Philly suburbs saw a blue wave in 2019. What happens in Chester County’s commissioners’ race could swing it back.

A race for three seats on the Chester County Board of Commissioners could determine whether Democrats can maintain control in Philadelphia’s suburbs after winning big there four years ago.

Democrats captured the majority in 2019 for the first time in the county’s history, riding the “blue wave” alongside Delaware and Bucks — two other counties where generations of once-reliable Republican support slipped.

Chester County’s electorate is split sharply between red and blue camps. And while Democrats hold an edge on Republicans by around 8,000 registered voters, the party also saw more of its voters re-register with the GOP in 2022 than any other year since 2016.

Two Democratic incumbents, Josh Maxwell and Marian Moskowitz, are vying for reelection to the three-person board on Nov. 7 and are running against Republicans Eric Roe and David Sommers in a race in which the recent manhunt for escaped murderer Danilo Cavalcante has taken center stage.

Out of the four candidates, the top three vote getters will be elected to the board, which guarantees one seat for the minority party. The county’s sole GOP commissioner, Michelle Kichline, is not seeking reelection this year.

Both teams of candidates will have to woo the politically divided and rapidly growing county to secure an advantage in the coming four-year term.

Democrats Maxwell and Moskowitz have highlighted their work investing in public health services and addiction treatment, including the launch of a mobile mental health crisis unit and increases to the capacity of behavioral health beds in hospitals.

Moskowitz, a real estate developer, said that in a second term, they would continue to advocate for the creation of affordable developments to house the county’s influx of new residents, focusing on dense zoning near the its urban areas and preserving green spaces.

“We’re anticipating roughly 100,000 people in the next 15 to 20 years,” Moskowitz said. “We have to make sure there’s housing for everyone, and that no one is left out.”

Both Republican candidates said that they, too, would prioritize land conservation while at the same time managing Chester County’s expansion.

“Our roads can’t handle it — what once took people 10 minutes to drive is now taking 20 to 25 minutes,” said Roe.

Roe, a former state representative who hopes to court moderates with an anti-“mudslinging” platform, said he would like to see unused, preexisting buildings rehabilitated into housing developments instead of expanding onto farmlands, and to develop new communities in a way that doesn’t worsen traffic.

Both parties have largely kept to less-divisive issues, unlike the commissioners’ race in Bucks — where outspoken, nationalized politics have given the off-year contest an existential edge.

But on Aug. 31, the world’s attention turned to Chester County, and the race took an unpredictable tack.

That day, Cavalcante, an inmate serving life in prison for fatally stabbing his girlfriend, scaled the walls of the Chester County Prison in Pocopson. The breach led multiple law enforcement agencies on a countywide manhunt that spanned two weeks in sweltering, late-summer heat.

The search left schools closed and communities on edge. Doors and windows were locked down, while police helicopters buzzed over typically quiet neighborhoods.

Those were just some of the stories Chester County residents shared at public town halls that followed Cavalcante’s capture by U.S. Border Patrol agents and Pennsylvania state troopers on Sept. 13.

With Chester’s commissioners, district attorney, and prison warden present, neighbors pressed leaders for answers on how the inmate managed to surpass barbed fortifications and escape the prison’s exercise yard — several months after another inmate escaped in a similar fashion.

And in an election cycle that could be defined by voters’ perspectives on crime and public safety, Chester County Republicans have raised questions about Democratic leadership in the months leading up to the escape (commissioners also serve on the prison board).

“I think it concerned a lot of people,” said Raffi Terzian, chair of the Republican Committee of Chester County, whose party recently published a fiery blog post about the incident. “It brought to light a lot of gaps in oversight.”

Terzian’s main concerns were with staffing shortages in both the Chester County sheriff’s department and staff at the jail at the time of the escape.

According to an independent survey of the facility from 2022, the jail had faced a serious shortage of personnel. Meanwhile, prison officials said they were still down more than 30 positions in the days before the breach.

Maxwell, who served as mayor of Downingtown before becoming a county commissioner, said the county had gone through multiple pay increases to help retain staff and fill open positions after facing shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic.

To aid those efforts, Maxwell added, Chester offered wages that were, in some cases, higher than other counties.

Charlotte Valyo, chair of the Chester County Democratic Committee, was confident in her party’s record this term.

“Chester County is a healthy, safe, and beautiful place to live thanks to their leadership,” Valyo said.

Sommers, a Republican candidate, also raised questions about the corrections officer who, in an email sent weeks before the escape, warned prison staff that Cavalcante was planning to flee.

“Now we have this whole idea of safety,” Sommers, a Catholic school educator and political outsider, said about the race. He described being baffled as to how officials could have missed the July warning.

Maxwell, backing the commissioner’s response to the breach, pointed to the $3.5 million security enhancements for the prison that were approved under Democratic leadership in the weeks after Cavalcante’s capture.

The plan covers the full-enclosure of the prison’s eight exercise yards, the installation of scores of security cameras, and increases to staff and training, and would be the first major upgrade to the facility since 2001, according to Maxwell.

“We’re making those investments now — as a bipartisan board — to increase the security there” Maxwell said.

He mentioned that the board spoke to hundreds of citizens at the town halls to share information and remain transparent about the escape.

“We appreciate them greatly for spending some time with us and giving us the input we need to make sure they feel safe,” Maxwell said. “Hopefully we can earn their trust back,” he added.