The Democrats’ debate in Detroit: What to watch

Round 2 of the Democratic presidential debates unfolds Tuesday and Wednesday with 20 candidates hoping to boost their standing nationally and with local viewers in a critical swing state — Michigan.

The debates, broadcast live from Detroit at 8 p.m., split the top polling candidates between the two nights. The threshold to return for the September debates increases after this, so Detroit could be the last chance for some middle- or lower-polling candidates to make some noise or see their campaigns effectively ended by fall.

It’s also an opportunity for the front-runner, former Vice President Joe Biden, to bounce back from a lackluster first debate performance in June and for those polling right behind him to increase their gains.

The lineups were determined by a random drawing by debate host CNN.

Here’s what we’ll be looking out for:

The party’s progressive leaders, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, on separate stages in June, will stand side by side Tuesday night. Sanders’ 2016 run largely paved the way for the more progressive ideas on display in the race. Meanwhile, Warren has a set of extensive policy plans that have been an early driver of conversations among candidates.

But is the primary stage big enough for both of them? There is some concern among progressives that with Sanders and Warren in the race, the liberal vote could split, leaving the party with a more moderate candidate. The two senators have steadily polled second or third behind Biden. Warren keeps rising, while Sanders started near the top and has plateaued.

This could be the night they aim to differentiate themselves. Their supporters are actually markedly different, Politico recently reported. Sanders appeals to lower-income, less educated voters while Warren wins among women, seniors, and those with postgraduate degrees.

The two will be sharing the stage with some of the more moderate candidates in the race, including Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, former Maryland Congressman John Delaney, Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock.

The story of the first debate was Sen. Kamala Harris’ searing take-down of Biden.

They’ll be back on stage together Wednesday, standing next to each other, so a repeat clash seems likely — and Sen. Cory Booker looks likely to join in, too.

All three are heavily courting African American voters as they try to piece together winning coalitions.

» READ MORE: Cory Booker tackles race, racism as he courts black vote in South Carolina

Booker and Harris, the only two black candidates in the contest, have been pounding Biden over his record on race, including his opposition to school busing and his support of the 1994 crime bill.

Biden has taken aim right back at their work, signaling that he plans to show the fight that was missing in the first debate.

Booker, who has struggled in polling and desperately needs a breakthrough moment, clearly has Biden’s attention after a week of jabs between the two campaigns. He will be standing to Biden’s right. Harris will be to Biden’s left.

The former vice president still leads the race and is aiming to show he remains the Democrats’ best option, even as his rivals test him.

More broadly, Biden has to show that at 76 he can still hit political fastballs after his stumble in the first debate.

It was just one night, Biden supporters said. Don’t rush to judgment.

And it’s true, it was just one very early moment and the former vice president has retained his strong polling lead in the crowded field.

But Biden has kept a notably tighter public schedule than his rivals, leading to questions about his agility and stamina.

» READ MORE: How to watch and stream the second Democratic debate

A similarly weak performance, whether in the face of criticism from Harris or others, would be harder to explain away and could do lasting damage to one of Biden’s main arguments: that he is the candidate best suited to tackle President Donald Trump.

If he can’t handle his fellow Democrats, he’ll have a hard time making the case that he’s the person to stand up to Trump’s pugilism.

If there’s one thing that thrilled both liberals and conservatives in the first debate, it was how far left many of the Democratic candidates pushed on hot-button issues such as health care and immigration.

Some candidates embraced the idea of eliminating private health insurance in favor of a government-run system nationwide (others wanted to expand Medicare as a choice, not a mandate). Several said they would decriminalize illegal border crossings. Some argued for guaranteeing health coverage to undocumented immigrants.

This all thrilled liberals seeking a bold, unabashed response to Trump. But some of the proposals also poll terribly nationwide.

Only 41 percent of adults support replacing private insurance with Medicare for all, according to an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released this month. The numbers were even worse for giving health coverage to immigrants who are in the country illegally (33%) and decriminalizing border crossings (27%).

The rush to embrace these proposals anyway has some Democrats fretting that the candidates are painting themselves into unpopular positions that will make it easier for Trump to paint them as open-border socialists.

Other ideas from the left, however, are more popular, including Medicare as a national option (70%), a Green New Deal (63%), and a wealth tax (62%). Liberals argue that they need to give voters something big to get excited about, not just baby steps.

>> READ MORE: For some 2020 Democrats, incrementalism is out. Bold liberal ideas are in. They come with risks.

Will some of the more center-left candidates try to reset the party’s center of gravity? Or will they feel compelled to join their competitors’ in racing to the left?

The decisions could frame not just the primary, but the general election campaign against Trump.

If September’s debate-qualifying rules were in place this week, only five of the 20 candidates would be on stage. After the four top polling candidates — Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Harris — South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg is a distant fifth, but he’s coming off of an impressive fund-raising run. Buttigieg will share the stage with former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke, who has yet to recapture the energy of his 2018 Senate run against Ted Cruz.

Several candidates polling below 2%, including Booker, former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, and Klobuchar, will also try to find a moment to propel forward. Even high debate marks don’t always stick, though. Castro was considered to have some stand-out responses to questions about immigration in the first debate, but that hasn’t translated to a major boost in the polls.

Then, there are the lesser-known candidates. What moments might author and lecturer Marianne Williamson or entrepreneur Andrew Yang steal? Will they be swan songs or performances that keep their campaigns alive.

In Detroit, which has the largest percentage of African American residents of any big city, we’d expect questions related to civil rights and criminal justice reform, along with poverty, housing, and public health. (Flint’s water crisis has already come up but is likely to again.)

Trump’s recent comments that four congresswomen, including Rashida Tlaib of Detroit, should “go home,” are sure to be a focus.

Given the Motor City’s manufacturing history, candidates may try to respond to Trump’s trade policies and promises of bringing back jobs to postindustrial cities.

Climate change has been a consistent topic among the candidates, which Washington Gov. Jay Inslee has argued should have its own debate.