This has been one of the warmest Julys on record in Philly, and hot across the country
When the final climate numbers are tabulated, this almost certainly will rank among the five warmest Julys in 151 years of recordkeeping, with an average temperature close to 82 degrees in Philly.
Those who aren’t particularly fond of triple-digit indexes and high air-conditioning bills — not to mention October-like ocean temperatures — have cause to celebrate on what has turned out to be a magnificent weekend: July is about to end.
When the final climate numbers are tabulated, this almost certainly will rank among the five warmest Julys in 151 years of record-keeping with an average temperature close to 82 degrees in Philadelphia, just under 3.5 degrees above normal.
And continuing a local and national trend, the nighttime warmth has been even more impressive than the daytime heat. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, last year more than 70% of the nation experienced “much above normal” low temperatures; down from 90% in 2016 but still way above 20th-century levels and a symptom of climate change.
» READ MORE: The heat wave prompted Philly’s first heat emergency of the year
In Philadelphia through Saturday, the overnight lows were averaging about four degrees above the 30-year normals, and the official temperature hasn’t dropped below 70 since July 11. Highs have averaged around 90, the lows 73.5.
If misery truly does enjoy miserable company, at least Philadelphia has been in the right country this month.
“It’s just been generally warm across the nation,” said Alan Reppert, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.
And dry (those horrific Kentucky floods that have killed at least 25 notwithstanding), which has in turn intensified the heat. Lack of moisture promotes daytime heating since the sun spends less energy on evaporating water.
And it looks as if the pattern is going to persist into August. “It’s really tough to break this now because it’s been so dry,” said Reppert.
» READ MORE: Summer temperatures are up, but heat wave deaths are down.
In addition to Philly, records have tumbled this month in Boston, New York, Newark, N.J., and Washington. July temperatures have averaged three degrees above normal in St. Louis and Denver, and two degrees above in Seattle, according to National Weather Service data.
How hot it’s been
The hot highlight of the month locally was the eight-day heat wave that ended Monday. It was blamed for at least five deaths in Philadelphia — and for chilling the surf at the Jersey Shore.
Those steady winds from the south that imported the heat also contributed to the “upwelling” event at the Jersey Shore in which warm surface layers were displaced by cooler water beneath the surface. The chill set in on July 19, and on Saturday morning surf temperatures off Atlantic City were shy of 60, or 10 degrees below normal.
The cooling could persist at least a few more days, said Michael Crowley, with the Rutgers University Center for Ocean Observing Laboratory.
But it wasn’t just the heat wave that put July in the rarefied category for warmth in Philadelphia. Based on Sunday’s forecast, the month would finish just behind 2011, when the average was 82.4, and 1994, 82.1. In 2020, it was 81.
July 2022 basically was warm wall-to-wall, with above-normal temperatures on 25 days, and 90-plus readings on 18.
“We had a couple of fronts come through,” said Matthew Brudy, meteorologist with the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly, but they had “marginal effect.”
Showers have been capricious, dousing some areas and leaving the dust undisturbed in others. With its weekly update, the U.S. Drought Monitor now has all of Bucks County and parts of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Montgomery Counties, and Philadelphia, in “abnormally dry zones.”
Officially, Philly’s rainfall is under half of normal for the month.
And while the lack of rain has helped drive up daytime temperatures, the region’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean has promoted the nighttime warmth.
» READ MORE: Yes, summers are warmer these days
The heat has been riding the winds from the south that are part of the circulation around high pressure centered in the Atlantic Ocean, the “Bermuda high,” and that has supplied the humidity that has made the nights oppressive. Water vapors inhibit overnight cooling.
That humidity is having a powerful and potentially dangerous effect at night. Water vapor at night inhibits the release of daytime warmth.
Looking ahead
Sunday won’t be quite a reprise of the region’s splendid weather, but for a change temperatures are due to fall short of 90 under increasing clouds, with a chance of showers at night. Showers are possible Monday, and it might not make it past 82.
But another heat wave is expected to get underway Tuesday, cresting late in the week when temperatures are expected to reach the mid-90s once again.
However, on Saturday, the heat wasn’t looking quite as ferocious as earlier forecasts had indicated. “A couple of models were a little less bullish on it,” said Brudy.
And Reppert said it’s at least possible that a cooling front will come through Friday. And it might come with showers.
Then again, we have heard that before.