Philly’s indoor mask mandate likely to return next week, as city COVID-19 cases creep upward

» UPDATE: Philadelphia’s indoor mask mandate will be reinstated starting April 18

Philadelphia is poised to reinstate its indoor mask mandate next week as COVID-19 cases climb again.

An Inquirer analysis showed the most current COVID case counts and the percent increase of cases both meet the city’s benchmarks that would trigger the return of the mask mandate for public indoor spaces. The Philadelphia Department of Public Health agreed with the analysis.

“What we see and know is cases are rising,” said James Garrow, a spokesperson for the department. “People should start taking precautions now.”

The Inquirer analysis isn’t predictive, and it is possible that key metrics triggering the return of the mask mandate could decrease by Monday. It’s “certainly possible,” Garrow said, but the city has not yet reached the peak of the case increase that appears to be building now. The city will review Monday’s hospitalization numbers and the last seven days of case counts to decide whether to change policies.

The COVID data are not alarming enough to warrant an immediate change in the city’s mask policies, though, he said. The city has said it would announce changes to its COVID safety requirements on Mondays, and an announcement on whether mask requirements would return would likely come then, Garrow said. If the COVID metrics stay around where they are now, or increase, the health department could choose not to resume mandating masks indoors, he said, but it’s unlikely.

“It’s possible,” Garrow said, “but it certainly is not my personal preference.”

If brought back, the mask mandate would apply to schools in the city as well. Spring break is April 11 to 15, and the city had already stipulated that masks would be required in schools for the following week, from April 18 to 22.

The department created a tiered alert system earlier this year to provide a framework for when precautions would increase or ease, and will likely stick to it, he said. The department may announce the return of the mask mandate Monday but delay implementing it for a few days, Garrow said, to give businesses time to adapt.

Since March, the city has been in response level 1 — “All Clear” — which does not require masks apart from some narrow exceptions, including public transportation.

On Monday, the health department recommended people start masking indoors again, without requiring it.

» READ MORE: Here’s where you still need a mask in Philly

To jump up to the “Mask Precautions” response level, the city needed to hit two of the following three triggers:

The second metric has already been hit earlier this week; 51 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized as of Tuesday. As of Wednesday, 49 people were in city hospitals with COVID.

With the city nearing the two other thresholds — Philly was averaging 94 new COVID-19 cases per day as of April 1, using a three-day lag that the city recommends — officials encouraged residents to wear masks in indoor public spaces.

According to an Inquirer analysis Wednesday, using the same three-day lag, the average number of new COVID-19 cases per day was 110 as of April 3. And the 10-day increase in the average number of new cases was 54%.

Hospitalizations dropped to 49 on Wednesday, according to state data, just short of hitting a third metric.

The city had initially included a fourth metric, the percent of COVID tests with positive results, but concerns about the reliability of testing led the city to drop that benchmark. Because so many people are taking COVID tests at home, and because those taking tests at sites like hospitals and clinics are likely to lead to inflated positivity rates, testing has become a less valuable tool for measuring COVID’s spread.

The city has four COVID-19 response levels: “All Clear,” “Mask Precautions,” “Caution,” and “Extreme Caution.”

Since early March, the city has been in the “All Clear” category, under which there are no vaccine or testing requirements for places that serve food or drinks, and there are no mask requirements in most public places.

The second risk level — “Mask Precautions” — would put the indoor mask mandate back into effect. “Caution,” the third level, adds a requirement for places that serve food or drink to require a vaccine card or negative COVID-19 test from patrons; “Extreme Caution” makes a vaccine card or exemption a requirement.

» READ MORE: Philly's new COVID system makes it hard to stay unmasked. We crunched the numbers.

No. The “Mask Precautions” response level only adds an indoor mask mandate.

“Caution” would allow you to show a vaccine card or negative test from the previous 24 hours to get inside a place that serves food or drinks. The highest response level is the only one that would require a vaccine card (or an exemption) to get inside those establishments.

The city will return to the same level of indoor restrictions that were in place through most of the last two years. The city relied on restaurant inspections and 311 complaints to identify businesses not complying with the masking order, and the health department isn’t anticipating additional monitoring or enforcement efforts if the mandate resumes.

Critiques of the city’s tiered system have raised the question of whether the key metrics could hover around where they are now, leading to the mask mandate ending and returning week by week, a confusing and frustrating possibility. The history of the pandemic suggests that isn’t likely, Garrow said. COVID tends to surge and recede in a wave pattern, and the only time case counts and hospitalizations stay stable is when they are very low.

Bringing back the mandate next week, he said, is designed to play a role in trying to keep the crest of the next wave as low as possible.