Groundhog Day 2024: Punxsutawney Phil doesn’t see his shadow

Temperatures are forecast to rise across the Philadelphia region over the next few weeks, and Punxsutawney Phil expects more of the same through March.

The nation’s favorite four-legged weather expert did not see his shadow after scurrying out of a burrow at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney. As the legend goes, that means the country can expect above-average temperatures for the next six weeks.

It’s just the fourth time since 2014 Phil hasn’t seen his shadow, and the famed marmot has only forecast an early spring 21 times since 1887.

Phil’s prediction could be sour news for snow-loving residents across the Delaware Valley, with Philadelphia entering Day 14 of a snow drought Friday after having received 8 inches last month. But forecasters say there’s still hope the region will get more snowfall later this month.

Paul Pastelok, the long-range forecaster for AccuWeather Inc., expects winter to make a comeback at the end of February with “two or three” more snowfalls possibly dropping in Philly into March. But like Phil, Pastelok doesn’t think the region will be forced to endure six more weeks of winter weather.

The announcement of Phil’s annual forecast drew tens of thousands of people to the small town in Western Pennsylvania, which has seen crowds continue to grow following the COVID-19 pandemic. Among those in attendance was Gov. Josh Shapiro, who declared Phil the official state meteorologist of Pennsylvania.

Last year, Punxsutawney Phil predicted six more weeks of winter by seeing his shadow. Not exactly shocking, considering he’s only forecast an early spring 21 times since 1887, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NOAA hasn’t yet weighed in on the accuracy of last year’s forecast, but according to an analysis of weather data by The Inquirer, the contiguous United States saw slightly above-average temperatures in February and March, meaning Phil missed the mark.

Phil was way off in Philadelphia, which experienced temperatures way above normal last year after he saw his shadow — average temperatures were up 5.6 degrees between Feb. 2 and March 15.

Incorporating data from NOAA, that would mean Phil has been accurate just 30% of the time over the last 10 years, only predicting the weather correctly in 2020, 2016, and 2014.

Overall, Phil and his predecessors have predicted more winter 106 times and called for 21 early springs, according to Stormfax Almanac (no records exist for nine years). Live Science did an analysis of the data last year and concluded Phil’s six-week predictions have been correct just 36% of the time.

While Punxsutawney Phil claims credit as the “only true weather forecasting groundhog,” there are several four-legged furballs across the country claiming to also have temperature-predicting abilities.

One that’s closer to Philadelphia is Octoraro Orphie, who has been offering predictions since 1907 at the Hibernating Governor of the Slumbering Groundhog Lodge in Quarryville in Lancaster County. Or rather, Orphie’s remains have been delivering the predictions through divine province, since the fuzzball has been dead and preserved for years.

» READ MORE: Think Punxsutawney Phil is odd? These 16 Groundhog Day celebrations are even stranger.

Yes, a stuffed marmot is dealing weather predictions in Lancaster County, and apparently she’s quite accurate.

“Octoraro Orphie has never been wrong,” boasted Quarryville Lodge board chair Charlie Hart, who told the Associated Press Orphie has nailed her weather prediction for 115 straight years.

Another well-known competitor is Staten Island Chuck, who also goes by Charles G. Hogg and resides at the Staten Island Zoo. He and his predecessors have been making weather predictions since 1981, and he differed from Phil last year by correctly forecasting an early spring.

While Chuck doesn’t get near the acclaim, he’s had to deal with more harrowing conditions than his Pennsylvania counterpart. In 2009, Chuck bit then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg and was secretly replaced by his granddaughter, Charlotte, for the 2014 ceremony. Unfortunately, then-Mayor Bill de Blasio dropped Charlotte on the ground, and the groundhog died several days later.

So far, New York City Mayor Eric Adams appears to have a better working relationship with the bucktoothed prognosticator, though he has yet to travel to Staten Island to join the festivities in person.

Chuck and Phil have disagreed on the forecast 10 times since 2008, and during that run the Staten Island rodent was wrong only twice, according to the Staten Island Zoo. In fact, over the past decade, Chuck had an accuracy rate of 90%, missing just one prediction in 2019.

There are a number of lesser-known groundhogs across the country people turn to for forecasts. Woodstock Willie presides in Woodstock, Ill., where the movie Groundhog Day was filmed. There’s also Buckeye Chuck, who’s been doling out predictions in Marion, Ohio, since 1970. North of the border, Canadians in Nova Scotia turn to Shubenacadie Sam and residents of Ontario listen to Wiarton Willie.

In the nation’s capital, Potomac Phil has been dishing out predictions from Dupont Circle in Washington, D.C. since 2001. But like his Lancaster County counterpart, he shuffled off this mortal coil years ago and his preserved remains deliver the weather forecast.

For the third straight year, residents in Middlesex County in New Jersey didn’t have a furry bucktoothed expert offering a custom weather forecast.

Organizers in Milltown announced on Facebook earlier this week they still haven’t had any luck finding a replacement for Milltown Mel, who died days before Groundhog Day in 2022.

“We’ve called wildlife refugees, we’ve called different zoos, we’ve called exotic animal breeders. They’re just not available,” Milltown Wrangler Russell Einbinder told ABC7 in New York.

Despite the setback, Milltown Mayor George Murray hasn’t given up hope of replacing Mel and returning to the weather-predicting game.

“It’s a great tradition, we will be doing it again,” Murray told ABC7. “Once we procure another groundhog.”

In the meantime, New Jersey residents can search to see what other local marmots predicted, including Lady Edwina of Essex County and Stonewall Jackson VI in Sussex County.

» READ MORE: Groundhog Day ceremony canceled again in Milltown, N.J., as search for Mel’s replacement drags on

Groundhog Day roughly marks the midpoint between the shortest day of the year in winter and the beginning of spring.

According to the Pennsylvania Tourism Office, Romans took the early Christian holiday Candlemas to Germany, where it was said that if there was enough sun on Candlemas Day for a badger to cast a shadow, there would be six more weeks of bad weather.

“Dachstag, or Badger Day, is a German folk expression for Candlemas,” former University of Pennsylvania professor Don Yoder wrote in his 2003 book on the holiday. “The belief was... if the badger encountered sunshine on Candlemas and therefore saw his shadow, he crawled back into his hole to stay for four more weeks, which would be a continuation of winter weather.”

German immigrants brought this tradition to Pennsylvania, with references to a groundhog weather forecast found dating back to 1841 in Morgantown, according to Yoder.

In 1886, the editor of Punxsutawney’s newspaper teamed up with a group of groundhog hunters to begin the legend of Punxsutawney Phil’s weather prowess. So in the United States and Canada, we celebrate Groundhog Day on the same date Christians across the globe celebrate Candlemas.

» READ MORE: Think Punxsutawney Phil is odd? These 16 Groundhog Day celebrations are even stranger.

While Punxsutawney Phil’s weather predictions date back more than a century, his popularity has skyrocketed since the 1993 release of the classic comedy Groundhog Day, starring Bill Murray.

In the film, Murray plays TV meteorologist Phil Connors, who gets stuck in an endless loop on Groundhog Day as he falls in love with producer Rita Hanson, played by Andie MacDowell. One of the joys of the film is there is no explanation of the repeating day, which is famously marked by Sonny & Cher’s I Got You Babe playing on a clock radio each morning Murray wakes up.

But according to producer Trevor Albert, Columbia Pictures refused to green light the film until there was a scene added explaining how and why Murray’s character was stuck in a time loop.

“‘Is it aliens that put a hex on him... or does he fall into some weird chemical?’” Albert recalled being asked by studio executives, telling The Wrap they wanted some tangible event to occur in the first act that showed someone cast a spell on Murray’s weatherman.

Screenwriter Danny Rubin ultimately did write a scene that explained Murray’s repeating day was caused by a gypsy’s curse, but Albert said they buried the scene in the production schedule and it was purposely never shot.

Are you an AMC+ subscriber? If so, you’re in luck — you can stream Groundhog Day for free with a subscription.

If you’re a cable subscriber, you can stream Groundhog Day for free using AMC’s app or website. You’ll need to log in using your cable subscription.

You can also watch it the old-fashioned way by tuning into AMC pretty much anytime time during the day, since the network is running Groundhog Day on a loop Friday from 11 a.m. through midnight.

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