🗣 Fetterman vs. Oz showdown

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🗓 There are 20 days until Election Day.

Debates can be an exciting, unfiltered look at the candidates, but this year might be the most intense matchup in recent Senate history, given Fetterman’s stroke and the intense focus on his health.

Oz, a cardiothoracic surgeon, has suggested Fetterman’s not up to the job of senator and also hasn’t been transparent about his condition. Fetterman, who has ramped up public events and the length of his stump speech in recent weeks, has said he’s fully capable of serving.

With only one debate (Fetterman insisted on a single event), it’ll be the first and only time many voters get to see both candidates speak outside of a TV ad. And it’ll be the only major debate of a massive campaign season in Pa., because Josh Shapiro and Doug Mastriano don’t have any scheduled in the governor’s race.

First some basics:

🎙 What’s the debate format?

The one-hour debate will air on Tuesday at 8 p.m. on TV stations across 62 counties statewide. It will also be livestreamed. Oz and Fetterman will debate from abc27 studios in Harrisburg. Radio stations will also have free access to air it.

It will be moderated by WHTM abc27 News anchor Dennis Owens and WPXI anchor Lisa Sylvester.

🔎 What we’re watching for

Fetterman’s health: Fetterman’s recovery from his stroke has become a national focus. He has done a number of interviews, many of them televised, but this will be the first and maybe only chance for voters to see him in an extended exchange, with no edits. He still has some problems processing speech, but he and his doctor say his cognition is fine. Aside from the substance of his answers, it’s a chance to show voters he’s well enough to do the job.

He clearly knows people are paying attention: On Wednesday, he released his latest doctor’s note. Julia had the scoop and the details. There are perils for Fetterman if he stumbles, but also risks for Oz, who could come across as cruel and insensitive if he attacks Fetterman over his health.

“You have to be really careful about how you handle that, particularly as a physician,” said Berwood Yost, of Franklin & Marshall College.

He noted that about half of Pennsylvania adults have a chronic health condition. “More people are like John Fetterman in terms of their health, dealing with some kind of health condition, than they are like Dr. Oz, who seems to be perfectly fit.”

How will the closed captioning work? Fetterman will use closed captions at the debate, as he has for all of his one-on-one media interviews, to ensure he understands the questions amid his auditory processing challenges. That means there will be a slight delay between the moment the moderator asks a question and when Fetterman answers it. Viewers will be told at the top of the debate that Fetterman’s using the technology.

What we don’t know is how that system will impact the back and forth you typically see at a debate. How much will the candidates address each other?

Can Oz relate? Oz is a polished daytime TV host who knows his camera angles and how to craft TV moments, but one of his biggest challenges has been proving he’s also a relatable Pennsylvanian.

We’re looking to see how the ultra-wealthy celeb tries to carve out some down-to-earth moments to drive home that a real person is under the TV gloss.

Fetterman’s debate demeanor: Even before his stroke, Fetterman wasn’t great at debates. He was visibly grouchy during the Senate primary debates and at one point bristled when asked to explain a basic piece of his policy (at what income level would he raise taxes?).

He has campaigned more on an ethos — “the union way of life” and “forgotten communities” — than wonky ideas. At times he can be expansive and make thoughtful arguments about his principles. At others, he’s gruff and seems miffed by the notion that he should have to explain himself at all.

Which Fetterman shows up on the biggest stage of his political career?

Does Oz actually answer some of the questions he’s dodged? Throughout his campaign, Oz has evaded several key policy questions related to guns, abortion rights, and the minimum wage.

Look for Fetterman to ask him again and again where he stands on Sen. Lindsey Graham’s bill that would ban abortion at 15 weeks. Most of Oz’s campaign has been about what he’s against: Fetterman, Joe Biden, Democrats, crime.

This debate could press him to explain what he’s actually in favor of. What’s his vision as a senator?

Fetterman on crime, Oz on abortion: Fetterman has faced a barrage of attack ads over his record on crime. Oz has been deluged by questions about his opposition to nearly all abortions.

How do they respond on the fly, when their opponents will be picking through their records? Do either have good, concise answers for the issues weighing on their candidacies?

🤔 Will the debate actually matter?

Sources we talk to think it will have more of an impact than debates usually do in these races, but how much is unclear.

“One of Fetterman’s major selling points (fair or not) was his massive size and strength. … Articulation is not as important as strength, and if he appears weak compared to Oz, who is about half his size, then he’s in a world of trouble,” said Shippensburg political science professor Allison Dagnes

“I’d argue this debate probably means more to this race than it has for any Senate race for the last 30 years,” said Matt Beynon, a Republican strategist.

Beynon argues candidates don’t tend to win races in a debate, but they can lose them.

“I think with this one, a lot of folks can relate to someone going through a serious health problem … and it’s not mean, but it’s just a demanding job, and they’ll be looking for, ‘Can you stand up there and do the job?’”

That’s assuming those key undecided voters pay attention, though. Most people who watch debates are there to cheer on their chosen candidate. Some voters on the fence might watch. But a lot of undecided voters just aren’t that heavily engaged to begin with, and so might not tune in for an hour on a Tuesday night.

“I’m not sure even a debate performance can move independent people – if there are any of those people left,” Democratic strategist Mustafa Rashed said. “Is there anyone out there really trying to decide between the two of them?”

It’s more likely, Rashed argued, that people are deciding whether to vote for a candidate or sit the race out, which could matter in a tight race.

Still, even if people don’t watch, we know that viral moments or political face-plants can take on a life of their own, especially in this race.

💬 “In the next 30 days, I want you to talk to your family, talk to your friends. … If you have wronged somebody, you need to make it right and then talk about politics. This is not a time to be bashful or shy, because our country is at stake. You all look great, you look well rested. … By Nov. 9, I want you all to look like crap … because you have given every possible thing to this election.”

— RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel speaking to canvassers at a GOTV rally with Mehmet Oz.

(For the record, we’re ahead of schedule. It’s Oct. 19, and this election already has us looking like crap.)

⛪️ A surrogate’s push back on crime

Democrats have struggled to respond to GOP attacks over crime. But at Fetterman’s Delaware County rally, Democratic District Attorney Jack Stollsteimer offered a defense that may have an appeal to the left and the right — by citing religion and drops in crime under Democratic leadership from liberal policies.

He pointed to progress made in Chester to drive down gun violence and homicides in the last few years.

“Democrats are not soft on crime. What we are is smart on crime,” Stollsteimer said to cheers.

Stollsteimer went on to also defend Fetterman’s role at the Board of Pardons in a uniquely DelCo way.

“What John has done is had the audacity to believe something that I was taught in the ‘60s, by the Sisters of Mercy, when I grew up here and went to St. Denis, and that’s that we are all God’s children. We are also all sinners and we are all striving in our lives to accept one of God’s greatest gifts, and that is the gift of redemption.”

🤥 Liar, liar

During the President Donald Trump years, the word “lie” became a prominent part of media coverage as the former president routinely said significant stuff that was obviously untrue. Political campaigns have noticed.

Virtually every day now brings press releases claiming a candidate “lied” about something — even when really it’s at worst, typical political shading and sometimes not even a contradiction.

We’ve seen claims that candidates “lied” because paid staffers were part of a campaign event or because a swing voter in an ad had actually changed parties years ago. Or because a candidate changed positions, or just made multiple statements about an issue that each had different nuances.

It’s a powerful thing to catch someone flat-out lying. But now it seems to just be a buzzword.

🤝 Seeking Oz-Shapiro voters

Campaigns say a lot (trust us, we know firsthand). But you can tell what they really think is important by where they put their money.

One recent ad buy tells a story itself. The GOP group American Crossroads just launched an ad pointing out differences between Fetterman and Shapiro when it comes to votes on the state’s Board of Pardons, and they’ve bought $4 million of airtime.

It signals the continuing GOP hopes to land “Shapiro-Oz” voters while painting Fetterman as outside the mainstream. If Shapiro really wins the governor’s race by as much as polls suggest, Oz will need some crossover votes to have a chance.

The challenge for Oz? Shapiro and Fetterman are starting to appear together at events, making it clear they’re a team, as Julia covered last weekend.

📰 Oz went big. Fetterman went bigger. Oz finally got his fund-raising going after mostly paying for his Senate campaign himself. He had by far his biggest fund-raising quarter over July, August and September. The problem? Fetterman went even bigger, roughly doubling the record he had set in the spring. Fetterman has more money for the homestretch. Jon and our colleague Aseem Shukla broke it down here.

🖥 Doug Mastriano was live. Our colleagues created an interactive look at how the far-right Pennsylvania state senator wielded the power of Facebook Live to secure the Republican nomination for governor. It’s a unique look inside a campaign that’s been both closed off and in plain sight.

📰 Fetterman talks to The Inquirer: If you want a preview of where Fetterman stands on some issues, we sat in on his interview with The Inquirer editorial board last week. (We do not have any role in the editorial board’s endorsements or opinion pieces, though, and they have no role in our coverage). Fetterman was asked about senators he would emulate, bills he’d support and the Supreme Court. He was pretty brief and vague at times, though he was at least there. Oz declined a similar invitation and has ducked numerous interview requests.

📺 Fracking flip-flop? Fetterman has repeatedly said he’s not against fracking – despite Republican claims he’d aim to ban the lucrative practice. But CNN found a 2018 interview in which Fetterman told a liberal YouTube channel, “I don’t support fracking at all, and I never have.” It could complicate his attempt to appeal to the kind of places that rely on the industry for their economic foundations. Fetterman’s campaign said he was critical of fracking but was satisfied by a 2016 law tightening environmental rules around it. But, CNN, noted, “the campaign did not address why Fetterman then said in 2018 that he doesn’t support fracking and ‘never’ will.”

We’ll be coming to you from Harrisburg next week with some answers to the questions we posed in this edition. In the meantime, enjoy some fall color while you can! 🍁