Rethinking Andy Pettitte’s Hall of Fame case and what it might mean for Cole Hamels’ chances in 2026

Given the trends in baseball over the last 25 years, our thresholds for starting pitchers must be recalibrated to reward short bursts of dominance and sustained excellence.

Former pitcher Cole Hamels waves to the Citizens Bank Park crowd after retiring as a Phillies player during a pregame ceremony in June.Read moreYong Kim / Staff Photographer

by Scott Lauber

Published Jan. 15, 2025, 5:00 a.m. ET

With the election results — for the Baseball Hall of Fame, that is — due to be announced Tuesday night, everyone’s talking about Ichiro Suzuki and others who may comprise Cooperstown’s Class of 2025.

But I’m stuck on Cole Hamels.

Never mind that Hamels won’t be up for consideration until next winter. Since placing a checkmark alongside CC Sabathia’s name ... and Andy Pettitte’s ... and Félix Hernández’s, and bringing the paper ballot to the post office (yes, it actually goes through the mail), I’ve been anticipating the former Phillies ace’s Hall of Fame candidacy.

First, let’s get this out of the way: In addition to first-timers Suzuki, Sabathia, and Hernández, I voted for holdovers Billy Wagner, Carlos Beltrán, and Chase Utley, each of whom I supported previously. And I came around on Pettitte in his seventh appearance on the ballot.

It’s that latter decision that has me thinking so much about Hamels — and starting pitching, in general.

I’ve had the privilege of voting for the Hall of Fame since 2016, and in that time, only two starters — Roy Halladay and Mike Mussina, both in 2019 — got the 75% plurality needed for election. Only five others — Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Pettitte, Mark Buehrle, and Tim Hudson — received enough votes to stay on the ballot for more than one year.

Maybe starting pitching has been underrepresented in the Hall voting over the last 10 years. Maybe it’s merely a down cycle for starters. Regardless, it didn’t dawn on me until this year’s ballot arrived (in the mail, of course) with Sabathia’s name included.

Sabathia, like Halladay, always struck me as a no-doubt Hall of Famer, no headlong dive into his statistics required. He won the Cy Young Award once and had five top-five finishes. He pitched 19 seasons in the majors, and for at least the first 12, it felt different in the ballpark when he was on the mound. Be it in Cleveland, for a few unforgettable months in Milwaukee in 2008, or with the Yankees, he was must-see viewing.

Hernández exuded a similar vibe. His starts were holidays in Seattle, with Mariners fans dressing in yellow shirts and forming “The King’s Court” in the left-field bleachers. His dominance lasted only 10 years, but as a voter, I tend to reward a high peak, even if it was on the shorter side.

Pettitte had a longer, flatter peak than Hernández and lacked Sabathia’s aura. He didn’t win the Cy Young. And it isn’t a coincidence that, in four seasons as teammates with the Yankees, Sabathia was the choice over Pettitte every time both lefties were available to start opening day or Game 1 of a playoff series.

For six years, few voters threw their support behind Pettitte. Even though he has more postseason wins (19) than any pitcher and was at the core of baseball’s last dynasty, the homegrown Yankee topped out at only 17% approval in 2023.

But then, well, check this out:

Sabathia: 251 wins, 3.74 ERA, 3,577⅓ innings, 116 ERA+
Pettitte: 256 wins, 3.85 ERA, 3,316 innings, 117 ERA+

Nobody is saying Pettitte’s career was a mirror image of Sabathia’s. But the numbers aren’t an optical illusion, either. And maybe, given the trends in baseball over the last 25 years, our Hall of Fame threshold for starting pitchers must be recalibrated to reward both short bursts of dominance and sustained excellence.

Johan Santana dropped off the ballot after one year because voters deemed a six-year peak that included two Cy Youngs and five top-fives to be too short; Pettitte’s longevity has been undervalued. But based on the way we judge starters now, in an era when teams ask less of them, there won’t be any left to elect to the Hall of Fame after Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw — assuming they ever retire.

All of which brings us to Hamels, who will make his first appearance on the ballot next winter.

Hamels’ peak lacked the towering heights of, say, Hernández. He didn’t finish better than fifth in a Cy Young voting. Like Pettitte, he was often not the best or most heralded pitcher on his team. Not when the Phillies employed Cliff Lee and Halladay.

At first blush, Hamels looks more like Pettitte: a great, but not quite Hall-great left-hander. But Hamels had a lower ERA (3.43) and WHIP (1.183 to Pettitte’s 1.351) and a better ERA+ (123). Hamels notched 58 wins above replacement, as calculated by Baseball-Reference, fifth-most among all pitchers over the last 20 seasons behind Verlander (81), Kershaw (76.5), Scherzer (74.5), and Zack Greinke (68.6).

Oh, and as every Phillies fan knows, Hamels owned the 2008 playoffs, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five starts and being named MVP of both the NL Championship Series and World Series. He also tossed a five-hit shutout in Game 3 of the 2010 division series in Cincinnati and a no-hitter in his final Phillies start.

It’s enough to secure Hamels’ eventual spot in the Phillies’ Wall of Fame. But Cooperstown? Probably not, but check back.

Because if Sabathia’s arrival on the ballot caused voters to rethink their stance on Pettitte, maybe it will prompt us to reconsider how we judge all starting pitchers from now on.