Can something positive emerge from the Oct. 7 tragedy and war in Gaza?

Can something positive emerge from the horrors of the Hamas terror attack on Oct. 7 and the carnage caused by the Israel-Hamas war?

This is the question that hovers over Gaza battlefields as Israel prepares to attack the city of Rafah, where Hamas leadership and Israeli hostages are hidden deep in underground tunnels, while one million Palestinian civilians huddle aboveground with nowhere safe to flee.

The Biden administration, along with moderate Arab allies including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar, believes the answer is yes — this war can spark a long-sought accord on a regional Arab-Israeli peace pact.

Top administration officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and CIA Director William Burns, have been tirelessly touring the region to shape a plan for postwar Gaza that would set a firm timeline for a demilitarized Palestinian state next to Israel. In return, the Jewish state would be recognized by most (or all) Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia.

The Biden team is in a rush to have this resolved before the 2024 elections. (Should Donald Trump be elected, he has shown zero interest in a state for the Palestinians.) Time is not on the president’s side.

» READ MORE: U.S. must prevent a new humanitarian disaster in Gaza | Trudy Rubin

I see no chance of making progress toward two states before a change in the current Israeli and Palestinian leadership — including the political and military demise of Hamas.

Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas compete rhetorically in their fervent rejection of a two-state solution. The Israeli leader has always denigrated the idea, while the Hamas charter calls for the destruction of the Israeli state and the killing of its Jews.

Polls show that the vast majority of Israelis want Netanyahu gone, but most of them are still so traumatized by the Hamas savagery of Oct. 7 that the idea of a Palestinian state next door is unimaginable. Meantime, on the Palestinian side, the Hamas attack and Gaza war have fed fantasies of creating one Arab state from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea to which millions of Palestinian refugees and their descendants would return.

Yet, after decades of covering the region, I believe the need for a two-state formula has never been more urgent, as the global power balance shifts and an axis of dictatorial regimes gain strength — from Russia to Iran to China — while America grows more isolationist.

Oct. 7 is a preview of more disasters for Israel if there is no solution to the Palestinian question.

The case was laid out to me bluntly by Nimrod Novik, former senior foreign policy adviser to the late Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres and a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum. “A two-state solution is inevitable, not because I wish it, or [because] it will be easy,” he told me by phone from the Israeli city of Ra’anana. “Any other suggestion assumes one of two things: Either we grant the Palestinians equal rights and give up our Jewish majority and our Zionist dream, or the Palestinians will agree forever to live deprived of equal rights.”

Oct. 7 was an indication, he added, like the two intifadas (Palestinian uprisings from 1987-1993 and 2000-2005) that Palestinians will not agree forever.

» READ MORE: Israel’s trial on genocide charges before a U.N. court should be a wake-up call for Jerusalem | Trudy Rubin

“That means we will live in a one-state reality but forever bloody,” Novik said. “We will ultimately separate either because we are lucky enough to have farsighted leaders on both sides or in the wake of a bloodbath worse for both than we can imagine. But separate we will.”

If the Gaza war ends without a political path toward two states, Novik believes there is likely to be a similar Palestinian explosion on the West Bank, where the Netanyahu government permits violent Israeli settlers to attack villages and towns.

I share Novik’s concern that if Netanyahu’s policies “continue as is,” Israel’s peace accords with Egypt and Jordan “could become unsustainable.” He sees the spark as likely to come from provocations at Arab holy sites by messianic Jews, or even by radical cabinet members such as Itamar Ben-Gvir, who are emboldened by Netanyahu.

“The lunatics are far more emboldened when they have representatives in the government,” Novik said. “A provocation on Jerusalem’s Temple Mount [holy to Muslims and Jews] would unify Arabs and the whole Muslim world.”

The question again becomes, how to change the leadership of the Palestinians and Israelis in a timely fashion? (And, I would add, how to convince the Israeli and Palestinian publics that a two-state solution would leave both sides secure.)

On the Israeli side, the pressure for new elections will mount when the fighting stops. But most Israelis won’t want the fighting to stop permanently before more damage is done to the leadership and military of Hamas. And Netanyahu shows little intent to stop temporarily, even if it means the death of more Israeli hostages in captivity.

To buy more time to crush Hamas, a wise Israeli government would have gone out of its way to protect Palestinian noncombatants, granting a humanitarian cease-fire and facilitating the movement of families to truly bomb-free locations. “I would have sent 500 trucks of aid when the ask is 250,” argued Novik. “If you want the support of the international community for more time, you have to show this is not a war on Palestinian civilians.”

But that is not the modus operandi of the Netanyahu government.

» READ MORE: Back from the dustbin: ‘Two-state solution’ reemerges as the only way to Israel-Palestine peace | Trudy Rubin

On the Palestinian side, things are even more complicated. The Biden team and Arab states want a “rejuvenated” Palestinian Authority - the current Palestinian governing body on the West Bank - to take over in Gaza. But the PA, as this body in commonly called, and its leader, 88-year-old Mahmoud Abbas, have lost all credibility with Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, as they haven’t held elections since 2006 from fear Hamas would win.

To have any credibility with Israelis, however, new Palestinian elections would have to bar any group, such as Hamas, that refuses to recognize the Israeli state. It is unclear whether the Palestinian public would accept barring Hamas.

The Biden team hopes a detailed timeline for establishing two states, backed by a pledge of Saudi recognition of Israel and funding of Gaza reconstruction, will win over both publics. A further sweetener for Israelis would be a stronger, united regional Israeli-Arab front against Iran. And any deal would require Arab willingness to join an international force that would help secure Gaza until the Palestinian Authority regained the credibility to take over.

Unfortunately, neither Netanyahu nor Hamas have any desire to facilitate a two-state solution. And Israeli indifference to the mounting deaths of civilians in Gaza will increase international pressure to end the fighting before Hamas is defeated.

The future of any regional peace may hang on how quickly Israelis mobilize to change their government - and whether Israel shifts strategy to buy more time to clobber Hamas by helping Palestinian civilians survive.