Phillies would be challenged by new-look division | Extra Innings
Many of the best teams in the majors last year would reside in the Phillies' division under the latest plan that has surfaced. Making the playoffs would be quite an accomplishment for the Phillies.
The Phillies should have spent the week in San Francisco reminiscing with Gabe Kapler. They should be getting ready for a six-game homestand to begin a stretch of playing 12 of their next 15 games in South Philly. Instead, Joe Girardi was reading bedtime stories Wednesday night on Instagram, NBC Sports Philadelphia replayed a May game from 2018, and the ticket office is preparing to offer refunds. But, the season isn’t done yet. MLB appears committed to playing baseball this summer and momentum seems to be building for a season of some sort to begin in July. It might be time to play ball.
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— Matt Breen (extrainnings@inquirer.com)
How would Phillies fare in a new-look division?
It seemed hard enough for the Phillies to overcome the Nationals and Mets this season for a division title. But how about adding the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays to the mix? If Major League Baseball’s latest proposal for the 2020 season goes through, the Phillies could have quite the mountain to climb.
Earlier this week, USA Today said MLB is considering a 2020 season that would begin in June or July with teams playing home games at their traditional parks and not at spring training sites the way previous plans did.
But the teams would be placed in 10-team regional divisions, foregoing this season the traditional National and American League alignment. The teams would only play divisional games before advancing to an expanded postseason held in warm-weather cities. The three divisions - East, Central, and West - would limit the travel of a traditional season.
The Phillies would play in the East Division against the Mets, Red Sox, Nationals, Orioles, Pirates, Blue Jays, Rays, and Marlins. The new-look East includes the World Champion Nationals, 103-win Yankees, 96-win Rays, and three other teams that finished 2019 better than the Phillies.
The Phillies will happily avoid the Braves, who would move this season to the Central after winning the National League the last two seasons. The Pirates and Orioles would be a welcome addition. But the rest of the division - even the Blue Jays - would be tough.
In March, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections predicted that 12 teams - the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Twins, Indians, Astros, Angels, Mets, Nationals, Reds, and Dodgers - would win at least 85 games in a traditional 162-game season. Of those 12 teams, five - the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Mets, and Nationals - are in the new-look East Division. The Phillies were projected to win just 77 games, placing them a half-game ahead of the Blue Jays for the sixth-best projection among teams in the new division.
Yes, the playoffs would be expanded this season. But the Phillies will have their work cut out even if 14 teams - nearly half of MLB - are invited to the postseason. If baseball does return this summer, there will certainly be grumblings about the legitimacy of a championship won in a non-traditional season.
But it would be hard to discredit the Phillies if they were to make the playoffs from a division that features five of baseball’s best teams. The Phils have played eight straight seasons without reaching the playoffs. If that streak breaks in 2020 with a new-look division, it would be quite the accomplishment.
The rundown
The Phillies said Wednesday that they will be offering refunds to any fans who purchased tickets to games that were scheduled in April or May. Fans will be given two options: roll over the money from those games for credit toward future games or receive your money back. The team’s ticket office is in the process of reaching out to fans.
On our latest Extra Innings podcast, we looked at 1977’s Black Friday. The Phillies were one out away in the ninth inning - with a 99-percent win probability - when everything fell apart. Scott Lauber, Bob Brookover, and myself dissected what is arguably the worst loss in Phillies history. Have a listen and let us know what you think.
The Baseball Hall of Fame canceled its induction ceremony scheduled for July in Cooperstown, N.Y. Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ted Simmons, and Marvin Miller will be inducted next summer alongside the members of the 2022 class. Maybe Dick Allen will be there.
Alec Bohm signed this week with super-agent Scott Boras, who also represents Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, and a cast of other Phillies. Bohm was expected to begin this season in triple A but eventually arrive in the majors sometime in 2020. It will be interesting to see how the Phillies use Bohm if they are able to play this year.
Major League Baseball continues to negotiate a new deal with Minor League Baseball which could lead to the elimination of the Phillies’ affiliate in Williamsport. But the Crosscutters, who play in the short-season Class A New York-Penn League, said Sunday that they “look forward to continuing to be part of the Williamsport landscape in 2021 and beyond.”
Important dates
Today: Nick Pivetta made his major-league debut in 2017.
Sunday: Ben Revere, the last Phillies batter to hit .300, turns 32 years old.
Monday: Ryan Howard hit the seventh grand slam of his career to tie Mike Schmidt’s franchise record in 2009.
Wednesday: Cole Hamels greets rookie Bryce Harper with a beanball in D.C. in 2012.
Stat of the day
Since the start of the 2018 season, Phillies’ pitchers have a 3.98 ERA and .727 OPS against the nine teams - Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays, Nationals, Marlins, Mets, and Pirates - that they could be aligned with this season in a regional division. Against all other teams, the staff ERA was 4.65 and opponents had a .777 OPS. The lineup hit .248 with a .747 OPS against those nine clubs, while hitting .240 and posting a .727 OPS against the rest of baseball. The Phillies are 77-74 since 2018 against the nine teams that would make up the new division and 84-89 against the rest of baseball. Maybe the Phillies could hold their own in the new-look East.
From the mailbag
Send questions by email or on Twitter @matt_breen.
Question: If there is no baseball season this year what happens to player contracts? Does it make Jake Arrieta a free agent and put Zach Wheeler into the second year of his contract in 2021 instead of the first even though he hasn’t played any games as a Phillie yet, for example? - Joe G. via email.
Answer: Thanks, Joe. If there’s no baseball this season, this will still count as a season for player’s contracts. J.T. Realmuto will be eligible for free agency, as will Jake Arrieta, Tommy Hunter, and David Robertson. Andrew McCutchen will have one year remaining on his three-year contract, Zack Wheeler will have four, and Bryce Harper will have 11. The league and the players’ association came to an agreement in March just after the coronavirus delayed the season.