Source: Phillies agree to $172 million deal with Aaron Nola; still in play for Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Aaron Nola has agreed to a seven-year, $172 million contract with the Phillies, The Inquirer confirmed on Sunday. The deal has a full no-trade clause and no opt-outs. According to a source, Nola turned down more money from other teams in order to stay in Philadelphia. He passed his physical on Sunday afternoon, making the deal official. The Phillies are expected to hold a news conference for him at 1:30 p.m. Monday.

Nola’s is the biggest contract for a pitcher in Phillies history. But just because they signed one starting pitcher doesn’t necessarily mean their rotation will be set. A source familiar with the Phillies’ thinking said they’ll try to sign two starters this offseason. Their starting-pitching depth was tested last year, and they would like to bolster that.

» READ MORE: Murphy: Phillies take a big but manageable risk on Nola and position themselves to improve elsewhere

Nola, 30, was in the midst of his first offseason as a free agent. He and his agent, Joe Longo of Paragon Sports, attempted to come to an agreement on an extension with the Phillies in spring training this year but weren’t able to get a deal done. They tabled contract talks until the offseason.

“At the outset of this offseason, we made signing Aaron our top priority,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in a statement Sunday. “We are committed to winning, and having an individual like him in our uniform for years to come only helps us in that regard. Aaron has proven to be one of the best and most durable pitchers in our game for a number of years now, and when considering his leadership abilities and his character, it was very important for us to keep him a part of the Phillies family.”

Nola was drafted by the Phillies out of LSU in 2014 with the seventh pick in the first round. He has spent 10 seasons in the organization, nine of those in the majors. He posted a 3.72 ERA over those nine big league seasons, with 1,582 strikeouts over 1,422 innings.

He has proved to be very valuable to the Phillies, posting a total Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement number of 33.9 over that span. But he is projected to be even more valuable in 2024. Fangraphs predicts that Nola will have a 4.2 WAR next season, which ranks highest among all the free agent starting pitchers currently on the market.

Nola’s biggest asset has been his durability. He’s given the Phillies 32 starts over his last three regular seasons. He takes pride in pitching deep into games, and because of that, he tries to stay in the strike zone.

This has led to a high home run rate. Nola allowed a career-high 32 home runs last season. He struggled to adapt to rule changes such as the pitch clock and limits on pickoff attempts, but made a few mechanical adjustments in September that helped him hit his stride.

Pitching coach Caleb Cotham added a slide step so Nola could be quicker to the plate. His delivery position also was tweaked, squaring up his shoulders to enable him to see the plate better. His command improved from there. Nola allowed just three earned runs, no walks and one home run in his last two starts. He allowed six earned runs in 23 innings during the 2023 playoffs.

According to Sarah Langs of MLB, if Nola pitches in at least one game in each of the seven years of his contract, he will tie infielder Granny Hamner for second-most seasons played in Phillies history, with 16. Mike Schmidt sits atop the leaderboard with 18.

» READ MORE: Who would you rather sign, Aaron Nola or Blake Snell? We asked scouts around MLB.

A source with knowledge of the Phillies’ thinking says that they are still in the market for Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Nola was their top priority, but now that he has been signed, the Phillies will look to further bolster their pitching depth. That could mean signing Yamamoto, and signing a depth piece as well, like a multi-inning reliever or sixth/seventh starter.

If the Phillies don’t sign Yamamoto, it’s unlikely that they will add another starter of his caliber. This source says they plan to be “pretty aggressive” in pursuing him, but if they don’t settle on the right price, they won’t push for a deal.

The depth piece the Phillies look for could be of the Matt Strahm/Dylan Covey mold. They’d like to add a pitcher who could make spot starts and pick up innings in relief, too. It’s also possible they will add a pitcher who has options and can be sent down to triple A to serve as a sixth/seventh starter.