What we saw at the big debate

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The morning after the big debate, Democrats are talking about Oz’s answer on abortion and Republicans (and some Democrats) are talking about Fetterman’s lackluster performance across several questions, as he continues to recover from a stroke.

Here’s what we’re talking about (and for a deeper version of this analysis, click here).

🗓 Meanwhile, it’s 13 days until the election.

— Jonathan Tamari, Julia Terruso, (@JonathanTamari, @JuliaTerruso, election@inquirer.com)

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1️⃣ Fetterman’s struggles after stroke

The debate featured significant discussion of serious policy issues — and some familiar personal attacks. But we’ve heard most of those arguments for months. What was new was seeing Fetterman on stage, and there was a wide consensus, even among many Democrats, that it didn’t go well.

Fetterman, to be clear, appeared able to follow the debate and the questions, using closed captioning to help with his auditory processing issues. He pledged to support a “union way of life” and “forgotten communities.” But the impact of his stroke was visible: his answers were often halting and short, especially as the hour wore on.

In one notable example, he was asked about past criticism of fracking and his current support for a major Pennsylvania industry. Fetterman responded:

“I do support fracking,” before pausing, and then adding, “I support fracking, and I stand, and I do support fracking.”

Republicans immediately circulated the clip on social media. Sen. Pat Toomey (R., Pa.), an Oz supporter who isn’t seeking reelection, tweeted, “Anyone watching today could tell there was only one person on that stage who can represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. Senate: @droz.”

Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor, anticipated the attacks, casting himself as an underdog who would fight for others who have struggled or been “knocked down.”

There’s a difference between struggling to speak (which Fetterman has acknowledged) and struggling to comprehend or think. And Fetterman has done several recent interviews with new outlets, including with The Inquirer and the PennLive editorial board in which his speech was more fluent, and stumbles more rare.

He’s released letters from a cardiologist and a primary care physician saying he’s in good health and has no cognitive deficits, despite the language challenges. He would not commit at the debate to releasing more medical records.

Several Pennsylvania Democrats on Wednesday were quietly questioning whether the campaign should have agreed to the debate, its rapid-fire format, and if Fetterman did enough to prepare. Others stressed not debating could have hurt him more and described it as a rough night for the Democrat but not necessarily a determinative one.

What remains to be seen is how many people tuned in, and if they found Fetterman’s answers worrying, or just real.

2️⃣ Oz stance on abortion: Women, doctors, and ‘political leaders’

While Fetterman’s performance was the primary focus for Republicans, one answer from Oz gave Democrats new fuel.

Asked about a proposed national ban on abortion 🔑 after 15 weeks of pregnancy, Oz said it should be up to states to decide — including by local politicians.

“I want women, doctors, local political leaders letting the democracy that’s always allowed our nation to thrive to put the best ideas forward so states can decide for themselves,” Oz said.

Democrats emphasized the “political leaders” part of the response, arguing Oz would allow politicians to interfere with women’s health choices.

This morning, Fetterman’s campaign released an ad saying Oz would let “local politicians like Doug Mastriano,” ban abortions, without exceptions.

Mastriano, if elected governor, would be the local leader with the most direct impact on abortion law in the state. He has said he believes in a total abortion ban with no exceptions.

Oz refused to explicitly say how he would vote on the 15-week ban proposed by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.), hinting he opposed it without saying he would vote “no.”

Fetterman said he would support reinstating federal abortion law as it stood under Roe v. Wade, and Democrats see the issue as a key factor for suburban women.

“If you believe that the choice for abortion belongs between you and your doctor, that’s what I fight for,” Fetterman said.

3️⃣ Oz dodges, but tries to claim the center

Abortion wasn’t the only issue on which Oz gave a fuzzy answer.

Asked about the bipartisan gun law signed this summer, Oz said parts of the legislation “make sense” but others need improvement, without saying how he would have voted. Pressed on raising the minimum wage, Oz argued the private sector should be relied on to bring wages up, and said a mandatory $15 minimum wage would result in closed businesses. Oz’s main message, though, was that he is a centrist. He repeatedly used the word “balance,” and he called Fetterman “extreme” at least nine times.

“We need to send someone to Washington who understands the importance of balance, sensible decision-making, and a common-sense approach,” Oz said at one point.

The pivot toward the center comes as Oz has also run more positive ads pitching himself as a doctor and a father striving for “balance” in Washington.

Democrats say Oz’s rhetoric is contradicted by his positions on abortion, the minimum wage, and Medicare, and his close ties to former President Donald Trump 🔑 (and he said he’d support another Trump presidential run). They argue Oz is saying whatever’s most helpful rather than having core values.

💬 “You compelled us, asked us, prayed for us, urged us to run for office, and we’re doing it for you.”

— Doug Mastriano, speaking to supporters in Allentown Friday, as reported by our colleague William Bender. Facing a likely loss against Democrat Josh Shapiro, the Republican gubernatorial candidate is casting his campaign as a selfless sacrifice for his backers.

📺 There’s no escape

Good luck avoiding politics when you watch TV for the next two weeks. Political consultants say $1 million is a decent amount to spend on a weeklong ad buy in Pa. But the latest figures show more than $45 million is slated for the next two weeks – and that’s only for the Senate race. The number ticked a little higher this week when a couple of Republican groups committed an additional $6 million to the airwaves (per POLITICO) If you needed any more sign of how important this race is, there you go.

🏈 Sports and politics

Between the Eagles-Steelers game Sunday and the World Series starting Friday, we have a feeling we might know where some of those millions might go. The Republican group American Crossroads paid $100,000 for a single ad during the Birds game. By comparison, one weekday spot on the CBS Evening News cost $2,000.

💰 Oz cash

In the last week, Oz has made two more $1 million contributions to his own campaign -- bringing his total spending to more than $23 million in the primary and general elections combined.

📬 Abortion and swing districts

Democrats are counting on abortion rights as an issue that could help them in competitive congressional districts, like the 7th in the Lehigh Valley and 17th in the Pittsburgh suburbs. So maybe that’s why National Right to Life endorsed nearly all of the GOP House candidates in Pa., but left off the Republicans in those two districts. Yet mailers in those districts promoting Oz are also urging voters to support the Republican candidate, Chris Deluzio (in the 17th) and Lisa Scheller (in the 7th). Democrats see a sly way for an anti-abortion group to back these contenders, without making it so public. National Right to Life didn’t respond to a request for comment.

👥 It’s always about Scranton

President Joe Biden will headline a virtual fund-raiser for Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright today in the battleground district that includes Scranton. And on Thursday, the president and VP Kamala Harris will speak in Philly at a Democratic State Party dinner. Biden also recently headlined a Fetterman fund-raiser. Biden hasn’t been incredibly active on the trail yet, but Pa. (and Scranton) are critical to him politically and personally.

🙋‍♂️ Will the real Trump voter please stand up?

Speaking of the Northeast, Cartwright’s Republican challenger Jim Bognet questioned the validity of a Trump supporter featured in a recent Cartwright ad. The ad has two men, one in a Biden shirt, the other in a MAGA hat, conceding they don’t agree on much but that they’re both backing Cartwright. (Pretty smart take in a purple district that Trump won twice).

Bognet called the Republican, John Petrizzo, a fake Trump supporter at a debate. (Petrizzo had been a registered Democrat until 2020). That sent Cartwright’s team into defense mode – blasting out a press release with a statement from Petrizzo in which he says he’s a proud supporter of Trump, who voted for him twice “and will vote for him again when he runs in 2024.”

“I will also be voting for Doug Mastriano, Dr. Mehmet Oz and Congressman Matt Cartwright.” Petrizzo goes on to call Bognet a “swamp creature,” and encourages fellow MAGA movement members to vote for Cartwright.

It’s the homestretch. Less than two weeks to go. Enjoy Eagles-Steelers and the World Series; just keep the mute button handy if you’re sick of the ads.