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We’re back! It’s just past Labor Day, the unofficial start of the final campaign sprint, and we’re ready to bring you insight and analysis as Pennsylvania hosts some of the country’s most important elections.

Jon is already working on his endurance, with a 14-mile run Saturday followed by a nearly six-hour Trump rally. Julia has largely forgotten what exercise is, but she’s excited to rediscover it in mid-November

— Jonathan Tamari, Julia Terruso, (@JonathanTamari, @JuliaTerruso, election@inquirer.com)

When we launched this newsletter, we told you Pennsylvania was again at the center of the political universe. That hasn’t changed — as evidenced by three visits from Joe Biden and one from Donald Trump last week alone.

What’s maybe surprising is where Democrats appear to be positioned. Midterms typically swing against the party in power, Biden is suffering from awful (though slightly improving) approval ratings, and inflation remains a major worry. But the Supreme Court ruling ending a constitutional right to abortion has tilted this year’s election on its head, and the GOP nominees in Pennsylvania’s top races have each, for their own reasons, struggled to find their footing.

In case you’ve spent the summer enjoying yourself instead of following every political move, we’re starting with a rundown on Pa.’s Senate race and what we’re watching in the final two months.

We’ll cover the gubernatorial contest next week.

Where it stands: John Fetterman won the meme wars over the summer.

The LG and Democratic nominee relentlessly trolled Oz over his longtime New Jersey residency, with help from everything from Jersey Shore star Snooki to a banner flown over the Jersey Shore. (And please, for the love of God, don’t make us get into “crudite.”)

It was a devastating way to brand Oz as a fraud – rich, out of touch, and out of state. And it gave Fetterman’s campaign the appearance of action even as he was off the campaign trail, healing from a stroke, while Oz held scores of in-person events.

Twitter, of course, isn’t real life, but after Oz was bruised by a brutal GOP primary, his campaign remains weighed down by negative approval ratings.

But Oz has seemed to find some traction recently, and after early polls showed a huge Fetterman lead, more recent surveys have indicated a fairly tight race. Oz’s team has taken a more sharp-edged approach to Fetterman’s health, arguing he won’t agree to debate because he’s either trying to hide from his record, or his health is worse than Fetterman is letting on – a claim the LG’s campaign forcefully denies. (Fetterman says he’ll debate, but not on the schedule Oz asks for; he hasn’t said, though, when he’ll get on stage).

Oz has also targeted crime as a pivotal issue, hammering Fetterman over his work granting clemency as chair of the state’s board of pardons.

What we’re watching for: Fetterman has resumed public campaigning, but at a pace slower than Oz and with lingering speech issues stemming from his stroke. It’s one thing to lay low over the summer. But it’s now go-time for, Fetterman to show voters he’s up for the job. If he’s limited in his campaign travels, it could undercut his strength as a Democrat willing to show up and listen in rural areas that favor Republicans.

Oz has a wider challenge: He needs to consolidate GOP support while also appealing to swing voters and tearing down Fetterman’s standing. And he has to do it all with what seems to be far less campaign money. He has begun to try to chip away at Fetterman’s working-class image, pointing to Fetterman’s comfortable upbringing and his parents’ financial support deep into his adulthood. And he tried to work both ends of the GOP spectrum the last few days, rallying with Donald Trump in Northeastern Pennsylvania, and then doing an event with Sen. Pat Toomey, a Trump critic, in Philly.

What about the issues? They’ve gotten pretty short shrift so far.

In a race featuring two candidates whose appeals largely hinge on personality, the early stages of the contest have focused more on style than substance. That’s not necessarily a bad strategy; voters often make decisions based more on who they trust than a policy checklist.

Abortion is a major motivator for Democrats, and they’re likely to hammer Oz for supporting a ban on the procedure other than for rape, incest, or to save the mother. Fetterman has long made legalizing marijuana a calling card. He also released a plan for lowering inflation and costs, but it was threadbare on details. Oz has mostly vowed to oppose Biden and take tough stands on crime. Neither has delved much into specifics.

Wild cards: While there’s growing optimism among Democrats, politics can change fast. If inflation or gas prices spike again, the political landscape could quickly shift. The various investigations into Trump have the potential to keep him in the headlines, reminding swing voters why they largely rejected him in 2020, which could weigh on his endorsed nominees. But Biden also looms as a motivator for Republicans.

More specifically in Pa., the questions about Fetterman’s health defy easy answers. Everyone heals differently, and his ability to sustain a busy campaign schedule is an unknown that could have national implications.

Both campaigns assume that the race will tighten, and stay tight to the finish. After all, it’s Pennsylvania. Elections here don’t come easy.

A potpourri of Oz news:

At a Tuesday press conference pressuring Fetterman to debate, Oz took a variety of questions from reporters. (He made sure to note that Fetterman hasn’t done a press conference during the general election).

Scheller’s shifting site:

During her GOP primary in the Lehigh Valley, Republican congressional candidate Lisa Scheller had an “Issues” section on her web site that touched on a range of conservative priorities – including election integrity, protecting “the right to life,” securing the border, and other topics.

Now? The entire issues section is gone. And while Scheller’s bio still mentions her work leading a local manufacturing company, it has dropped references to the name, Silberline, as Democrats have attacked the company over its facilities in China.

Dems have been on the hunt for these kinds of online scrubs ever since the Supreme Court decision turned abortion into a central topic. The Scheller campaign says they “are simply updating our website, it should be finished shortly.” She’s seeking to unseat Democratic incumbent Susan Wild in PA7.

“I have a limit to how many political campaigns I’m getting involved in. I’m gonna stick with the Senate race and a handful of House races.”

-Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, when asked if he’ll support State Sen. Doug Mastriano for governor.

Thursday, Sept. 8: Oz holds a town hall with Nikki Haley, former South Carolina governor and Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations.

Saturday, Sept. 10: Oz campaigns with Sen. John Kennedy (R., La.) in Newtown.

Sunday, Sept. 11: Fetterman holds an abortion rights rally with U.S. Reps. Madeleine Dean and Mary Gay Scanlon in Montgomery County.

Thursday, Sept. 15: Doug Mastriano rallies with Rick Santorum in Drexel Hill.

These might not exactly be beach reading, so if you missed some of our more in-depth stories over the summer, here’s a chance to catch up:

John Fetterman’s parents gave him money into his 40s. Republicans say that undercuts his blue-collar image. Jon looked at Fetterman’s comfortable, suburban upbringing, and his parents’ financial support deep into his adulthood. Republicans are pointing to that aid, and Fetterman’s long reliance on his family, to argue he’s not the working-class everyman his look conveys.

Mehmet Oz’s new hometown is a private, religious community where opinions on him are split. Julia spent days reporting from Oz’s new hometown, Bryn Athyn, a small, idyllic and closely-knit church community where people have mixed feelings about their new celebrity political neighbor.

Fetterman keeps attacking Oz for being from New Jersey. That’s resonating in parochial Pa. “If the guy had moved from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh, do you think it would be the same?” Julia’s smart story on why Oz’s longtime residency in NJ, specifically, is particularly problematic in a state with as much chip-on-the-shoulder local pride as Pa.

Pa. GOP leaders once spurned Doug Mastriano. Now they’re giving him a ‘second look’ and fund-raising support. The Republican establishment said he was too extreme and would cost them the election. But once he won the nomination, they put their money and muscle behind him anyway. Sound familiar? Bill Bender and Chris Brennan on how the GOP establishment came around to Doug Mastriano.

Doug Mastriano is deleting his videos from Facebook as he runs for Pa. governor. Over the summer, more than a dozen of Mastriano’s Facebook videos were deleted, including ones where he casts doubt on climate change, predicts voter fraud this year, and calls the fight against abortion “the most important issue of our lifetime.” Bender explored what looks like an attempt to scrub some of his more controversial pronouncements.