Why Putin’s Ukraine aggression will change the world: An explainer on how we got here | Trudy Rubin

The world is reacting to Vladimir Putin’s new invasion of eastern Ukraine, as Western nations try forestall a wider invasion. I just returned from two weeks in Ukraine and Lithuania, where I spoke to leaders and everyday citizens about the crisis. Here is some background context to help untangle the complex details:

Vladimir Putin has said he believes the breakup of the Soviet Union was the biggest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century. He has written that Ukrainians and Russians are one people.

On Monday, Putin made clear in a speech that he doesn’t believe Ukraine should be a separate state; rather, it is an essential part of historic, imperial Russia. So the basic reason for this crisis is that Putin wants to restore what he believes is Moscow’s rightful control over the territory of Ukraine. He appears willing to use force to do so, no matter the cost.

That demand was a red herring.

Putin claims that Russia was promised in the 1990s that NATO would never be expanded to the countries of Eastern Europe that were once a part of the Soviet Union or under its control. This claim is untrue.

More important, Putin has made very clear that his reason for war on Ukraine goes far beyond the NATO issue. He opposes Ukraine’s efforts to draw closer to Western Europe in any fashion. And he demands NATO pull back troops and weapons from all Eastern European countries that have joined NATO since the end of Soviet rule, including the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania.

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In essence, the Russian leader wants to turn the clock back to the mid-1990s. This is a nonstarter for NATO nations. In fact, Putin’s military threats have convinced Eastern Europe that only their NATO membership protects them from being swallowed by Putin in his efforts to re-create the glory days of the Soviet Union. And his threats to Ukraine have convinced a vast majority of Ukrainians that they need to join too.

To understand why this is significant, it’s important to recall the so-called uprising that Russia organized in eastern Ukraine in 2014, in a region known as the Donbas, which lies next to the Russian border. At the time, Putin falsely claimed “fascist” Ukraine was threatening the largely Russian-speaking population who lived there. Moscow cut off access to Ukrainian TV and flooded the area with Russian TV broadcasts claiming Russian-speakers would be killed.

This was the fake justification Putin used for the Russian-led uprising (and for Putin’s annexation of Crimea).

Russia then used some of its own troops — along with Ukrainians armed, trained, and funded by Moscow — to take two areas it called the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR). This gave Russia a foothold in Ukraine and the ability to disrupt and damage the country. To date, 15,000 Ukrainians have died in the continuing conflict in the Donbas region.

I reported from Donetsk and elsewhere in Ukraine in 2014 when Russia sent intelligence operatives from Moscow to organize the so-called rebellion in the Donbas. In interviews, those leaders admitted they had ties to Moscow.

Russia is using the same tactics today: Russian TV has been proclaiming a totally fictional “genocide” against Russian-speakers in the Donbas. Russian proxy forces have been shelling the Ukrainian side of the front lines while claiming falsely that Ukrainians were firing. Meanwhile, Moscow has been evacuating Donetsk residents to Russia, claiming it is saving their lives, and setting up the fake justification for Putin’s recognition of the region’s “independence.”

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On Monday, Putin gave a rambling speech recognizing the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR).

Putin has announced he will send “peacekeepers” to the independent republics, which gives him an excuse to send tens of thousands of Russian forces into eastern Ukraine (rather than the small number of Russian soldiers that have rotated in and out since 2014, despite Russia’s denial). He could also choose to seize more Ukrainian territory in the east of the country, including the port of Mariupol. Moreover, he could set up Russian military bases on Ukrainian soil.

Putin did the same thing in the country of Georgia in 2008, a former Soviet republic in the Caucasus. He recognized small ethnic areas within Georgia as “independent,” then set up Russian army bases in these “independent Republics.” Only Russia recognizes these fake republics. And Moscow has set up relations with a breakaway area of Moldova, another former Soviet republic that it would like to reclaim.

The United States and Europe offered talks on placement of weapons in NATO countries and conduct of Western military exercises. But Western nations demanded that Putin also discuss placement of Russian troops and Russian military exercises on the Russian border with Western nations. He refused.

Putin’s statement Monday makes clear his refusal to accept Ukraine as an independent state. This effectively kills a long negotiating process known as the Minsk talks about resolving the first Russian-backed occupation of the Donbas that began in 2014.

So there is no basis for diplomacy with a leader who uses military blackmail and armies to achieve his ends. There can be no deals with a leader who creates false pretexts for war while lying about his intentions, even as satellite photos reveal the truth.

Putin is trying to destroy a sovereign, independent, democratic neighboring state by force. This sets a dangerous precedent for other autocrats, including China’s Xi Jinping over Taiwan.

If Putin gets away with this, the post-1945 peace in Europe will be over, as the Russian leader shows that a powerful state can invade and occupy a non-NATO state without being stopped.

Putin’s military has not threatened just Ukraine. It has conducted dangerous air and submarine maneuvers around Norway, Sweden, the Baltic states, and elsewhere. The Russian leader has used chemical weapons in England (and in Russia) to poison opponents. Russian military planes have murdered thousands of civilians in Syria, deliberately striking hospitals, schools, and markets.

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This is a leader gone rogue, determined to restore Russian “greatness” at any cost, respecting no rules or previous signed agreements.

Putin may next threaten NATO countries that were former Soviet republics or satellites. This might ultimately involve U.S. troops, since NATO is pledged to defend any of its members if attacked. More U.S. troops will also be required to strengthen the defenses of NATO members on Russia’s borders. (The United States will not send troops to Ukraine because it is not a NATO member.)

Energy prices will soar globally (which includes the United States) as Putin cuts off gas supplies to Europe in punishment for sanctions, creating a need for Europe to seek additional gas supplies elsewhere.

But the most dangerous element of Putin’s attack on Ukraine, especially if Russian troops invade in force, is that it reveals a bitter, isolated leader willing to break all the established rules that kept Europe and America safe for the last 76 years, even during most of the Cold War.

Putin is discarding all the red lines and accords that prevented World War III between the United States and the Soviet Union, accords on nuclear arms control, agreements regarding the location of missiles — and the recognition that changing European borders by force could trigger nuclear war.

The United States now confronts a Russian leader whose recklessness may make him more dangerous than China, and more likely to set off a horrific war with the West.

Join Worldview columnist Trudy Rubin on Friday, Feb. 25 at 11 a.m. In a discussion with deputy opinion editor Erica Palan, Trudy will shed light on why a Russian attack on Ukraine will have a critical global impact on the United States and Europe, and whether Ukraine is in a position to fight back. Register here.