What to make of Bryce Harper’s health, why scouts like the Phillies’ chances, and other takeaways

Bryce Harper is a baseball fashion plate. He has a cleat for every occasion and accessories to suit each of the Phillies’ five jerseys, from the classic red pinstripes to the blue and yellow City Connects. Everything matches. Always.

So, what was with the cumbersome — and clashing — black sleeve over his right arm last week?

Harper disclosed to MLB.com that he has played for weeks with pain in his right elbow and wrist. He says it isn’t an excuse for going 20 games (86 plate appearances) without a home run. But it does help connect a few dots.

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Mostly, Harper insists it isn’t a big deal. “Nothing crazy,” he says. And in discussing Harper’s status, manager Rob Thomson is so dismissive that he might as well raise his arms and shout, “Nothing to see here!,” à la Lt. Frank Drebin in The Naked Gun.

“I mean, it’s just, everybody’s going through something now,” Thomson said Sunday. “He’s got to fight through it.”

Swell.

As always, though, pay more attention to the Phillies’ actions than their words. If the team’s medical and training staffs were overly concerned about Harper’s health, well, he wouldn’t have started 13 games in a row — and 40 of 41 since the All-Star break. Not with the Phillies’ division lead never dipping below five games during that span.

You’ll know when Harper’s wrist and elbow are flaring up. Consider the one game since the break that he didn’t play. It was Aug. 18, a Sunday matinee at home before a day off. The Phillies brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth inning against Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan, but Harper stayed in the dugout.

Fans railed against Thomson’s decision not to use his best player to hit for reserve outfielder Cal Stevenson. Thomson said he was “thinking long term.”

Now, everyone knows exactly what he meant.

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Harper’s issues aren’t nothing, of course. And the Phillies should use a seven-game lead in the NL East — the second-largest cushion for any first-place club — to give him additional rest before the postseason.

But despite the power outage, Harper continues to get hits. He has 15, including seven doubles, in 41 at-bats over the last 11 games.

Harper is using the whole field. He shot a walk-off single through the right side against Astros closer Josh Hader last week and flipped a two-out double to left field on a curveball in the sixth inning Sunday night. He doubled twice last Friday night, once down the right-field line and once off the wall in left.

The underlying metrics are mostly encouraging, too. Harper’s average exit velocity since the All-Star break is 91.4 mph, while his hard-hit rate (95 mph or more) is 49.6%, slightly better even than his 91.1 mph average exit velocity and 47.4% hard-hit rate from before the break.

And those numbers encompass an 0-for-24 drought, part of a 2-for-38 skid in late July and early August.

If anything, Harper isn’t walking as much and swinging at more off-speed pitches out of the strike zone. Overall, though, his chase rate hasn’t risen. And while he has lamented rolling over too many pitches, his ground ball rate has been largely consistent, too.

“When I’m staying to left-center and staying through the ball, my swing is better,” Harper said. “Just have to do that.”

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Oh, and about the wrist and elbow? Harper told MLB.com that his wrist has nagged him since May. (He was crowned NL player of the month in May and June.) He said the elbow irritation isn’t related to a ligament that was surgically reconstructed after the 2022 season.

“I feel fine. Feel good,” he said after a game last week. “It’s [the end of] August, obviously, so I think everybody’s grinding a little bit. But it’s just part of the game.”

The Phillies need him to keep grinding through October.

“I just have to. That’s it,” he said. “It’s part of the process of going through a season. Just got to stay the course. I rely heavy on my body. Just got to go.”

A few other takeaways before six games in Toronto and Miami:

When the Phillies traded for Austin Hays at the deadline, they hoped he could be the everyday solution in left field. So far, though, he’s only 10-for-51 (.196) with a .501 OPS vs. right-handed pitching compared to 7-for-16 (.438) with a 1.126 OPS against lefties.

It’s a small sample, but as the Phillies sort their outfield options, it bears watching.

“I want to see more,” Thomson said. “I think he’s held his own, quite frankly. And he’s played very good defense for us. We’ll keep running him out there.”

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On the Phillies’ list of September priorities, the outfield alignment rates well below, say, keeping Harper healthy, returning Alec Bohm from a hand injury, rounding Ranger Suárez back into form, and getting lefty reliever José Alvarado on track.

But there are decisions to make in the outfield, such as who starts in left and center when the Phillies face a righty in the postseason. It still boils down to this: Will Hays’ offense against righties outweigh Johan Rojas’ center-field defense?

“Well, obviously he’s been better against lefties,” Thomson said of Hays. “He’s got to stay on the baseball a little bit more against the righties and use the other side of the field a little bit more.”

The Phillies have won 31 consecutive games in which the starting pitcher completes at least seven innings. It’s the second-longest streak in baseball history, trailing the 1942 Cardinals’ mark of 42 in a row.

It’s also the reason why opposing scouts remain bullish on the Phillies’ chances of making a deep October run.

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Because the Phillies also lead the majors with 32 starts of seven or more innings. By comparison, here are the totals for the other NL playoff hopefuls: Dodgers (19), Brewers (12), Diamondbacks (15), Padres (21), Braves (27), and Mets (19).

It isn’t only Zack Wheeler (11) and Aaron Nola (eight). Cristopher Sánchez has six; Suárez five. And while the past two Octobers suggest Thomson will use the bullpen more aggressively in the postseason, the rotation is an undeniable strength, perhaps even a separator between the Phillies and other contenders.