The Phillies have an opportunity in center field. Will they give Odubel Herrera a second chance? | Extra Innings

If somebody told you three months ago that the Phillies would a) hire a two-time World Series-winning chief executive, b) improve the bullpen, and c) re-sign J.T. Realmuto or Didi Gregorius — and maybe both — what would you have said?

Nice offseason, right?

Well, five weeks after Dave Dombrowski took over as president of baseball operations, the Phillies have signed reliever Archie Bradley and reportedly made an offer to Realmuto while staying in touch with Gregorius and other free-agent shortstops.

Acquiring a catcher is the Phillies’ top priority, and Realmuto’s market recedes by the day. The Blue Jays are likely out now, too, after agreeing late Tuesday to a six-year, $150 million deal with center fielder George Springer.

Can the Phillies sign Realmuto to a nine-figure contract and still address their other needs, notably shortstop and pitching depth? After the Phillies signaled early in the offseason that they would reduce the payroll, perhaps dramatically, their budget might be larger than expected.

“I was given a general number,” Dombrowski said this week. “I can’t say it’s etched in stone, but I have a pulse for what it is. We do have some ability to make some moves.”

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— Scott Lauber (extrainnings@inquirer.com)

Of the 60 pitchers who threw a total of at least 200 innings in the last two seasons, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Zach Eflin ranked 10th, 19th, and 24th with ground-ball rates of 49.7%, 46.7%, and 45.1%, respectively.

That helps explain why the Phillies are looking for a shortstop to provide better defense than holdover Jean Segura.

There doesn’t appear to be as much urgency to upgrade in center field. Even though the Phillies have been linked to Jackie Bradley Jr., who played for Dombrowski in Boston, they seem inclined to let Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, and perhaps even utilityman Scott Kingery compete for the job in spring training.

But what about Odubel Herrera?

It has been 20 months since Herrera’s arrest in Atlantic City on charges of assaulting his girlfriend. The charges were dropped, but he served an 85-game suspension without pay for violating Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy.

A year ago, the Phillies removed Herrera from the 40-man roster but didn’t release him, then-general manager Matt Klentak claiming the former All-Star would have to earn back his spot. Herrera attended minor-league camp in spring training and wasn’t invited to the alternate site in Lehigh Valley during the season.

Despite having one year left on his five-year, $30.5 million contract and counting $6.1 million against the luxury tax, Herrera has been an organizational outcast.

But Klentak isn’t in charge anymore, and Herrera did express contrition last spring for his actions. With an opening in center field, is it possible he will receive a second chance?

“We’re still in a position where we are discussing that internally,” Dombrowski said this week. “I know he has done a lot himself as far as addressing the situation that took place in counseling. But it’s something that we still have to continue to talk through from an internal perspective.”

Even if the Phillies did bring Herrera to big-league camp, he would have an uphill climb to win a job as a nonroster invite. Not only has he not played since May 2019, but he also slashed .207/.268/.332 in his last 425 plate appearances.

The biggest challenge facing every team in 2021 will be retraining pitchers for the rigors of 162 games. Phillies general manager Sam Fuld is leading an organizational meeting this week to discuss it, underscoring the need to acquire more pitching.

Even though Realmuto reportedly has a five-year, $100 million-ish offer from the Phillies, it doesn’t necessarily portend a swift agreement, as Bob Brookover writes.

Rhys Hoskins’ gut tells him Realmuto will return. Matt Breen reminds us that Hoskins’ gut has been right before.

The Phillies’ bullpen, like Goose and Maverick, has a need for speed. Dombrowski tried to address that with moves for three relievers, including Bradley.

Dombrowski pulled off a minor trade with the Red Sox.

Jimmy Rollins, Andrew McCutchen and Milt Thompson praised MLB’s “long overdue” elevation of the Negro Leagues to “major league” status.

Tuesday: Hall of Fame voting announced, 6 p.m.

Feb. 17: First spring-training workout for Phillies pitchers and catchers.

Feb. 27: Exhibition schedule opens vs. Blue Jays.

April 1: Opening day at home vs. Braves, 3:05 p.m., COVID-permitting.

By any measure, but especially in comparison to Liam Hendriks’ three-year, $54 million contract with the White Sox, the Phillies’ one-year, $6 million deal with Bradley is a bargain. Consider each reliever’s numbers over the last four seasons:

Bradley: 234 2/3 innings, 2.95 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 259 strikeouts, 5.1 WAR (calculated by Baseball-Reference.com).

Hendriks: 198 1/3 innings, 2.86 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 261 strikeouts, 5.2 WAR.

Oh, and Bradley is 28 years old; Hendriks will turn 32 in February.

The difference: Hendriks is coming off back-to-back dominant seasons and has a higher strikeout rate (32.6%) than Bradley (26.5%), though not by enough to warrant nine times as much guaranteed money.

Send questions by email or on Twitter @ScottLauber.

Answer: Thanks, @manatee1942, for the great questions. Payroll is a popular topic. For competitive reasons, Dombrowski prefers not to reveal a specific number, so we’re left to read the tea leaves.

By my estimate, the Phillies are at $148.9 million, as calculated for the luxury tax, before agreeing on relatively low salaries for players with less than three years of major-league service (Alec Bohm, Spencer Howard, Haseley, Quinn, Connor Brogdon, etc.).

Given that they have talked re-signing Realmuto and Gregorius, it’s likely the payroll will be higher than expected. My guess is they will be in the $190 million range, which would still be about $17 million less than where they wound up last season and $20 million below the luxury-tax threshold for 2021.

Answer: Hey, Ben. Thanks for the question. It’s certainly fair to be skeptical about Realmuto’s market. With the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, and likely the Angels, Astros and Nationals out of the mix, it’s difficult to find a team other than the Phillies that will give him upwards of $100 million over five years.

But one thing I’ve learned over the years is that it takes only one team to meet a free agent’s price. Until the Cardinals sign Yadier Molina, I wouldn’t rule out them out on Realmuto. The Dodgers seem to be focused on third base but could always pivot.

It does appear that all roads are leading Realmuto back here. But I’m also not ready to declare that the Phillies are bidding against themselves.