Should Josh Shapiro even want to be vice president?

Pennsylvania was always going to be at the heart of the 2024 campaign. As a large swing state and the birthplace of the sitting president, we in the Keystone State knew our televisions would be full of ads and our roads obstructed by motorcades until November. But now that Scranton’s own Joe Biden is no longer in the race, the commonwealth is even more important as presumptive nominee Kamala Harris searches for a running mate.

Political prognosticators and bettors in the quasi-legal world of election wagering all say Gov. Josh Shapiro is among the top contenders for the spot. Which raises a few questions.

First: Would he even want the job?

The vice presidency has never been known as a great gig. The first vice president, John Adams, said it was “the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived.” Franklin D. Roosevelt’s VP John Nance Garner was more succinct, saying the office “isn’t worth a pitcher of warm spit” (or words to that effect). HBO had a whole show about it, Veep, the first two seasons of which focused on the frustration and powerlessness of the fictional VP, Selina Meyer. Many insiders called it the most accurate of all the shows about life in Washington.

Compared with being governor of a big state, being vice president seems downright boring. Would Shapiro really want to be stuck in that job for four (or even eight) years?

Yeah, he might.

Shapiro has played coy with the press about the possibility, which is par for the course for those under consideration. No one wants to look too eager, but neither do they want to seem uninterested.

But his entire political career has been one of calm progression up the political ladder. Even before he won his 2022 race for governor, pundits had noted his presidential timber. He did not exactly discourage the speculation, just sidestepped the question (“I have never talked about that,” the then-attorney general told Philadelphia Magazine in 2021).

The vice presidency is often seen as a stepping stone to the White House. It has taken Harris from a 2020 also-ran to the consensus 2024 Democratic nominee, so there’s something to the idea. If Shapiro has that presidential itch, spending a term or two as VP might be the best way to scratch it, now that he has declined to challenge Harris for the top spot at the convention next month. Alternatively, it might place Shapiro’s now-lively career into a gentle repose — would he still be a rising star when he wakes?

Another question is whether adding Shapiro to the ticket would do anything for Harris’ chances of winning. It probably won’t, but any small bonus to her campaign from adding him would be localized to Pennsylvania, which is a must-win for the Democrats.

Most people are not looking at the second name on the ticket when they cast their ballots in November. Vice presidents have almost no official power, and typically not even much unofficial influence on the president. But for a nonincumbent nominee like Harris, the vice presidential selection is the first chance the voting public gets to see the would-be president make an important decision. A normal pick — like Shapiro, but also like Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona or Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina — would confirm the presidential nominee makes normal decisions. A wild-card pick shows the opposite.

I’ve been interested in politics my whole life, and I only once heard someone I know say that a vice presidential selection changed his mind about a presidential candidate. Back in 2008, a friend of mine said that John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin convinced him to vote for Barack Obama. Maybe he was looking for a reason to support Obama, but he was a moderate Republican serving in the military — just the sort of person who would normally have voted for McCain. At the time, I thought Palin was a savvy selection, so maybe my friend was wiser than I was.

These are differences between Shapiro and other Democrats, but in a way that makes him closer to the mainstream American voter.

It’s hard to see Shapiro turning off any voters the way Palin did. To the extent he does differ from Harris, it is by being more moderate. Where Harris found a way to be out of town when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Congress last week, Shapiro has been publicly supportive of Israel and has (unlike most Democrats) declined to call for a unilateral cease-fire in Israel’s war against Hamas, even as he criticized how the Netanyahu government conducted the war. And while national Democrats remain in lockstep with teachers’ unions, Shapiro in his 2022 campaign said some encouraging things about school choice (before backtracking following resistance from leaders in his own party).

There are differences between Shapiro and other Democrats, but in a way that makes him closer to the mainstream American voter. The contrast might be uncomfortable for Harris, but if she decides on a more mainstream VP pick, it is not likely to chase any of her existing voter base into the arms of Donald Trump.

Another question Pennsylvanians may ask: Would the commonwealth benefit? It’s doubtful.

California seems to be no better off for having Harris as VP, and Indiana received no special favors when Mike Pence held the office. Pennsylvania taxpayers would be paying someone to be governor even though he’s out campaigning for another job, but we’ve done that with Shapiro so many times now that it feels like tradition.

But the most important query is the one least addressed in vice presidential selection this year, and in previous years: Would he be good at the job? Would he be able to step into the president’s shoes should she die or leave office? I think he would — and I hope Harris considers such questions when she makes her decision, looking beyond getting elected and thinking about the serious business of governing.