At the NATO summit in Vilnius: Will Biden seize or squander the chance to end Putin’s war on Ukraine?

Does Joe Biden want to be remembered as the president who lost Ukraine?

That question must be asked as NATO allies prepare to meet at a historic summit in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius on Tuesday and Wednesday, which will focus on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued aggression in Ukraine.

This is the moment when NATO members, led by Biden, should be laying out a clear path for Ukraine to join the alliance once the war ends. This is the moment, which, if seized, could plausibly lead to Ukrainian victory by year’s end.

This is also the moment when Biden should be announcing that the United States will finally expedite the arrival of critical weapons systems — long-range missiles and F-16 fighter jets — that are vital to the success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

As of this writing, though, all signs are that Biden will squander the moment, and none of the above will happen. As John Herbst, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said during a webinar last week, ”Very thin gruel is likely in Vilnius.” If so, Biden and NATO will be gifting Putin big time, even as he reels from a failed mutiny attempt by one of his closest allies.

» READ MORE: Kremlin disarray means opportunity for Ukraine — if the West acts | Trudy Rubin

There’s still a bit of time for Biden to shift gears and surprise us. Here are the vital steps he should take at the summit to help end Putin’s war.

Make clear that the United States and NATO support a Ukrainian “victory” according to Kyiv’s definition, which means regaining all territory seized by Russia, including Crimea. The White House keeps saying we are with Kyiv “as long as it takes,” but never clarifies “takes for what?” Why not say we are with the Ukrainians until they win?

Announce that the United States will immediately deliver ATACMS long-range missiles to Kyiv, the key weapon that could enable Ukraine’s counteroffensive to succeed.

Hats off to Biden for delivering large-scale U.S. military and economic aid to Ukraine, and for successfully prodding allies to do more (even as Donald Trump makes clear he would cut off arms to Kyiv and ink a surrender deal with his pal Putin). However, the continuing White House refusal to sign off on ATACMS is inexplicable. The excuses are rubbish. Kyiv has pledged not to use these missiles against targets inside Russia, and the U.S. has plenty of them available that it could quickly deliver. Just a few of the long-range missiles would enable Ukraine to hit far behind enemy lines, and cut off Russian access to Crimea.

Ironically, the White House has signed off on sending Ukraine controversial cluster munitions. Kyiv, which is short of artillery shells, urgently needs these munitions for use on the battlefield, where their use does not violate international law. Russia, on the other hand, has been using cluster bombs indiscriminately against Ukrainian civilians, which is a war crime (I’ve seen some of the victims lying in a Mykolaiv hospital after Russians dropped cluster munitions near a bus stop.) Yet there is no hue and cry against their criminal use by Moscow.

However, the question remains: Why is Biden green lighting the cluster munitions but holding back the long range missiles that could reshape the war before the end of summer?

“ATACMS could be brought to bear in days and could make a difference within a week,” said retired U.S. Air Force general and former NATO commander Philip Breedlove. So what on Earth is the White House waiting for?

Announce that training of Ukrainians on F-16s by Denmark and the Netherlands will be expedited, and delivery of planes by Washington and European allies will be fast-tracked. Incredibly, U.S. officials have been doing the opposite, pushing back the training until fall (though the Danes and the Dutch are ready) and slowing delivery of planes until winter, after the counteroffensive. Since the F-16s are U.S.-made, the Europeans can’t act without a U.S. green light.

Again, the delay is inexplicable. It forces Ukrainian forces to advance over endless, heavily mined fields without adequate air cover, meaning enormous casualties. “The U.S. military would not go to war without air power or long-range ammo,” said Breedlove. So why is the White House forcing this disastrous strategy on Ukraine?

Lead NATO in a united, public warning to Putin against blowing up part of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is occupied by Russian forces. Make clear that NATO’s (non nuclear) response would be as swift and harsh as if Putin had used a tactical nuclear weapon.

By now, Biden should realize that Putin’s threats to use tactical nukes are bluster. World War III is not on the horizon. But the Russians have repeatedly hinted that they might explode mines they’ve planted around the Zaporizhzhia facility and blame any disaster on Kyiv. This is the same tactic Putin used when, as all signs definitively conclude, Russia blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam — and blamed Ukraine. NATO allies failed to warn Putin off destroying the dam, which has caused a massive ecological disaster. They can’t afford to make the same mistake with the Zaporizhzhia plant.

Led by Biden, the summit should lay out a road map that leads to NATO membership for Ukraine after the fighting stops. Before Putin’s second invasion, it might have been possible to imagine a status for Ukraine short of actual NATO membership. But now, it is only possible to stabilize Europe by making Putin understand he can’t swallow his neighbors. Otherwise, he will retain his imperial dreams and threaten other Eastern European countries.

Surely, Biden understands a Russian “victory” would be a disaster for NATO. Putin doesn’t need to occupy all of Ukraine to score a victory. He need only bomb Ukraine into an economic basket case and wait for the West to tire of backing Kyiv - or for the return of Trump.

The Balts and Eastern Europeans, who have suffered under Soviet rule, understand this danger. They will try to convince Biden that the risk of bowing to Putin’s threats is greater than taking a firm stand that will deter him.

As the former Lithuanian ambassador to Washington, Žygimantas Pavilionis, told me, by WhatsApp from Vilnius: “We hope Biden will open a clear path to Ukrainian membership, because if not, guys, we will be the next [victim] in the Baltics. Not to do so will also send a clear sign to Xi Jinping that he can do the same in the Indo-Pacific.”

“Send a message to Moscow,” the ambassador continued, directly addressing Biden. “Make clear that the invitation will be issued to Ukraine at the next NATO summit in Washington, D.C., in 2024. If you make that political decision, you will end the war on Ukraine. Putin is weak and will understand that the West has an endgame strategy.”

“If you don’t make that decision,” Pavilionis said. “You are returning us to hell.”