Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling must not stop U.S. from helping Ukraine win

Two months after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, we don’t yet know how this war will end.

Ukraine’s vastly outnumbered military has astonished the world — including Russia — by forcing Russian troops to withdraw from the area around the capital city, Kyiv. The bravery and eloquence of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky have mobilized Western public support.

And yet, as Russia pours massive forces into eastern Ukraine for a huge ground battle, and stands poised to seize control of the gutted port city of Mariupol, the future of this war remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Russians continue bombing Ukrainian cities, towns, and villages into rubble, while indiscriminately slaughtering civilians.

Ukraine’s war is truly our war — against a Russian dictator whose appetite for expansion, and hatred of the West, has been laid bare by his crimes against Ukraine. If Vladimir Putin “wins” his war, he will see it as a green light for further aggression in Europe and threats against the United States. So it is important for Americans to understand why we must help the Ukrainians win, no matter how long that takes.

» READ MORE: Want to know how to stop Putin? Listen to leaders of Baltic states. | Trudy Rubin

Zelensky has spelled out Ukraine’s minimum goal: for Russian forces to withdraw from all the territory they occupied after the Feb. 24 invasion. That would reduce Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory to just Crimea and part of the eastern region of Donbas, which they seized in 2014. Only then could serious talks begin about the future of those occupied areas and about ironclad Western security guarantees to prevent Russia from invading again.

Of course, Putin totally rejects the idea of a sovereign Ukraine, insisting the country is part of historic Russia. Blind to reality, the Russian leader believed his special forces could seize Kyiv in a blitzkrieg of a few days, then imprison or kill Zelensky and install a Kremlin-backed puppet leader.

Now that the Kyiv blitzkrieg has failed, Putin’s Plan B is to seize the rest of the Donbas region (which abuts the Russian border). This would include Mariupol, located on the Sea of Azov, which would connect to other territory that Russia has recently occupied in the south, creating a land bridge to Crimea.

At that point, the Russian military would also try to seize the major port of Odesa, which would totally cut off Ukrainian access to the Black Sea, leaving a rump, landlocked country. This would destroy any hope of rebuilding the postwar Ukraine economy since that economy depends heavily on sea exports of grain and steel.

Moreover, no one doubts that, if Putin’s Plan B succeeds, he would later renew his military efforts to grab the rest of Ukraine.

Given the skill and motivation shown by Ukrainian forces, a win on Zelensky’s terms is not out of the question, but only if the United States and its allies act immediately.

I agree with retired Air Force general and former NATO commander Philip Breedlove, who told me Thursday: “I don’t think it is too late, but the first thing we need to do is give Ukraine an American policy that says we can win.”

So far most Western allies and the White House appear wary of the word win.

When the war started, Western nations believed the Russians would win quickly, and gave Ukraine only weapons meant to resist Russian occupation.

That has obviously changed.

President Biden and European allies have gradually upped their weapons delivery game, with Washington authorizing antitank missiles and Stinger missiles, which target low-flying aircraft.

Biden announced Thursday that we are finally sending heavier rocket launchers and (old, Soviet-made) helicopters. Putin “will never succeed in dominating and occupying all of Ukraine,” said Biden, who has rightly labeled Putin a war criminal and said his atrocities amount to “genocide.”

But that is not the same as making a commitment to help Ukraine win.

The White House and allies (especially Germany) are still behind the curve, refraining from delivering the MiG-29 planes Zelensky has begged for, or long-range antimissile systems. The excuses are many, but the result is that Ukraine doesn’t yet have what it needs for a long ground war in the east — especially if that war drags on.

“I don’t believe the Western world will support them at the rate they can win,” Breedlove said.

That military support would not only have to increase supplies of heavy weaponry, but continue that support so long as the Russians refused to withdraw from occupied territories. Sanctions would also have to continue and expand to sales of Russian oil and gas. Only then might Putin be forced to conclude he had lost.

Obviously, Putin wants the West to think so, announcing Wednesday that his military successfully test-launched Russia’s most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile. This weapon has been in the works for years and is no immediate threat to Washington or its allies. A leader such as Putin, whose main goal is to hold on to power, won’t launch a suicidal nuclear war with America over Ukraine that would destroy him and his country.

Most likely, Putin scheduled the test to demonstrate Russia’s military prowess to his own people, at a time when word of military losses is leaking into the country despite Kremlin efforts to censor the news.

As for using smaller tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, which he has also threatened, the global political blowback against Putin for breaking the nuclear taboo would likely outweigh any benefit on the ground. After all, he has razed Ukrainian cities to the ground without nukes.

The biggest danger posed by Putin’s nuclear threats is that they will intimidate NATO members, which is just what the Russian leader intends.

It is hard to imagine Ukrainians sitting down with a war criminal who has openly declared his intent to destroy Ukraine as a country. After the deliberate Russian destruction of much of Ukraine and murder of tens of thousands of civilians, Zelensky cannot agree to a Russian diktat.

» READ MORE: Accusing Russia of genocide won't stop Putin's Ukraine war | Trudy Rubin

Low-level “peace” talks may drag on indefinitely. But there will be no serious negotiations unless Putin is forced to recognize that the cost of his Ukraine madness has become so high it threatens his political survival.

Only if Russian forces take another beating in the east, and severe oil and gas sanctions kick in, might reality penetrate the Kremlin.

This can only happen if Biden and his NATO allies show much more determination to help Ukraine win.