Aaron Nola struggles with runners on, but earns the win as Phillies defeat Diamondbacks, 5-4

PHOENIX — In the third inning of Thursday’s 5-4 Phillies win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, Ketel Marte stepped up to the plate with runners on second and third. Aaron Nola fed him four pitches, one in the dirt, and three out of the zone. On the fifth pitch, a knuckle curve spun right down the middle of the plate, Marte pounced, launching a three-run home run into the center-field seats to give the Diamondbacks a 4-3 lead.

In the next at-bat, with no runners on base, Nola struck out Corbin Carroll, who hits for far more power than Marte. In the at-bat after that, he induced a groundout from Christian Walker, who is batting .308/.367/.615 over his last seven games.

It was the perfect encapsulation of a growing trend from Nola this season. There aren’t numbers — at least not public ones — on how pitchers pitch out of the windup and out of the stretch. But looking at how they pitch with runners on and with the bases empty can be a good estimate. And Nola’s numbers have gotten more pronounced of late.

In 2021, opposing hitters hit .224/.256/.370 against him when the bases were empty, versus .260/.335/.468 with runners on. In 2022, those numbers changed to .199/.237/.306 with the bases empty, to .259/.294/.426 with runners on. In 2023, the chasm between those figures is as wide as it has ever been. This season, opposing hitters have hit .192/.240/.356 against Nola with the bases empty, and .299/.350/.533 with runners on.

“I don’t know (what the reason is),” Nola said. “I’ll have to dig a little deeper into it. My stuff feels good. It depends on whether the guy swings at certian pitches. Getting behind is obviously, a worse thing to do with guys on base. I feel like this year I’ve gotten behind a good bit, especially with guys on base.”

“We’ve been digging into it,” said manager Rob Thomson. “So, far not much (of a difference). It seems like every time he throws a bad pitch -- or a pitch that he doesn’t execute -- it gets hit. So, he’s going through one of those times, I guess. But they’re grinding on it.”

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According to Fangraphs, Nola’s strikeout rate has dropped from 26.6% with the bases empty to 18.2% with men on base this season. His walk rate has risen from 6% with the bases empty to 7.4% with men on base over that span. His strikeout rate rises back to 22.4% with men in scoring position and his walk rate drops to 6.6%, but it is still a notable change.

This could have something to do with MLB’s new rules. The bases are bigger now, which means that players might be more inclined to run, and Nola could be feeling the pressure of that. Pitchers and hitters are both adjusting to the pitch clock. Nola could take more time with runners on last season, and now he has to throw a pitch within a 20-second time frame. There is also a limit of two pickoff attempts per plate appearance.

“I think for me — a guy that’s held the ball, and picked off and kind of controlled the running game, gave our catchers a chance to throw the guy out...that’s what I’ve done, multiple times,” Nola said. “And now there’s a limit. Having a limit makes it a little tougher.”

Regardless, it’s something the Phillies and Nola will have to figure out. Nola retired all the batters he faced without runners Thursday except for three: Jake McCarthy, who hit a leadoff double in the third, and Gabriel Moreno, who hit a leadoff single in the fifth, and McCarthy, again, who had a bunt single in the seventh.

One could even argue that McCarthy’s first hit should have been scored an error, since Kyle Schwarber misplayed it in left field. Nola has lamented that he hasn’t felt as consistent this season — and the difference between his pitching out of the stretch and out of the windup could be a reason why.

He exited the game after allowing a walk to Geraldo Perdomo walked a batter in the seventh. He was charged with six hits, four earned runs, and one walk with nine strikeouts and one home run over 6 2/3 innings. To his credit, Nola induced mostly weak contact, and a lot of swings and misses. But that third inning — particularly that at-bat against Marte — caused a lot of damage.

Gregory Soto entered in relief, striking out Emmanuel Rivera to end the inning.

If there is a silver lining to be gleaned from the Phillies’ pitching, it was that Seranthony Dominguez looked more like himself. After allowing a game-tying, three-run home run to Christian Walker on Wednesday night, and struggling with his command, he had the chance to face him again. This time, he struck him out.

“It felt better, because yesterday was a bad night for me,” Dominguez said. “I felt really bad that Ranger didn’t get the win, because I didn’t get my job.”

Dominguez struck out both batters he faced. Eight of his 12 pitches thrown were strikes.

“I think tonight, you see him go out there and absolutely go after Christian Walker, right from the first pitch,” said catcher Garrett Stubbs. “And it just shows you what kind of a guy Ser is. No matter what you do prior to an at-bat, and we’re all thinking about it. I’m thinking about it behind the plate. You know he’s thinking about it out there. Everyone knows in the dugout and the stands what happened last night. It’s just a testament to him to go right after it and get a big strikeout in a big situation.”

The Phillies had 13 hits and made plenty of hard contact (13 balls in play registered 95 mph or harder). Bryson Stott looked particularly impressive. He put the Phillies on the board early with a solo home run to right field, his seventh this season.

After Nola gave up the lead, the offense got it back as the Phillies moved back above .500 (35-34) and took three of four from Arizona. Schwarber hit an RBI double in the fourth inning to tie it at 4-4, and a few at-bats later, Harper hit an RBI single to give the Phillies a 5-4 lead. Thanks to a shutdown performance from the bullpen, the Phillies held on.

They are now 35-34, and have won 10 of their last 12 games.

“It’s awesome,” said Stubbs. “I guess June really is the month for the Phillies to come back from under .500. Obviously, last year, a little bit of a slow start, but seems like we’re kind of on path for what we did in 2022. And that’s a pretty good path to be on.”

In the eighth inning, with a runner on first, Corbin Carroll laid down a bunt. Stubbs scooped it up and fired it to Trea Turner, who was covering second base. He threw it in time to get the runner out. It was pivotal moment in a close game.

“That was a big, big, play, and a gutsy play,” Thomson said. “It really was.”

Thomson added: “I think he still could have gone to first base. When he bunted it, it had some backspin, so it checked up and came back to him, so I think that gave him time to get the lead runner.”

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