Where the Andrew Painter and Ranger Suárez injuries leave the Phillies’ pitching rotation

Andrew Painter met with reporters outside the Phillies’ clubhouse Friday and described the sprain in a ligament in his right elbow as “pretty mild.” A few hours earlier, Ranger Suárez returned abruptly from the World Baseball Classic because of tightness in his left forearm but insisted through a team interpreter that he’s “fine.”

All that was missing was Dave Dombrowski dressing up like Chip Diller from Animal House, raising both arms amid the pitching turmoil, and declaring, “Remain calm. All is well.”

OK, maybe the injury to Painter’s ulnar collateral ligament really isn’t serious. Maybe the 19-year-old phenom picks up a baseball on March 30-ish — after the four-week rest prescribed by and agreed upon by team physicians and independent orthopedic surgeon Neal ElAttrache — tosses it lightly to a trainer, and feels ... nothing.

And maybe Suárez takes a couple of days off and resumes his throwing program without issue. Based on his symptoms, the Phillies haven’t felt the need to even send him for an MRI exam.

So, yes, perhaps this is all much ado about nothing.

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But at present, the condition of the Phillies’ pitching staff is neither “pretty mild” nor “fine.” Because opening day is less than three weeks away, and 40% of the projected starters aren’t actively throwing.

Spahn, Sain, and pray for rain?

More like Nola, Walker, Wheeler, and pray for quick healers.

It’s too soon to fire up the DEFCON meter, but let’s talk about the Phillies’ pitching depth.

Over the past week, as it grew more apparent that Painter wouldn’t be ready to open the season even if his MRI came back clean, Bailey Falter became the front-runner for the fifth-starter spot. Fine. Falter had a 3.76 ERA in 16 starts last season, including a 2.54 mark while Wheeler was on the injured list. There’s a chance he would’ve beaten out Painter for the job anyway.

But beyond Falter?

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Dombrowski could go shopping for a fill-in starter, but by the second week of March, the free-agent pickings are typically slim, especially if you need someone to be ready by opening day.

All along, the Phillies planned to fill the fifth-starter spot internally with a “youngster,” as Dombrowski put it in November. They trusted that Painter had both the exceeding talent and maturity to handle being part of the season-opening rotation, even though he would’ve been the first 19-year-old to break camp with the Phillies since Larry Christenson in 1973.

But Painter was never going to throw 200 innings this year. Not after totaling 103⅔ between three minor-league levels in 2022. Pitching coach Caleb Cotham said last month that 130 innings was a fair guideline. Regardless, given that Painter won’t throw for four weeks, it’s doubtful he starts a game at any level until at least Memorial Day.

Teams must budget for roughly 1,450 innings per season, at least 850-900 of which come from starters. The Phillies figured they had the depth to cover that workload.

They replaced most of outgoing free agent Kyle Gibson’s 167⅔ innings with Taijuan Walker, who worked 157⅓ last season with the Mets. And between Painter, McGarry, Plassmeyer, and an increased role for Falter, they estimated they could replenish the 199⅓ starter innings provided last season by Zach Eflin, Noah Syndergaard, and Falter.

Is it possible that they miscalculated? Only if multiple starters go down at the same time.

Last year, Eflin injured a knee in June, while Zack Wheeler missed five starts in August and early September. The only time the Phillies had two regular starters out simultaneously was early July, but Suárez returned from back spasms after missing only two starts.

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It’s also worth remembering that the Phillies were in a similar predicament last spring. Wheeler had a sore shoulder, then got sick with the flu, and ran out of time in the lockout-shortened spring to make a Grapefruit League start. Suárez, meanwhile, was late in arriving to camp because of visa complications and pitched a total of 5⅔ innings in two spring starts.

Somehow, though, Wheeler and Suárez were ready to make their first starts of the season.

Crisis averted.

It could happen again if Suárez’s issue is more hiccup than setback. The Phillies can also take advantage of early-season days off to give him additional time. They won’t need a fifth starter until the sixth game of the season and not again until the 12th game.

So, maybe all really is well. Then again, when Suárez was asked if he expects to be ready for the season, the happy-go-lucky lefty hedged.

“I think so,” he told reporters. “At least that’s what I’m hoping for.”

Just in case, maybe the Phillies should bubble-wrap McGarry’s right arm.

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