Projecting the Phillies’ opening-day roster as spring training begins | Extra Innings

It (almost) felt like spring Tuesday in Philadelphia, but there’s snow in the forecast for Thursday. If you need something to warm you up, you’re in luck: Spring training begins today. The Phillies will hold their first workout this morning in Clearwater, Fla.

Opening day is just six weeks away. The start of spring training felt uncertain over the last few months, but it’s happening today. Warm up.

This is a special Wednesday edition of Extra Innings to mark the beginning of spring training. You’re signed up to get this newsletter in your inbox every Thursday during the Phillies offseason, and starting next week through the end of spring training, you’ll get EI on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. If you like what you’re reading, tell your friends it’s free to sign up here. I want to know what you think, what we should add, and what you want to read, so send me feedback by email or on Twitter @matt_breen. Thank you for reading.

— Matt Breen (extrainnings@inquirer.com)

The Phillies will have at least 70 players in Clearwater this month for spring training, but they can leave next month with just 26. Here’s an early crack at who will be flying north with the Phillies for opening day:

Catchers (2)

J.T. Realmuto and Andrew Knapp: This appears to be the easiest decision this spring. Realmuto is the game’s best catcher, and Knapp was one of baseball’s best backup catchers last season.

Infielders (6)

Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, Didi Gregorius, Alec Bohm, Scott Kingery, Brad Miller: The final bench job seems to be the last spot up for grabs after the Phillies finalize their deal with Miller, who can also play the outfield corners. The real debate will be if the Phillies should carry a fifth bench player or add an extra arm to the bullpen.

Prioritizing pitching makes sense, but if the Phillies lean toward the bench, C.J. Chatham seems to be the front-runner. Acquired last month from Boston, Chatham is already on the 40-man roster, which places him ahead of nonroster outfielder Matt Joyce. Nick Maton, like Chatham, is on the 40-man and can play a bunch of positions but has played only 21 games above Class A ball. Dave Dombrowski was with Boston when they selected Chatham in 2016′s second round. He hit .298 in 2019 with a .741 OPS between double A and triple A.

Outfielders (4)

Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Roman Quinn, Adam Haseley: Kingery might start the season in center field, but Quinn and Haseley will be on the roster regardless. If there’s no DH this season, the Phillies will have to get creative with how they give McCutchen a rest. Kingery, Haseley, and Quinn have started a combined 33 games in left field. If they can play center, they should be fine in left field. Miller started 12 games there in 2019. The Phillies seem to have enough coverage, but if they think they need someone who can play left or right field, it could help Joyce’s case when decisions are made.

Starting pitchers (6)

Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin, Matt Moore, Chase Anderson, Vince Velasquez: The Phillies likely won’t start the season with a traditional five-man rotation after playing just 60 games last season. Moore threw 85 innings last season in Japan, and that total would have led the majors. Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, and Anderson all threw 100 fewer innings in 2020 than they did in 2019.

Every starter stands to benefit from a six-man rotation, at least for the start of the season. That’s where Velasquez comes in. The Phillies are considering a six-man rotation, and Velasquez, who is slated to earn $7 million this season, makes sense as the No. 6 starter. Eventually, the extra starter will move to the bullpen. Major League Baseball is again waiving the rule that limits teams to carrying just 13 pitchers, and it makes sense to use the 26th roster spot on a pitcher to help navigate playing 102 more games this season.

Bullpen (8)

Archie Bradley, Hector Neris, Connor Brogdon, JoJo Romero, Spencer Howard, Jose Alvarado, Brandon Kintzler, Sam Coonrod: Yes, Howard belongs in the starting rotation. But he threw just 24 1/3 innings last season. The Phillies need to chart a course for Howard to be making meaningful starts in the second half of the season. That plan likely begins with him in the bullpen as they can closely manage his workload early in the season. Kintzler, who signed a minor-league deal after saving 12 games last season for Miami with a 2.22 ERA, is the lone player on this projection who needs to be added to the 40-man roster. That can be done. Alvarado and Coonrod are bounce-back candidates who need to show in spring that they can bounce back. If not, the door will open for David Hale, Hector Rondon, Ramon Rosso, Ranger Suarez, or a young arm.

Here’s a look at all 70 players the Phillies have invited so far to spring training, including the players who will be at minicamp.

That list should grow this week when the team completes a contract with Brad Miller. The former utilityman with the bamboo plant is expected to sign as early as Wednesday.

Odubel Herrera will be one of the players at minicamp and will be given a chance to leave Clearwater as the team’s starting center fielder.

In signing Chase Anderson, Scott Lauber writes, the Phillies showed they didn’t put much stock in the short 2020 season.

Planning a trip to Clearwater? You’re in luck. The Phillies will sell 2,200 tickets to spring training games this season.

Today: The first spring workout for pitchers and catchers.

Monday: The first full-squad workout.

Feb. 28: Phillies open Grapefruit League play at the Tigers, 1:05 p.m.

March 1: Phillies play first home game of spring vs. Orioles, 1:05 p.m.

April 1: Regular season begins at home vs. Braves, 3:05 p.m.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA standings project the Phillies to finish in third place in the National League East with an 82-79 record. PECOTA says the Phillies will have their first winning season since 2011 but miss the National League’s second wild card by three games.

Last February, PECOTA pegged the Phillies for just 77 wins. They finished the 60-game season with a .467 winning percentage, which would’ve been about 76 wins over a full season. If PECOTA is that accurate again, the Phillies will at least be in this year’s playoff race.

Send questions by email or on Twitter @matt_breen.

Question: I wanted to get your opinion, and hopefully, your support to have the Phillies land Jake Odorizzi. I believe this is a rare opportunity to get a proven ace, at most likely, a fairly reasonable price. — Tom H. via email

Answer: Thanks, Tom. Great question. First, doesn’t it say a lot about baseball that Odorizzi is a free agent with spring training underway? He was on the injured list three times last season, so it’s hard to make much of the four starts he made for the Twins. But he had a 3.51 ERA in 30 starts in 2019 with a career-high 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. From 2015 to 2019, Odorizzi had a 3.82 ERA, and he made at least 28 starts in six seasons leading up to 2020.

He might not be an ace, but he’s a proven major-league starter who has performed at times like a frontline pitcher. He should be on a team right now. But the Phillies probably won’t be that team. I’m assuming they’re done adding to their rotation after spending $3 million on Matt Moore and $4 million on Chase Anderson.

Jake Arrieta earned $6 million last week from the Cubs, and the Rays paid Chris Archer $6.5 million. You have to think Odorizzi is in that ballpark. Eventually, he’ll get it from someone. It might be the Mets.