The Phillies liked new outfielder Austin Hays ‘for a few years.’ Where does that leave Brandon Marsh?
President of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski tried to land Hays "the last two trading deadlines." Getting him now is an indictment of Marsh's performance against left-handed pitching.
Two weeks ago, the Phillies contacted the Orioles about their surplus of outfielders. It was a cursory conversation. But it led to another, then another, and, finally, a July trade between World Series contenders.
In reality, though, the Phillies have eyed Austin Hays for much longer.
“We’ve liked Hays for a few years,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Friday — and also relayed to Hays in their phone call after the trade. “I’ve actually tried to acquire him the last two trading deadlines, and [the Orioles] were asking for much more than we wanted to give.”
» READ MORE: Phillies trade for Austin Hays from the Orioles for Seranthony Domínguez and Cristian Pache
Indeed, when Hays’ name came up in 2022 and the teams were unable to agree on his value, the Phillies pivoted. Desperate for outfield help, even more than they are now, they swallowed hard and sent catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels for Brandon Marsh.
There’s an undeniable irony, then, in the circumstance that has landed Hays in Philadelphia now. Because if Marsh was more than about 65% of the player the Phillies thought he was, well, they wouldn’t need Hays.
Maybe that’s harsh. Entering Saturday, Marsh was batting .247/.325/.410 with nine homers and a 107 OPS+, meaning he was 7% more productive than league average. And he was tied for first among left fielders with 12 defensive runs saved, as calculated by Sports Info Solutions.
To Marsh, though, left-handed pitching is Kryptonite mixed with poison laced with arsenic. He has done so little against lefties — .140 average/.371 OPS this season; .210/.356 in his career — that manager Rob Thomson hasn’t put him in the lineup when the Phillies have faced a non-opening lefty starter since (checks notes) May 16. That’s nearly one-third of the games in that span.
Not exactly what they bargained for when they gave up O’Hoppe.
“I’m not sure why he’s struggled this much against left-hand pitching,” Dombrowski said. “He made some progress last year. I’m a little surprised, actually. We still think he’ll do it. But it’s not something he’s done this year.”
It would be tenable, Dombrowski said, if the Phillies generated more offense from their center fielder. But Johan Rojas entered Saturday with a .567 OPS, 217th among 220 hitters with at least 250 plate appearances. He’s out there for his elite defense. Hitting is almost a bonus.
» READ MORE: Phillies takeaways as the trade deadline looms: Fortifying the bullpen, assessing Johan Rojas, and more
“We felt very comfortable to have a defensive player in center field in either Rojas or [Cristian] Pache, but all of a sudden, we were playing two defensive players against a left-hander, in left field and in center field,” Dombrowski said. “And you can get by with that at times. But if you’re trying to do a little bit extra, having a guy who can hit left-handed pitching and hit it pretty well in a big series can be very important.”
So, yes, the addition of Hays is an indictment of Marsh’s left-on-left struggles.
It might even cast a cloud over Marsh’s future with the Phillies.
Dombrowski and Thomson made it clear that Hays will have a chance to be more than the right side of a left-field platoon, beginning Saturday night when he started against Guardians righty Carlos Carrasco. (Yes, the same Carlos Carrasco whom the Phillies traded for Cliff Lee at the 2009 deadline.).
And Thomson said Saturday that Hays will get a chance to play every day, at least for now, with Marsh and Rojas splitting time in center field.
Hays, an All-Star last season, got nudged out of the lineup in Baltimore by outfield prospects Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad, even though he’s batting .313 with an .872 OPS since returning from a calf injury on May 15. He’s a .328 hitter with an .894 OPS against lefties this season, but if the kids are as good as the Orioles think, they might not have tendered a contract to Hays, who is under club control via arbitration for one more season after making $6.3 million this year.
The Phillies are betting that Hays will be revitalized by the carrot of playing every day again. Last year, he had almost even splits against lefties (.786 OPS) and righties (.763). In 2022, he actually hit better against righties.
“It’s always tough any time you’ve been in the starting role and all of a sudden you’re in a little bit different role,” Hays said. “I was in a platoon situation and playing some defense late. You always want to be the everyday guy as a player. It’s tough changing roles.”
» READ MORE: How aggressive will the Phillies be at the trade deadline? Let’s look at Dave Dombrowski’s history for clues.
The Phillies didn’t give up a prospect to get Hays, as they would’ve had to do to meet the Rays’ asking price for Randy Arozarena, according to multiple major-league sources. But they did send two major leaguers, including reliever Seranthony Domínguez, to Baltimore. That isn’t nothing.
If everything’s equal, the Phillies prefer Marsh’s defense in left field to center. When they acquired Hays, the righty-hitting outfielder they were seeking before Tuesday’s trade deadline, it initially was presumed they would run a platoon in left field. But if Hays outhits Rojas’ defensive value in center field, he’ll be in the lineup almost every day.
“It all depends how Austin hits,” Thomson said.
One thing is clear: Marsh isn’t in line for everyday at-bats any time soon — and maybe not ever with the Phillies.
Marsh went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in Friday night’s 3-1 loss to the Guardians and wasn’t at his locker while reporters were in the clubhouse. Asked a few weeks ago about facing lefties, he said he was “just trying to see the ball deep and just let the swing go.”
“Really trying to make it a point,” he added, “that I want to try to be as successful against lefties as I am righties.”
Said Dombrowski: “We still think he has a chance to be an everyday player. I’ve seen this happen to a lot of guys. He’s not the first. But it’s not where we thought it would be at this time this year.”
And a trade — for a player they have chased for years — became an unavoidable solution.