Which world leader can persuade Putin to make a peace deal? | Analysis

After over a week of devastating war, the race is on to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. But what world leader could earn the trust of both Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine suggests a paranoid and aggrieved mind-set, and his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, who has made clear he is willing to fight to the end for his country?

When conflict erupted between Russia and Ukraine in 2014, following Moscow's support for separatists in Donbas and its annexation of Crimea, European powers France and Germany played that mediating role in what was dubbed the Normandy format. Belarus's capital became the site of negotiations that eventually lead to the Minsk agreements. But the Minsk agreements stalled, in part because Kyiv felt they were unfair because they were negotiated from a position of weakness.

Now, almost eight years later, the idea that Belarus could be a neutral party is laughable; Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, dependent on Moscow after huge protests against his rule in 2020, has allowed Russia to use its territory to stage attacks. Though Ukrainian officials have in the past attended peace talks with Russian counterparts in Minsk, they have insisted this time they be held close to Ukraine-Belarus borders.

Paris and Berlin, meanwhile, are likely to be unacceptable to Putin as mediators. Germany is supplying the Ukrainian side with considerable firepower, including antitank weapons and Stinger missiles. France, meanwhile, has provided defensive equipment and more general support to Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron is the only leader in Western Europe in regular contact with Putin, but he has offered grim signals about the Russian president’s readiness for negotiations.

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"At this point, [Putin] refuses to cease his attacks on Ukraine," Macron wrote on Twitter on Thursday.

Could another world leader step in? Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett visited Moscow this weekend for an unannounced meeting with Putin. Bennett later said Sunday that he was in touch with both Russia and Ukraine and that he hoped to help broker peace.

“Even if the chance is not great — as soon as there is even a small opening, and we have access to all sides and the capability — I see this as our moral obligation to make every effort,” the Israeli leader said before a cabinet meeting.

Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a call with Putin on Sunday. According to a readout from Erdogan's office, the Turkish leader "said an immediate ceasefire will not only ease humanitarian concerns in the region but also give the search for a political solution an opportunity" and "renewed his call of 'let's pave the way for peace together,' " according to Reuters.

Turkey has also said it hopes to host both Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers at a diplomacy conference in Antalya that begins Friday. Reuters reports both Russia's top diplomat Sergei Lavrov and Ukraine's Dmytro Kuleba have accepted the offer, though it is not clear if either will be able to attend.

Both Bennett and Erdogan have attributes that could make them desirable third parties. Israel is a long-standing ally of the United States, while Turkey is a fully fledged member of NATO — but both have sometimes strained relations with other Western allies. Ankara is one of the rare buyers of both U.S. and Russian weapons, much to Washington's chagrin. Both nations have their own interests in ending the war: Israel is home to large Russian and Ukrainian diasporas, while Turkey's struggling economy doesn't want any further disruption for the millions of Russians and Ukrainians that visit each year.

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But both Israel and Turkey have had their own differences with Russia, particularly in regard to Moscow's support for Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria's civil war. Complicating matters further is the detail that Turkey is the supplier of a type of armed drone being used by Ukraine against Russia's invading forces.

Even before the conflict, Kyiv's purchase of the Bayraktar TB2 drone had rattled Moscow, who saw it as another example of a NATO country supplying their foe. Since the invasion, video footage of Turkish-made drones launching devastating attacks on unsuspecting Russian forces has spread over social media, marking another PR win for Kyiv. And despite Erdogan's outreach to Putin, more drones were reportedly delivered last week.

There are few better candidates, however. Last week at the United Nations General Assembly, there was an overwhelming show of support for a resolution to call on Russia to end the war. Even the Taliban in Afghanistan and the military junta in Myanmar signed on. So did Israel and Turkey.

Only five countries voted against the motion, a motley crew of Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea, Russia itself and Syria — hardly beacons of diplomacy. But a further 35 countries abstained, including powerhouses like India and China that have so far strived to avoid picking sides in the conflict.

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India has offered to facilitate peace talks, though as a major buyer of Russian arms many analysts view it as too scared of angering Moscow. But some diplomats in Western Europe, and even Ukraine itself, believe the path for peace could run not through New Delhi but Beijing.

In an interview with the El Mundo published Friday, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that when it came to mediating a peace deal, there was no alternative: "It must be China, I am sure of that." Borrell told the Spanish newspaper: "We have not asked for it nor have they asked for it, but since it has to be a power and neither the US nor Europe can be [mediators], China could be."

Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister, told an online news conference Saturday that he had been assured by officials in Beijing that "China is interested in stopping this war," adding that the war was against the interests of China and that Chinese diplomacy had "sufficient tools to make a difference."

But even if China holds sway over Russia, it remains at odds with the West over many issues and is rarely a mediator in international conflicts. Some analysts doubted it would support negotiations. “They’re not in a neutral position,” John Delury, a professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University in Seoul told the Financial Times. “They’re much closer to Russia.”