See the impact of the proposed Sixers arena on Philly and how it compares with other cities’

The city this week released four long-awaited impact studies that aim to help decision-makers determine whether a new downtown Sixers arena would create a windfall of economic benefits, enrich the city’s tax coffers, and bring more entertainment options to the region, or trigger the demise of Chinatown and worsen traffic gridlock on Center City streets.

The studies include multiple charts to support their conclusions, some of which differ markedly from previous studies commissioned by Sixers ownership and Comcast Spectacor, whose Wells Fargo Center would suffer if the Sixers left for downtown in 2031.

Here are some charts with key conclusions from the new reports, and how they compare with some earlier studies.

According to the city’s economic-impact study, conducted by CSL International, a new downtown Sixers arena would generate nearly $400 million in new tax revenue over 30 years to the city, state, and School District of Philadelphia. The revenue figures are based on 30-year estimates of $1.9 billion in direct spending, plus the equivalent of 710 full-time jobs that would generate $593 million in earnings.

Those projections fall well short of the $1.5 billion tax windfall touted by the Sixers as “an opportunity too great to pass up” in their economic study, which the team has declined to share publicly. However, the figures in the city-sponsored CSL study and those provided by the Sixers are not directly comparable. The CSL analysis presented its totals in net present value, which shows the 30-year tax benefit in current dollars. The Sixers’ analysis is in nominal, or unadjusted, dollars. The Sixers said Tuesday that total taxes in the CSL report would equal $1.1 billion in nominal dollars.

According to CSL’s economic-impact study, building a downtown Sixers arena would make the Philadelphia region join eight other metro areas that have at least two NBA-quality venues, ranking fifth in population size. The Philadelphia metro area is also ranked third in median household income among multiple-arena markets. The study concludes that the region has the size and wealth to support two arenas.

The report cites the new arenas that have opened in the New York area to counter the argument that adding a downtown Sixers arena would oversaturate the Philadelphia market. The New York area already had Madison Square Garden in Manhattan and Prudential Center in Newark, N.J., splitting concerts when Barclays Center opened in Brooklyn in 2012. By 2019, the number of concerts in the area had grown to 174, compared with 61 in 2011. And the growth did not come at the expense of existing arenas: Both Madison Square Garden and Prudential Center hosted more concerts in 2019 than in 2011. The addition of the UBS Arena in Long Island in 2022 brought even more concerts to the New York metro area while not cutting into business at existing arenas.

The study commissioned by Comcast Spectacor has a different take. The New York market (as well as the Los Angeles market) is an outlier, with no other metro area in the region coming close to its size and influence. in addition, no other city in the country had two major professional sports arenas with the same city limits until Intuit Dome opened in Los Angeles this year. Other metro areas supporting multiple arenas have the sites in different cities, such as Target Center hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves in Minneapolis and XCel Energy Center with the NHL’s Minnesota Wild in St. Paul.

According to the CSL analysis, a new Sixers arena would add 50 new concerts and family shows to the Philadelphia market. Wells Fargo Center would host a total of 74.

A study commissioned by Comcast Spectacor, owner of Wells Fargo Center, portrays a far less optimistic scenario. That study, an analysis by Hunden Partners, shows 21 fewer combined concerts between Wells Fargo Center and a Sixers arena, and 18 fewer family shows, versus the recently released CSL study. The net loss to Wells Fargo Center would be a 37% reduction in these two types of events, compared with a scenario in which Wells Fargo Center was the only major arena in town.

A community-impact analysis conducted by BJH Advisors and Sojourner Consulting found that half of the businesses in Chinatown are likely to experience net negative effects from the proposed downtown Sixers arena. Only four out of the 12 sectors identified in the report would likely experience significant benefits. Seven other types of businesses — typically those in community services and in the professional sector that are highly dependent on auto traffic — would be negatively affected. In addition, 57% of the businesses likely to see economic harm are legacy Chinatown businesses with strong community relationships, according to the report.

A separate traffic study said that if 40% of visitors to a new Sixers arena use mass transit — a goal set by the Sixers — then traffic around the arena would be manageable. Based on comparisons to other arenas in large cities, that share of transit use is attainable, but not a foregone conclusion, according to the study. At the Wells Fargo Center, only 9% of Flyers fans use mass transit, and only 6% use mass transit for concerts and other events.

The scenario of manageable traffic near a new Sixers arena also came with a warning. According to the report, even marginal increases in the share of auto trips “would result in gridlock at critical intersections.” The Hunden study commissioned by Comcast Spectacor projects that mass transit use to a new Sixers arena would, at best, be only marginally higher than the 15% who currently take mass transit to Wells Fargo Center, saying that fans would still highly prefer to drive and park.