House of Doug vs. House of Josh | Election Newsletter

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It’s mid-September and while fewer presidents visited the state this week, campaign events still kept us very busy. Julia tried to unplug Sunday with some House of the Dragon (less incest, please). Jon figures he’s got all the political scheming and unusual characters he needs from covering the Senate race.

This week, we’re breaking down the critical Pennsylvania governor’s race between state Sen. Doug Mastriano and Attorney General Josh Shapiro.

Here’s where it stands and what we’re looking for with just over eight weeks to go.

— Jonathan Tamari, Julia Terruso, (@JonathanTamari, @JuliaTerruso, election@inquirer.com)

🔎 First, have you heard about the stakes?

Every election gets framed as the most important ever, but this gubernatorial race could actually have the most direct impact on Pennsylvania – and even the country – of any on the ballot this fall.

Pennsylvania’s state legislature is Republican-controlled and will likely (though not certainly) stay that way. That means the next governor can either sign or veto bills directly impacting abortion access, voting, and a wide range of other issues where a conservative legislature would like to pull the state rightward. They’ve already tried adding abortion restrictions beyond the state’s 24-week limit, and many Republicans have vowed to roll back mail voting.

And the next gov will have significant influence over the next presidential election.

The governor appoints the state’s top election official, so how elections are run in Pennsylvania, and certified in 2024, could be determined this November. Mastriano led Pennsylvania’s election denial movement, is a loyal ally of former President Donald Trump, and has vowed to support new restrictions on voting.

Shapiro, as attorney general, pushed back against attempts to usurp the 2020 results, and has vowed to block any moves that would limit voting.

Pennsylvania, of course, was pivotal in the last two presidential races, and is almost certain to be critical again in 2024.

That’s in addition to all of the day-to-day work of a governor: proposing a budget, addressing crime and inflation in the state, and being the boss to tens of thousands of state employees, not to mention the face of the commonwealth.

🔎 Shapiro has grown his leads, but it’s still closer than many thought it would be.

After early Democratic worries, recent polls show Shapiro with around a 10-point lead. But that might not be very comforting to Democrats considering how far to the right they say Mastriano is, and how unconventional a campaign the Republican has run.

Shapiro has spent more than $18 million on television ads since the end of the May primary – against zero for Mastriano – and yet no one really expects the race will be a blowout.

Polls, of course, have been wrong before. But this race is increasingly becoming a test of whether burning the old political playbook (the one that says you campaign to your base in the primary and then to the center in the general, while also spending money and talking to reporters) could work for Mastriano.

Recall: Mastriano was predicted to do so poorly that his Republican opponents teamed up to try and take him down in the primary. Shapiro even ran ads for Mastriano because he so badly wanted to face him.

But Mastriano has a fervent grassroots following, and now Republicans who once opposed him as too extreme are rallying behind him. Remind you of anyone?

Supporters chanted his name at Trump’s rally in Wilkes-Barre earlier this month.

Mastriano, though, is trying to win in an unusual way: He’s essentially communicating only with people who already agree with him. His interviews are almost entirely limited to hard-right outlets. Reporters are usually either banned or kept at a distance at his public events. He usually doesn’t take questions from even supporters.

That’s a risky strategy in a state where Republicans usually need to win some swing voters in order to succeed.

Mastriano seems to be banking on emulating Trump’s 2016 win by drawing out huge numbers of voters in less populated parts of the state to overcome expected losses in the suburbs and big cities.

He’s focused campaign speeches on cultural issues like banning transgender women from school sports. And while he’s spoken less about abortion during the general election, his stance in the primary put him at the extreme right on the issue: supporting an abortion ban with no exceptions, including for the life of the pregnant person.

🔎 Shapiro is talking to everyone. Mastriano is talking to MAGA world.

Shapiro has won support from some Republicans, largely the same small segment that also opposed Trump. He launched his general election campaign from Johnstown – a symbol of blue-collar Pennsylvania – and he’s campaigned heavily in the needed suburbs and in Philadelphia. He’s tried to present a message that he’ll be a governor for everyone.

As a longtime official from Montgomery County, he’s got a base in the vote-rich Southeast portion of the state, and is heavily courting Black voters in Philly.

He’s warned repeatedly that freedom is under threat: that of women to choose on abortion, the freedom to vote, the freedom to choose elected officials through a valid election.

The narrow race is likely evidence of a few things. The national political atmosphere still remains favorable to Republicans in the midterm and inflation is still running hot.

And second, Pennsylvania is gonna Pennsylvania.

💬 “Mr. Fetterman is asking voters for a six-year contract without giving them enough information to make sound judgments about whether he’s up for such a demanding job.”

―The Washington Post editorial board, making a foray in PA politics and urging Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman to debate at least twice, and reveal more about his medical condition as he recovers from a May stroke.

We’re not sure how much the Post influences Pa. voters, but it shows how much traction the debate issue, and questions over Fetterman’s health, are getting.

🎸 ‘Rock star’ Dave

It’s not often that the second-place finisher in a primary gets a shout out during the general election, but that’s what happened during Mehmet Oz’s rally in Bucks County Saturday. Sen. John Kennedy (R., La.) was in the middle of a long riff on Oz, the GOP Senate nominee, when he diverged. Turning to Oz’s main GOP primary rival, he called Dave McCormick a “rock star.”

“You can write this down and take it home to mom: Dave McCormick has a real future in Pennsylvania politics if he wants,” Kennedy said.

McCormick has reportedly been eyeing another potential run as soon as 2024, against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey. National Republicans seem like they’re already on board.

🔔 Fetterman finally came to Philly

Fetterman made a stop in West Philadelphia on Monday. He hasn’t spent much time at all in the city, prioritizing more rural areas, often in the Western part of the state.

He took a stroll along the famous 52nd Street corridor, talking to small-business owners with Council members Kendra Brooks, Jamie Gauthier, and Isaiah Thomas. The walkabout lasted about an hour (reporters were not invited, to our chagrin).

Thomas, who had never met Fetterman before, said Democrats in the city are prepared to work hard for him, even if he hasn’t visited much. His advice to Fetterman is the same for any politician running this year: Come back. “I’m never gonna say anybody’s  spending enough time in Philadelphia.”

⌨️ This page has been updated

We told you last week about the disappearing “Issues” section on the campaign web site for Republican congressional candidate Lisa Scheller, who’s running in the Lehigh Valley. Her campaign said it was just a work in progress.

It appears to be back, at least in part, with 10 issues covered, including taxes, inflation, and term limits – but abortion, listed as a concern during her primary, is not included. Democrats have noted that many Republicans have scrubbed abortion from their official sites after emphasizing the issue during their primary campaigns.

We also noticed that Oz, in two stops to the suburbs this weekend, didn’t mention abortion once. (What’s back on Scheller’s site: a direct mention of Silberline, the manufacturing company she leads).

📰 Doug Mastriano’s security bubble insulates him from prying eyes and dissenting views. Our colleagues Bill Bender and Chris Brennan got a relatively rare look (for reporters) inside Mastriano campaign events, producing a story that has gotten national attention. “Mastriano has essentially walled himself off from the general public, traveling within a bubble of security guards and jittery aides who aim to not only keep him safe, but ensure he only comes into contact with true believers,” they wrote. Worth your time.

📰 What are auditory processing issues, and how are they treated? So what’s going on with Fetterman’s health? Julia took a detailed look at what we know and what we don’t as the LG has resumed campaigning, but with some evident limitations.

📰 After rallying with Trump, Mehmet Oz is pivoting toward the suburbs that have abandoned the GOP. Oz held three events in five days in the Philadelphia region last week, as he tries to build support in the vote-rich suburbs that have devastated the GOP in recent years. We looked at what his message is, and what challenges he faces as the ‘burbs have swung left. Plus: Helpful charts!

📰 How Josh Shapiro is trying to turn out Black voters in Philly, a crucial group for Democrats. Our colleague Anna Orso has an up-close look at how Shapiro is courting Black voters in Philly, one of the most crucial voting blocs for Democrats.

📰 Oz rallies in Bucks; Fetterman in MontCo. The fight for the suburbs was truly on last weekend. Jon was in Bucks to see Oz and Kennedy Saturday while Julia was in MontCo with Fetterman and a host of Democratic allies on Sunday.