To predict what Trump will do at home, look at the strongmen he most admires overseas

After Donald Trump’s electoral victory Tuesday, many Americans and U.S. allies are trying to cope with the idea of an elderly, foulmouthed, vengeful president who doesn’t mask his urge to operate as a strongman. Trump’s choice of best foreign friends offers a stark preview of how he hopes to govern and operate abroad.

Of all the overseas leaders avidly watching the U.S. election results, the two happiest were probably Russian President Vladimir Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. As we peer into a murky domestic and foreign policy future, it is important to understand what that means.

Of course, Trump’s long-standing attraction to Putin is endlessly documented. And it continues, despite the Russian dictator’s open disdain for the United States. But that attraction is even more dangerous in a second Trump term.

In their side-by-side news conference in Helsinki in 2018, Trump infamously said he trusted the Russian leader more than U.S. intelligence agencies. That means come January, we will have an enormous security threat sitting in the Oval Office — an ill-informed president inclined to believe a murderous Russian dictator and ignore U.S. intel warnings about Putin’s intentions.

In his first term, Trump was surrounded by a foreign policy team of “grown-ups,” including Defense Secretary James Mattis and national security adviser H.R. McMaster, who could restrain his pro-Russian leanings. But those grown-ups are gone, and the president-elect looks likely to appoint sycophants and conspiracy theorists to top foreign policy positions. Chances are high that he will purge the FBI and CIA of those he believes are disloyal to him (which no doubt includes those who appreciate the Russian danger).

» READ MORE: Trump says only he can ‘prevent World War III,’ but his embrace of autocrats endangers the USA. | Trudy Rubin

Even worse, Trump believes that “peace through strength” means he alone can make foreign policy via his friendships with dictators. That approach already failed with North Korea and Iran, who bulked up their arsenal of nuclear matériel and long-range missiles after Trump’s first-term efforts at personal diplomacy. Trump’s buddy Putin is now helping both countries develop their weapons systems further.

The president-elect has reportedly had as many as seven private phone calls with the Russian leader since stepping down in 2020. No doubt they were discussing Trump’s pledge to resolve the Ukraine conflict in 24 hours before even being sworn in. Yet, there is no way — I repeat, no way — Trump can do such a deal without surrendering to Putin’s terms, which will mean ending Ukraine’s independence and delivering it to Russian domination. Moreover, Putin is fully aware of Trump’s susceptibility to flattery, which the former KGB colonel will freely exploit.

Trump shows no signs he realizes the weakness that surrendering Ukraine to Putin will signal globally. Rather than build respect for Trump’s strength, this betrayal would convince Beijing that the president is prepared to surrender Taiwan. Meantime, NATO would be wounded, perhaps fatally, by a Trump surrender to a major adversary, which, in turn, would encourage Iran and North Korea to do their worst.

Many observers believe the only explanation for Trump’s affinity for Putin must be that Russian security services have compromising material on him. To the contrary, I believe that affinity has grown out of Trump’s admiration for the Russian dictator’s macho persona — and ability to rule without being pestered by legislators, the press, demonstrations, or any curbs on his power. Never mind if Putin has his opponents poisoned or sent to Siberia (questioned on this, Trump once said, “We’ve got a lot of killers, too”).

Add to the gift bag for Putin the admiration of MAGA conservatives and Trump acolytes, such as Steve Bannon, over the Russian leader’s supposed “traditional values.” Of course, Putin’s version of such values means overt hostility to gays, women’s rights, and dark-skinned Russians. It also means hypocritically promoting Russian Orthodox Christianity while massacring Ukrainian Christians and persecuting minority sects at home.

Yet, nothing exemplifies Trump’s fascination with autocrats more clearly than his bromance with Orbán, who has transformed Hungarian democracy into one-man rule.

While Trump spars with democratic French, German, and British leaders, he embraces the pro-Putin Orbán. The Hungarian leader, whose country’s population totals under 10 million, has become Trump’s closest political ally in Europe, invited to the White House in 2019 and to Mar-a-Lago in July.

“I look forward to working closely with Prime Minister Orbán once again when I take the oath of office,” Trump said earlier this year, calling the Hungarian leader a “great man.” This despite Orbán’s unsavory reputation inside the European Union due to his antidemocratic behavior and hostility toward Ukraine.

So why the Trump fondness for Orbán? Imitation envy? The Hungarian has transformed his country’s democratic system by changing electoral laws to ensure only his party can win elections. Meantime, he has managed, legally, to take control of the courts. As for the press, he had government-friendly oligarchs (think Elon Musk or Trump-cowed Jeff Bezos) buy up 80% of mass media outlets, turning them into Orbán’s propaganda mills. Most Hungarians now hear only what the leader wants them to hear.

Meantime, for his supposed defense of family values, Orbán has also become the darling of Bannon and CPAC, the prominent Conservative Political Action Conference, which has held three of its annual meetings in Budapest. Uber-conservative U.S. think tanks work with counterpart think tanks in Hungary.

Orbán’s government has targeted asylum-seekers, “Muslim invaders,” nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), LGBTQ people, the remaining independent press, and the independent Central European University. One of Orbán’s main targets is the Hungarian-born U.S. philanthropist George Soros, whom he has attacked endlessly in gross antisemitic fashion as the liberal financial mastermind behind all of Hungary’s ills.

Orbán (and Bannon) want to cement an alliance with all of Europe’s most far-right, nationalistic political parties and Trump’s support will greatly advance this effort.

» READ MORE: Ukraine-Russia peace talks can't work unless Kyiv is invited to join NATO | Trudy Rubin

Instead of pushing back against the authoritarian axis of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea that is challenging the United States globally, Trump deludes himself that he is a strongman who can win over their rulers via personal diplomacy or punishing tariffs.

Trump’s pursuit of Putin and Orbán leaves no doubt of the kind of ruler he wants to become, the kind who pals around with illiberal pseudo-democracies while declaring days before his election that “in many cases, our allies are worse than our so-called enemies.”

Is this really what Americans voted for?

Perhaps in two years, we will see buyer’s remorse when some Americans who chose Trump for economic reasons realize the tsunami of warnings about his authoritarian leanings was valid. Perhaps they will realize that Trump’s slogan of peace through strength is more likely to lead to more war and conflicts.

Yet, according to a February study by the Pew Research Center, 32% of Americans believe a military regime or authoritarian leader would be a good way of governing the country. Perhaps they, and many more U.S. voters, are ready to junk the Constitution and hand it all over to a strongman. Perhaps not.

How much Trump sucks up to Putin and imitates Orbán early in his tenure — and whether anyone in government or civil society can stop him — will signal to those who still value democracy how much we have to fear.