What’s the Phillies’ optimal batting order? | Extra Innings

Two more weeks.

That’s all. That’s how much longer you must wait until the Phillies open a new season. In two weeks — a few minutes past 3 o’clock on April 1, to be precise, at Citizens Bank Park — the first pitch will be uncorked, most likely by Aaron Nola, and the lid will lift on the 2021 season.

But there’s much to do between now and then. The Phillies must sort out their bullpen, fill the bench, and most notably, name an opening-day center fielder. It will also be a race against time for catcher J.T. Realmuto to get into some games after breaking his right thumb last month.

Thursday brings a pause in the exhibition schedule. But president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, general manager Sam Fuld, manager Joe Girardi, and a host of others will likely meet to discuss where everything stands with two weeks to go.

You’re signed up to get this newsletter in your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday during spring training. If you like what you’re reading, tell your friends it’s free to sign up here. I want to know what you think, what we should add, and what you want to read, so send me feedback by email or on Twitter @ScottLauber. Thank you for reading.

— Scott Lauber (extrainnings@inquirer.com)

Here’s the thing about batting orders: They aren’t important.

Want proof? In 2019, the last full major-league season, National League teams used, on average, 127 batting orders — and that doesn’t even account for pitchers. In 10 years as manager of the Yankees, Girardi scribbled less than 100 orders once (2011) and more than 140 four times (2013, 2014, 2016, 2017).

In modern baseball, batting orders are more Tetris than tablets. The pieces move around; they aren’t set in stone.

But everyone also loves being an armchair manager. And when it comes to our favorite teams, what’s more fun than debating the construction of the lineup? Should the Phillies bat Bryce Harper second or third? What about Rhys Hoskins? Alec Bohm?

When the season opens, Girardi figures to have, at a minimum, two preferred batting orders: one against right-handed starters, another against lefties. He may have one order for when Realmuto is behind the plate, one for when Andrew Knapp catches.

And even if he settles on one batting order that he likes best, he will almost certainly have to scrap it as soon as someone gets injured.

For this exercise, though, let’s assume full health, examine each player’s numbers against righties and lefties since 2019, and pose this question: What’s the Phillies’ optimal batting order?

Andrew McCutchen remains the logical choice to bat leadoff given his experience and on-base skills. Girardi seems to prefer Hoskins in the 2-hole and Harper in the No. 3 spot.

From there, the Phillies could go in several directions.

As you may expect, lefty-hitting Didi Gregorius tends to hit righties better than lefties. Conversely, righty-swinging Jean Segura and Realmuto tend to be more productive against lefties than righties.

Then there’s Bohm, a right-handed hitter with reverse splits in the minors. In 44 games after getting called up to the majors last year, he batted .358 against righties compared to .270 against lefties, but slugged .514 against lefties compared to .472 against righties.

Unless Scott Kingery, Odúbel Herrera, or Roman Quinn goes on a tear in the final two weeks of spring training, the center-field job could come down to a platoon. Herrera’s career numbers are slightly better against righties (.772 OPS, compared to .702 vs. lefties), while Kingery has fared ever so slightly better against lefties (.686 OPS, compared to .674 vs. lefties).

Against lefties, then, the Phillies’ best configuration may look something like this (stats from 2019-20, unless otherwise indicated):

LF McCutchen (R): .288/.410/.486/.896

1B Hoskins (R): .279/.459/.581/1.040

RF Harper (L): .283/.380/.574/.954

C Realmuto (R): .302/.368/.908

3B Bohm (R): .271/.343/.414/.757 (2018-19 minors)

2B Segura (R): .284/.346/.537/.883

SS Gregorius (L): .203/.243/.469/.712

CF Kingery (R): .256/.295/.468/.763

Against righties, this might make sense:

LF McCutchen (R): .243/.331/.431/.762

RF Harper (L): .252/.387/.491/.878

3B Bohm (R): .303/.379/.499/.878 (2018-19 minors)

SS Gregorius (L): .274/.320/.457/.777

1B Hoskins (R): .214/.334/.426/.760

C Realmuto (R): .262/.320/.475/.795

CF Herrera (L): .237/.304/.407/.711 (2018-19 stats)

2B Segura (R): .273/.323/.382/.705

Regardless, one thing is certain: Girardi will use many variations as the season goes along.

Upon returning home after last season and reviewing video to find ways that he could ease the stress on his balky lower back, Harper made a startling discovery.

Really enjoyed this story from Matt Breen on the twists and turns of the Jimmy Rollins-for-Zach Eflin trade six years ago. Turned out to be a pretty smart deal for former GM Ruben Amaro Jr.

Nola is in line to make his fourth consecutive opening-day start. He’s also flirting with a new pitch. (Also within that story, health updates on Gregorius and Realmuto.)

If the Phillies needed another reason to be conservative with top pitching prospect Spencer Howard’s early-season workload, a bout with back spasms can now be added to the list.

Missed the last few games? We’ve got you covered, from Chase Anderson’s strong start Monday against the Yankees to Nola’s dud Tuesday against the Blue Jays.

Today: Zack Wheeler faces the Tigers in Clearwater, 1:05 p.m. (NBCSP+)

Tomorrow: Off-day

Friday: Phillies vs. Yankees under the lights in Tampa, 6:35 p.m.

March 29: Spring-training finale vs. Blue Jays in Clearwater, 1:05 p.m.

April 1: Opening day vs. Braves at Citizens Bank Park, 3:05 p.m.

Asked last week about the Phillies’ offensive philosophy, Girardi said: “Strikeouts, as an organization, we have a problem with them. We don’t like them. I thought we were better last year. And I want to get even better.”

Last year, in Girardi’s first season as manager, the Phillies struck out 21.6% of the time, less than the major-league average (23.5%). In 2019, not including pitchers’ at-bats, the Phillies struck out to end 22.4% of their at-bats.

So, yes, the trend is moving, ever so slightly, in the right direction.

Send questions by email or on Twitter @ScottLauber.

Answer: Thanks, Joe, for the question. Lots of Kingery questions out there (I see you, @Charlie09163111 and @GorelickRich).

Kingery has options and can be sent to the minors without going through waivers. But I don’t see that happening. Most people that I talk to give Kingery a mulligan for last season after COVID-19 and the back/shoulder injuries. As bad as he has looked in spring training, I think the Phillies will either use him in center field or as a super-utilityman, and continue to work with him to recapture the swing that was so successful in college and the minor leagues.

Answer: Hey, Cale. Good question. Thanks for sending it along.

As you know, Hamels made only one start last season for Atlanta because of a shoulder injury. From what I’m told, he is still getting healthy and isn’t ready to throw for teams yet. He’s aiming for a midseason return. It’ll be interesting to see if a contending team takes a chance.