The Phillies are keeping tabs on free-agent leftovers while weighing payroll flexibility for in-season moves | Extra Innings

Opening day, as much as any sporting event on the calendar, is a symbol of renewal, a fresh start, hope for a bright future. Usually, though, those themes are limited to baseball.

Not this year.

The city announced Tuesday that it will ease its restrictions on crowd size to align with Pennsylvania’s coronavirus guidelines. For the Phillies, that means hosting as many as 8,800 fans, 20% of capacity at Citizens Bank Park, for the April 1 opener against the Atlanta Braves.

“I’ve been through a number of opening days, and I probably can’t tell you a whole lot of specifics about most of them,” Phillies manager Joe Girardi said. “This is one that we’ll probably never forget because of what we’ve been through the last year and how appreciative we are that fans are back in the stands.”

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— Scott Lauber (extrainnings@inquirer.com)

Two weeks have gone by since training camps opened in Florida and Arizona, and still, 43 free agents are unsigned, according to the tracker at MLB Trade Rumors.

It makes sense, then, that the Phillies would watch the market.

“Just to keep a pulse of what’s going on,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said by phone last week. “Because you never know.”

Indeed, what if Jackie Bradley Jr. awoke one day and decided to take a one-year contract? A team that needs a center fielder would want to know about that. Or if Jake Odorizzi dropped his price from the $15 million per year that he reportedly wants? Surely he could strengthen a lot of rotations, the Phillies’ included.

But here’s the thing: The Phillies’ payroll stands at roughly $187 million, $198 million for luxury-tax purposes. And that’s without relievers Brandon Kintzler ($3 million if he makes the team) and Tony Watson ($3 million) and outfielder Matt Joyce ($1.5 million), all of whom are competing for opening-day roster spots.

Phillies ownership spent more freely this winter than most observers expected, especially after citing $145 million in revenue losses in 2020 and cutting 80 jobs. But managing partner John Middleton is also on the record that he would agree to exceed the luxury-tax threshold only if the Phillies are World Series contenders.

Let’s assume, then, that the Phillies aren’t ready to cross the $210 million barrier. Most contenders like to leave wiggle room for in-season moves. It’s possible the Phillies will go into the season with less than $10 million with which to play.

So, here’s the question for Dombrowski: If an opportunity were to arise to add a free-agent leftover — say, reliever Shane Greene, for instance — would the Phillies be better off striking now or waiting to gauge their needs before the trade deadline?

Never one to tip his hand, Dombrowski said the Phillies “don’t necessarily anticipate” signing a free agent before the end of spring training.

But, well, you never know.

“Some [agents] may say, ‘Our guy, the more he’s looked at it, he’s not getting the finances that he wants and he’d really like to sign with the Phillies and he’ll do this for X,’” Dombrowski said. “You want to at least be aware of it so you know what’s taking place.”

The impending return of fans to Citizens Bank Park is terrific news, but city health commissioner Thomas Farley did have a few words of caution, as Matt Breen writes.

As for Tuesday’s other big story, Odúbel Herrera played in his first game for the Phillies since his arrest on domestic assault charges 645 days ago. He said later that he “made a big mistake.” Now, he’s hoping his teammates and Phillies fans can forgive him.

Looking for clues about how Girardi might resolve the center-field competition among Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, and Scott Kingery? Consider what went down 12 years ago in the New York Yankees’ camp.

Come for Bob Brookover’s beard envy, and stay to find out if he thinks Archie Bradley has the stuff to match his distinctive closer look.

If Kintzler, Watson, and Joyce play well in spring training, the Phillies could be facing a 40-man roster crunch. Girardi figures it’ll be a nice problem to have.

In case you missed them, a recap and Steven Falk’s photo gallery from Tuesday’s game against the Blue Jays and Monday’s against the Orioles (recap, photos).

Today: Zach Eflin faces the Tigers in Lakeland, 1:05 p.m.

Tomorrow: The Yankees visit Clearwater, 1:05 p.m. (NBCSP+)

Friday: Phillies host the Pirates, 1:05 p.m. (NBCSP+)

March 29: Spring finale vs. the Blue Jays in Clearwater, 1:05 p.m.

April 1: Opening day vs. the Braves at Citizens Bank Park, 3:05 p.m.

With Eflin set to make his first spring-training start today, it’s worth revisiting Girardi’s recent comments about him: “I look at us that we have a 1A and 1B [Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler]. We could have a 1C. That’s how I feel about Zach Eflin.”

High praise, to be sure. But Girardi has reason to be so bullish.

Eflin’s strikeout rate soared to 28.6% last year from 18.3% in 2019. One possible reason: the evolution of his curveball. He threw it a tick harder, giving it better depth and a later break. He also increased its usage to 13.1% from 5.4% in 2019, according to Statcast.

And he dominated. Hitters went 4-for-40 (.100) and slugged .125 against Eflin’s breaking ball.

Send questions by email or on Twitter @ScottLauber.

Answer: Thanks, Tim, for the questions. The Phillies tried to trade Herrera before removing him from the 40-man roster in January 2020. They didn’t have any luck then, and I’m betting they won’t have much more now.

Why? Because Herrera will make $10 million ($6.1 million against the luxury tax) this year whether he plays in the big leagues or the minors. The Phillies would have to pay a sizable chunk and still might not find a taker. Maybe if he hits .700 in spring training?

And yes, he would go to triple A. Requesting his release would mean forfeiting that salary.