Most large U.S. cities reversed or slowed pandemic population drops. But not Philly.

Nineteen of the 20 most populous American cities reversed or slowed pandemic-era population declines — Philadelphia being the notable exception — data released by the U.S. Census Bureau Thursday showed.

Does this spell a period of gloom for the city? Hard to say. Experts have consistently cautioned against reading too much into year-to-year population changes.

“One year of data is not a trend,” said Katie Martin, project director at Pew Charitable Trusts’ Philadelphia research and policy initiative.

What’s more, the census numbers only tell us the number of people arriving or leaving; they don’t tell us what’s driving the changes or if they’re permanent.

» READ MORE: Philly’s population dropped for a second year in a row, census data show

The start of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted Americans to spend a lot more time at home and reevaluate their priorities, mulling whether it was better to live in cities or the suburbs. Trend stories emerged of Brooklynites moving to nearby cities like Philadelphia because of the bang for-your-buck housing prices. At the same time, other stories told of families retreating to the suburbs out of fear that packed city living brought about more risk of contagion and concerns over rising gun violence in major cities, including Philadelphia.

In addition to people leaving the city, the pandemic limited international immigration, which helped boost Philly’s population in the decade before COVID-19.

Altogether, it appeared as though cities were losing the population fight after the first year of the pandemic.

Philadelphia lost 11,000 residents between July 2020 and July 2021, a 0.7% drop, according to census data. An additional 12 of the 20 most populous cities saw declines. The question looming over cities was whether residents would come back once vaccines became widely available and people had to return to offices. In Philadelphia’s case, July 2022 bookended another year of declines with an additional loss of 22,000 residents, a drop of 1.4% that left the city’s population at 1.57 million.

Southern and Southwestern cities like Phoenix; San Antonio; and Jacksonville, Fla., continued to experience population growth, which those regions were experiencing long before the pandemic.

Meanwhile, New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago saw smaller population declines than the first pandemic year.

Still, there’s room for some optimism.

“It really remains to be seen what impact the [international immigration] patterns are going to have in the coming years as immigration reaches pre-pandemic levels,” said Martin.

Ben Gruswitz, who uses these types of data for socioeconomic and land-use analytics at the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, added these population estimates are just that and subject to tweaks.

For example, the census initially estimated Philly lost close to 25,000 residents in the year ending July 2021. A year later, that number was adjusted to just over 11,000 residents. He wondered if the 2022 estimates could see a similar correction.

But even as we wait for trends to play out, population heads may be disheartened by some projections in the data.

Already knocked to the sixth most populous city as Phoenix (boo, hiss!) enjoys our former perch as fifth, San Antonio is inching closer to bumping us in the rankings further still, having experienced population increases during both years of the pandemic.

In terms of metro areas — which include an urban center as well as the surrounding communities — Atlanta is slowly catching up as well, likely to overtake the Philadelphia area as seventh-largest when the 2023 population figures are released next year.