contact tracing, reliable blood antibody testing, more resources in hospitals, effective treatments for the coronavirus and most importantly, a vaccine, the outlook would be better, the researchers wrote.

Social distancing is critical to slowing the spread of COVID-19, but that isolation can also greatly strain mental health.

In Philadelphia, calls to suicide hotlines have increased about 10% in the last few weeks, Omoiye Kinney, the communications director at the Department of Behavioral Health and Intellectual disAbility Services told my colleague Bethany Ao.

Pennsylvania created a toll-free 24-hour support line on April 1. Since its launch, it has taken 2,000 calls. And suicide hotlines across the country are experiencing similar patterns.

Loneliness and hopelessness, two feelings many people experience while isolated during the global pandemic, are main risk factors for suicide, said Colleen Reichmann, a Philadelphia psychologist. Concern for this has led many psychologists and therapists to offer free or reduced sessions.

“There’s a constant fear that’s simmering in the background, about the economic toll this is going to take, how long social distancing is going to go on,” she said. “That’s really detrimental to mental health.”

If you or someone you know is thinking of suicide, call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-8255 or text TALK to the Crisis Text Line at 741741.

📸 Want to have the best Zoom background of all your colleagues? Download these Inquirer images.

🎧 This Philly musician imagines what extinct animals sounded like. His recordings may be the Zen-out tracks you need now.

📺 Comcast is launching Peacock, its new video streaming service, Wednesday. It will be available at no additional charge to Xfinity customers using its X1 TV platform and Flex streaming device.

Still need a face mask? Watch this video for a step-by-step tutorial for making your own face mask, based on guidance from the Pennsylvania Department of Health.

Have a social distancing tip or question to share? Let us know at health@inquirer.com and your input might be featured in a future edition of this newsletter.

The staff at the Colonial Theatre in Phoenixville began using the theater’s sign to post movie titles for the quarantine age:

“Now showing: No Close Encounters of Any Kind."

“Now showing: Mr. Smith Goes to Wash His Hands.”

“Now showing: Don’t Stand by Me.”

My colleague Stephanie Farr writes how these punny titles were so popular, that the Colonial started an online Punny Marquee Title Contest on April 6. In the first week, the theater received more than 400 entries from more than 130 people. You can submit your own idea via a Google Doc that’s accessible on the Colonial’s website.

News about coronavirus is changing quickly. Go to inquirer.com/coronavirus to make sure you are seeing the newest information.