Why Griff McGarry is the best in-house solution to the Phillies’ fifth-starter problem

As Griff McGarry killed time before a game two weeks ago, he got a call from two of his best friends. The Phillies prospect joined the FaceTime chat to find Andrew Abbott, his roommate for three years at the University of Virginia, smiling so wide that a dentist could have examined each of his front teeth.

“All right,” McGarry asked, suspiciously. “What’s going on?”

“Griff,” said Abbott, giddy as ever, “the Reds just called me up, man.”

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They rejoiced for a few minutes, then rushed to add other former teammates to the call. Abbott, a left-handed pitcher, is the first member of Virginia’s 2021 College World Series team to reach the majors. And after blanking the Brewers for six innings in his debut June 5, the Cardinals for 5⅔ innings five days later, and the Astros for six innings Friday night, he’s the first pitcher since at least 1901 to begin his major league career with back-to-back-to-back scoreless starts of five or more innings.

“We’re all super proud of him, super pumped for him,” said McGarry, seated in the double-A Reading Fightin Phils’ dugout as First Energy Field began to stir before a game this week. “We’re pretty close. Awesome kid. Shot through the Reds’ system. Up in the big leagues. Absolutely crushing it. Couldn’t have happened to a better guy.”

It also could’ve been McGarry.

The Phillies were scrambling for starting pitching near the end of spring training, after injuries eroded the rotation and depth in triple A. McGarry may have been an option, if not in the first week of the season then shortly thereafter. Instead, he strained a muscle in his side in a minor league scrimmage and missed a month.

But it has been six weeks since McGarry returned. He has a 4.12 ERA in six double-A starts, alternating good outings (five hitless innings last week) with bad (six walks in two innings Friday night).

The Phillies still lack a fifth starter — or just as alarming, a reliable fill-in should anything happen to the top four of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, and Taijuan Walker. And while the general consensus among club officials is to not push McGarry to the majors until they know he’s ready, Abbott’s success should at least stir the debate.

“I’m seeing one of my best buds from school doing it up there in the big leagues, and yeah, I mean, it’s awesome,” McGarry said. “It’s motivating for me, right?”

For good reason. McGarry, who turned 24 last week, is only seven days younger than Abbott. The Phillies took McGarry in the fifth round in 2021, 92 picks after the Reds plucked Abbott in the second round.

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McGarry, ranked by Baseball America as the Phillies’ fourth-best prospect, has a 3.67 ERA in 132⅓ innings in his minor league career; Abbott, the Reds’ No. 5 prospect according to Baseball America, got called up with a 3.45 ERA in 185 innings in the minors.

Abbott began the season in double A. At first, the Reds accelerated his timeline based on performance. He struck out 36 of 56 batters in his first three starts. Ultimately, though, they called him up to Cincinnati out of need. Abbott had decent triple-A numbers (3.05 ERA, 54 strikeouts, 14 walks in 38⅓ innings), but touted lefty Nick Lodolo is out until August with a leg injury and 23-year-old Hunter Greene is pitching through a sore hip.

McGarry’s raw stuff is better than his old roomie’s. While Abbott is a finesse lefty, McGarry cranks his fastball into the upper 90s. Maintaining his control is his biggest challenge. But he had reduced his walk rate to 10.95% through five starts before Friday night’s bout of wildness, down from 15.15% in eight double-A outings last season and 14.62% in 42 minor league appearances overall.

“Over the past two years, I’ve improved a lot,” McGarry said. “I’m still not where I want to be, and I think that’s a good thing for me. I’m happy with how I’ve done so far, but definitely not satisfied.”

McGarry has learned that his lapses in control are often tied to his mechanics. Specifically, he tends to fall into the habit of throwing across his body too much, causing the ball to drift. But he picks up on it sooner now than he did in college, when his strike-throwing ability was so spotty that he got pushed to the bullpen temporarily in his senior year.

“My catcher [in Reading], Max McDowell, when it happens, he’ll give me a gesture or something, and I’m on the same page, I’m thinking the same thing,” McGarry said. “I’d say this year it hasn’t happened too often. But I think I’m happy with how I’m able to see it and how quickly I’m able to adjust this year.”

It’s all part of the development process, and it figures to continue whether McGarry remains in Reading or returns to triple-A Lehigh Valley, where he made seven relief appearances late last season when the Phillies were mulling whether he could aid the bullpen. He gave up seven hits and nine walks to 37 batters, posted a 9.00 ERA, and was deemed to be not ready.

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The time has come to find out again. With seven weeks until the trade deadline, the extent to which McGarry has progressed could determine the Phillies’ level of desperation to deal for a starter in what’s shaping up to be an extreme seller’s market.

It’s not like the bar is high. The Phillies demoted Bailey Falter, who got the fifth-starter job out of camp, after he went 0-7 with a 5.13 ERA. Dylan Covey, claimed off waivers from the Dodgers, has a 9.00 ERA in five appearances. The Phillies are 2-10 in games started by Falter, Covey, or the bullpen. And Cristopher Sánchez, the top option in triple A, took a 4.35 ERA and 13% walk rate into a Saturday start in Oakland.

McGarry is well aware of the situation and the opportunity that may stem from it.

“That’s something that’s not in my control,” he said. “Right now, I’m here in Reading, and this is where I’m competing. I think I’ve done a pretty good job at being pretty present in where I’m at. That’s all I can really do.”

But McGarry appears to be the Phillies’ best internal option, at least until top prospect Andrew Painter completes a lengthy recovery from a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. Painter began throwing bullpen sessions this week in Clearwater, Fla., but isn’t expected to pitch in games until later in the summer.

McGarry is closer to being ready to help the major league team than fellow prospect Mick Abel. The 21-year-old right-hander had a 4.62 ERA in 11 starts for Reading, although 15 of the 24 earned runs that he allowed came in two starts.

The Phillies may be inclined to leave Abel in double A all season, but his development path always figured to be longer than McGarry’s and even Painter’s.

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Not only was Abel drafted out of high school in 2020, but he didn’t pitch in his senior year after the pandemic wiped out the scholastic season in Oregon. Six pitchers taken in the first round in 2020 have reached the majors, but all were college pitchers, including Louisville’s Bobby Miller, who blanked the Phillies for six innings last Saturday in his fourth career start for the Dodgers.

“I’m not going to go and say that it was a hitch in who I am now, but I think there were some opportunities that I probably missed where I could’ve been pitching in games or some sort of high-stakes environment during a season,” Abel said before allowing two runs in five innings Thursday night. “It’s just stuff I have to catch up to now.”

So, Abel doesn’t spend much time thinking about the glaring fifth-starter opening that exists two levels above him.

“My brain and my body’s in Reading,” he said. “I mean, I watch the games. I hear commentators saying what they’re saying. But it’s like, I know where I am. I know what I’m doing. It’ll creep in sometimes, but it’s not something I think about a lot.”

Each start that Abbott makes for the Reds should cause the Phillies to think more seriously about McGarry.

“He has a good outing and I’ll text him and say, ‘Keep it up, brother. You’re doing awesome,’” McGarry said. “Haven’t really had any deep conversations with him, but I’m sure in the offseason we’ll be able to catch up and he’ll be able to tell me all about it.”

By then, McGarry may have a few big-league tales to tell, too.

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