Poconos population could drop up to 24% by 2050, state predicts

When people imagine the Poconos today, they think of mountains and natural beauty, of course, but also increased development and traffic. Lake Wallenpaupack is a veritable highway of boats on summer weekends and ski slopes are usually jammed through March.

There are crowds in the bars and restaurants in scenic Milford and on the trails that wind through the Delaware Water Gap. Crowds and tourism, according to a recent study by the Center for Rural Pennsylvania, mask what’s really going on: a massive population drop.

The center, a nonpartisan research arm of the General Assembly, predicts large population losses for rural areas over the next 30 years, with Poconos counties such as Pike and Wayne expected to have some of the biggest potential declines. Officials with the Center for Rural Pennsylvania said the vast majority of homeowners in rural counties are baby boomers and that deaths are outpacing births in those areas.

Kyle Kopko, the center’s executive director, acknowledged that the 2050 prediction is “different than what folks are seeing on the ground.”

“We’re getting a lot of calls about it,” Kopko said. “Pennsylvania is wrapped up in a larger phenomenon affecting the Northeast, as its increasingly made up of older residents.”

Officials in Pike and Wayne Counties have balked at the report, however, claiming it’s based on pre-pandemic numbers.

“Yes, it surprised us,” said Matt Osterberg, a Pike County commissioner. “We are the fastest-growing county in the state of Pennsylvania right now, and they say we’re going to be the slowest? People are moving here from New York and New Jersey for lower taxes.”

The Center for Rural Pennsylvania predicted that 21 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties will see population growth through 2050, most of it in the southeastern part of the state, Philadelphia included. Overall, Pennsylvania’s population is expected to rise 1.6%.

The concern, however, is the 46 counties that could see a population decrease. Pike County was predicted to see the most drastic loss — 24.3% — far outpacing other rural counties.

“Statewide, we’re expected to have 600,000 more seniors,” Kopko said.

An aging population in rural Pennsylvania presents unique problems because there is already limited health care in those areas and there are waiting lists for senior housing. Declining birthrates affect school district budgets.

“Our enrollment has been down over the last decade,” said Jay Starnes, assistant superintendent of the Wallenpaupack Area School District. “In the high schools, we had 1,500 students in 2010 and now we’re at 1,000. We anticipate we’re going to be up in the 800s to 1,000 student range for as far out as we can see.”

Officials in rural counties have long said that the COVID-19 pandemic changed the populace, that real estate sales spiked, and urban residents poured into Pennsylvania, where they could still work from home but avoid crowds.

“It was so busy, I couldn’t handle it. I sold three homes, sight unseen,” one agent told The Inquirer in May 2020.

Starnes, however, said real estate sales have not equated to higher enrollment in schools.

State Rep. Joe Adams (R., Wayne/Pike) believed that the Center for Rural Pennsylvania’s data, which included birth and death rates from 2015 to 2019, and the 2020 U.S. Census, wasn’t able to take the pandemic fully into account. Those numbers, he said, are still in flux.

“The population has grown dramatically,” Adams said. “All you have to do now [to see it] is go to a grocery store.”

Rural officials also disagreed with population loss findings when the 2020 U.S. Census was released, citing the pandemic. Some municipalities requested recounts from the Census Bureau.

» READ MORE: From 2022: After a massive summer surge, Pocono beaches consider crowd control

“We don’t feel like it was an accurate count,” Donna Iannone, a Sullivan County commissioner, told The Inquirer in 2021. “We were really disgruntled. We complained, but it didn’t do any good.”

Adams said the recent population loss prediction isn’t merely about public relations. In Pike, a county without a hospital or urgent care, drastic population losses could sway potential health care providers from opening there, he said.

“It’s damaging for the future of businesses and for grant opportunities,” he said.

Kopko said those rural losses are happening all over the country. To the west, Ohio is expected to lose 5.7% of its population, and many rural counties there are expected to see losses of more than 20%.

While the pandemic may have sparked home sales, the center’s study still found that the death rate outpaced births in 2020 and 2021.

“Pennsylvania ranks 39th out of 50 for total fertility rate,” Kopko said. “It’s births and deaths that are driving these patterns.”