7 things to watch on Election Day

Get a version of this article sent directly to your inbox by signing up for our PA 2022 Election Newsletter.

Here’s a look at the landscape ahead of Nov. 8, and the key factors that could decide which way Pennsylvania tilts as the country watches and waits.

🗓 There are six days until Election Day.

— Jonathan Tamari, Julia Terruso, (@JonathanTamari, @JuliaTerruso, election@inquirer.com)

If you see this 🔑 in today’s newsletter, that means we’re highlighting our exclusive journalism. You need to be a subscriber to read these stories.

Let’s set stakes briefly (though if you’ve been reading, you know this part by now):

The governor’s race between Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Doug Mastriano is one of the most consequential in the country. With Republicans in control of the state legislature, it could decide the future of abortion and voting rights in Pa. And the next governor will determine oversight of the 2024 presidential election. Shapiro is heavily favored, according to public polling and insiders who’ve seen private surveys. But this is Pennsylvania. You never know.

The Senate race is one of the most expensive and important in the nation. The winner between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz could  determine which party holds the majority. Any potential Supreme Court openings in the next two years would be subject to that majority’s will.

And several House races could help decide control of that chamber – or the margins for the majority. Keep an eye on districts in Northeast PA (PA8), the Lehigh Valley (PA7), and the Pittsburgh suburbs (PA17). If the election turns into a GOP rout, the Chester County-based 6th is worth watching, too.

Don’t believe us? Consider that Joe Biden, Barack Obama and Donald Trump will all spend Saturday in the state. That’s presidential campaign-level attention in a midterm year.

❓Here are the questions we wish we had answers to:

So who’s going to win? One thing we’ve learned is not to do predictions. Ever. Especially not in Pennsylvania.

But if you and Tom Wolf’s Jeep could travel to the future and tell us these answers, we might feel a bit better about it:

What’s turnout like in Philly: Conventional wisdom is that Democratic turnout dips in midterm elections, and there are warning signs about dissatisfaction with Biden, not to mention Fetterman’s relatively light schedule in Philly 🔑 for much of the campaign. But Shapiro, from Montgomery County, is essentially a local 🔑, and recent elections have seen huge turnout from both sides. If that energy carries into Philly on Tuesday, maybe Democrats defy historical trends. If not, they could be in trouble.

Winning back lost voters: Oz has made a concerted effort to woo suburban voters 🔑, especially in the Philly collar counties, the once red places that have steadily trended blue. Fetterman has tried the reverse in rural areas that have moved away from Democrats. Neither has appeared to have huge success, but if either can shave off even a few percentage points in the others’ base, that could be decisive in a race likely to be decided by a small margin.

The GOP base: Trump inspired turnout in parts of Pa. that remade the entire map. But other Republicans haven’t been able to replicate it. Can Oz – whose conservative credentials have come under fire? Or Mastriano – who fits the Trump mold but has had almost no advertising budget 🔑? There’s an argument from the GOP that despite Mastriano’s lackluster campaign, he could help Oz by drawing out hardcore supporters who might not otherwise have voted for the celebrity surgeon.

The Shapiro effect: The closest thing to a safe bet (and note we said closest thing, not sure thing) is a Shapiro win. Public polls suggest 🔑 it could be by double digits. If so, does Shapiro carry other Democrats over the finish line? Or are polls setting up Democrats for disappointment again? Keep an eye on how Pa.’s battleground House candidates do compared to similar candidates in other states. Everyone deserves credit for running their own races, but House campaigns often swing in the same direction. If Pa. defies a national trend, the top of the ticket might be part of the explanation. (And if so, cue the Shapiro-for-president bandwagon.)

Latino voters: One of the surprises of 2020 was the rightward shift among some groups of Latino voters. Pennsylvania doesn’t have as large a Latino population as swing states like Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, but in close races, there are still enough to be a difference maker, especially in the Lehigh Valley. Do Republicans continue gaining with this fast-growing demographic group? (Though it’s a broad umbrella covering distinct communities with differing interests and concerns). If the GOP keeps up their progress, it could shape politics nationwide.

National wave: After months of Democrats seeming to defy political gravity (and Biden’s poor poll numbers) on the strength of outrage over abortion rights, polls suggest that issue has receded in some voters’ minds while inflation has become even more prominent since the summer. than before. That’s added up to more optimistic predictions for the GOP. If a wave takes shape, Democrats could wash out of those House seats we mentioned above. If Democrats hang onto their majorities, though, it could signal that the power of the Dobbs decision was even greater than first realized.

Trump’s clout: Trump has put his weight into his party’s primaries like few former presidents before. That attempt at kingmaking has left the GOP with some famous but unorthodox candidates who are locked in tight races that perhaps shouldn’t be so tough, considering the historical midterm trends. Oz is one of them 🔑. If he succeeds, Trump can claim credit. But if he fails, Republicans might rue that the former president seemed more persuaded by celebrity than electability.

💬 “He says to me, ‘Look, doctor’s orders, you look like s— and you’re not driving anywhere,’ … Mehmet did that because he cares and he’s a physician.”

— Jeff Bartos describing a moment 🔑 when Oz insisted Bartos shouldn’t try driving cross-state after a long day of campaigning. Oz instead assigned an aide to bring Bartos home. (Bartos is now Oz’s campaign chair.)

🗣 The debate fallout

This time last week, all of the national political scene was focused on the Fetterman-Oz debate. Now we’re finally starting to see some of the impact, beyond speculation. And the initial results say … that impact might have been a lot less than some expected.

A Monmouth University poll out Wednesday showed almost no change in the status of the race, and only 3% told the pollster the debate shifted their votes. It’s just one poll, so we’d like to see more before coming to any conclusions. Muhlenberg College showed a shift to a tied race from its previous survey, but the movement was all within that poll’s significant margin of error so it’s hard to say what, if anything, actually changed.

Bottom line: Whatever the exact numbers, it’s a close race that could still go either way.

📰 Mehmet Oz’s Senate run has stripped the gloss off his TV image. That could weigh on him in a tight finish: Oz spent years charming his way into people’s homes on TV. But a brutal GOP primary and a general election brawl against John Fetterman have left him with a badly scarred public image. Republicans say it’s a distortion, but Democrats hope that in the final days undecided voters break for the candidate they like more, or at least dislike less. A look at Oz’s incredible personal success, and how it has been turned against him in his first foray into politics 🔑.

📰 Mehmet Oz has personally spent more than Bryce Harper’s annual salary on his Senate campaign: In the last two weeks alone Oz has poured in another $4 million of his own money into his Senate campaign. That brings his total to close to $27 million, more than Bryce Harper’s $26 million annual base salary. Oz says he’s an independent who “can’t be bought.” Democrats say he’s trying to buy a Senate seat.

📰 The final days of Doug Mastriano’s shoestring campaign: Is his ‘army’ of fans enough? We know Mastriano has little money and even fewer TV ads for his campaign against Shapiro. Instead, our colleague William Bender writes about how the retired Army colonel is counting on an “army” of grassroots supporters to defy the polls and pull off an upset like Donald Trump did in 2016.

Whatever you do on Tuesday: Vote! 🗳 And we’ll see you again Friday with a bonus: a package of some of our best stories from the Senate race this year.