A possible script for the next four years

No one knows with any certainty what a president’s election will mean for a nation.

It’s not just the unexpected events — 9/11 led to two wars, and Wall Street’s meltdown created the Great Recession — it’s also that we tend to focus on gaining political power rather than exercising power in government.

But presidential campaign words matter.

So here’s a possible script for the next four years, from my view of 35 years as an independent in the executive branch while a naval officer — from the White House to the Joint Chiefs of Staff — as well as in the legislative branch as a Democratic congressman representing a heavily Republican congressional district.

Since defeating fascism, America’s greatest power has been its power to convene — bringing the nations of the world together under a common cause. We did it by building a rules-based world order, founded on multilateral organizations, with agreements to keep us safer and more prosperous.

But today, America confronts China’s and Russia’s collaboration in assembling countervailing international organizations. These organizations have different agendas than we do; some are centered on trying to wean global trade from its reliance on the U.S. dollar, while others push global visions specifically designed to redress grievances about the power wielded by the U.S. globally.

President-elect Donald Trump’s avowed desire to back away from established alliances with the multinational organizations we convened comes at the worst possible moment, when the crossroads of technology, economies, and geopolitics make every issue a national security worry.

Take the world’s interconnectivity. Microchips, 5G wireless networks, and undersea telecommunication cables manufactured by China are all susceptible to emplaced backdoors, hacking, and espionage in peacetime … and therefore to cyber control during warfare.

This is why today’s race to “gather” future partners, by the two competing global visions, matters greatly for our nation’s security — including any abandonment of Ukraine to Russia’s aims.

Americans rightly believe the government should be able to protect its borders from human trafficking, drugs, and illegal immigration. But promised mass deportations aren’t practical because immigrants are essential to American businesses — more than 50% of crop farmworkers are undocumented, and 7.4 million nonfarm jobs await fulfillment — and because immigration offsets decades of declining U.S. birth rates. What’s likely under Trump is a reversal of Joe Biden initiatives — from “Keeping Families Together” to discussion of a path to citizenship for Dreamers — while making entry into the U.S. more challenging.

Alexander Hamilton said, “[L]iberty can have nothing to fear from the judiciary alone, but would have everything to fear from its union with either of the other departments.” Anticipate a breakdown of the traditional barriers between the White House and the U.S. Justice Department’s investigation and prosecution roles. Priorities of investigations could shift away from public corruption and, under the pretense of counterterrorism, toward troublesome but nonviolent groups.

Would judicial orders go unheeded, or be less likely with Trump’s Republican court appointments? President Abraham Lincoln ignored Chief Justice Roger B. Taney’s decision on habeas corpus. Similarly, Andrew Jackson said, “[Chief Justice] John Marshall made his decision; now let him enforce it.”

Republicans may reap what they sow.

The president will use Schedule F from his last administration to replace thousands of career civil service positions with politicos — aiming to remove alleged obstructionism. This will mean the disappearance of invaluable engineering, scientific, and other experience and expertise — which raises safety concerns within agencies like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Republicans may reap what they sow. Just as the Democrats did when they removed the Senate filibuster for lower court nominees, the Republicans removed it for U.S. Supreme Court nominees. This time, we may return to the Tammany Hall the civil service was created to prevent.

Nevertheless, some issues need fixing: Why does it take 104 days to process the initial appeal of poor performance? Why do 40% of civil service members report that those tagged as underperformers remain in their units?

Finally, the Posse Comitatus Act prevents interference by the military in civilian governmental affairs; an exception is the Insurrection Act. This act authorizes the president to deploy the military to suppress an insurrection — or to enforce federal law at the president’s discretion. It’s been used by many presidents, from George Washington to John F. Kennedy. The military is constrained by the constitutional limits of its use, but the decision to “enforce” a law is not theirs.

COVID-19’s angst undermined scientific bases for drugs, food, and health care. The rumored public health appointment of someone who is anti-vaccine will continue to erode trust in the federal government. There will likely be some dismantling of the Affordable Care Act while expanding efforts to have pharmaceuticals sold at lower prices, as other nations do.

This battleground issue, particularly abortion, will move almost exclusively to the states.

For decades, Democrats ignored this branch to their peril, and now we might see two Supreme Court justices retire during the next four years.

The slow runout of the Inflation Reduction Act may imbue some remaining life into America’s Paris Agreement commitment, but Trump has promised to withdraw from it again. The only royal flush remaining is direct air capture and storage in some distant administration.

Our national debt will continue unabated as the world spins toward $100 trillion without the U.S. leadership to halt its inevitable effect on our economy. Additional tax cuts with minimal budget reductions and relaxed banking regulations will leave Americans less protected from another Wall Street meltdown.

The first Trump term illustrated C.S. Lewis’ warning about “the phenomenon of the Inner Ring,” and why “the terror of being left outside … mak[es] a man who is not yet a very bad man do very bad things.”

There have been warnings, as we watched the world’s richest man ingratiate himself with Trump, that this second Trump term will attract only willing enablers, those who will never put civic virtue above being inside the ring.

A final Mark Twain caution: “Prediction is difficult — particularly when it involves the future.”

Joe Sestak is a former U.S. congressman for Pennsylvania’s 7th District and a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral.