Phillies should send struggling Johan Rojas to the minors to avoid another Scott Kingery disappointment

CLEARWATER, Fla. — In the next few days the Phillies will determine the supporting cast of stars like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and J.T. Realmuto. They’ve already decided, really, assuming nobody gets hurt over the weekend, said manager Rob Thomson.

At any rate, they will issue final decisions about which outfielders among Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache, and Jake Cave will make the team. It should not be a hard choice, but I think they will make the wrong choice. They should send Rojas to triple A, for his own good, and for theirs.

Cave is a versatile, left-handed bench piece with power. Pache, who can play center field, has no minor-league options and would be subject to waivers. Rojas has more talent than either, but he’s rawer than both, and can be sent to the minors without danger of losing him.

» READ MORE: Phillies roster projection: Will Johan Rojas and Orion Kerkering make the team?

Nick Castellanos will start in right field. Brandon Marsh, a left-handed hitter, can platoon in center field with Pache, who hits right-handed. Whit Merrifield, a right-handed hitter and utility man, can play left. They’re better defensively with Rojas on the team, but they’re not a better team with that sort of hole in the lineup.

The Phillies are fretting over the decision.

“We have to do the right thing by him, and that is, making sure we don’t bury him offensively at the big-league level, then have to send him out (to the minors),” Thomson said. “We have to be very, very sure that he’s going to be able to perform -- just keep his head above water, really.”

In considering the fate of Rojas, an elite fielder but a non-hitter, it helps to consider the history of some of the franchise’s hottest prospects of the century.

Consider second basemen Chase Utley and Scott Kingery, top prospects 15 years apart, and triple A baseball.

Veterans blocked Utley’s promotion to the major leagues. The team’s No. 1 prospect as a position player before the 2003 season, he seemed ready to play with the big boys but was forced to toil at triple A longer. He got more than 1,000 at-bats at baseball’s dress-rehearsal level, but that might have been the difference. Utley was a six-time All-Star and has a chance at reaching the Hall of Fame. He was the most charismatic player on the team that won the the 2008 and 2009 pennants, and, after the first one, they became World Bleeping Champions.

Kingery, meanwhile, was the victim of an organization desperate for validation. In 2018, the Phillies’ foundering front office hired rookie manager Gabe Kapler, ushering in an era of analytics-driven baseball. Kingery, a natural second baseman, was the team’s No. 1 prospect as a position player, but he’d gotten fewer than 300 plate appearances against the crafty veteran pitching at the triple-A level. Kingery scorched through the 2018 spring training, showed passable ability to play shortstop and outfield, signed a six-year, $24 million contract extension, and was forced into service as the team tinkered with his swing.

Three years later, after 309 games and 308 strikeouts, Kingery and his power-less .233 average were in the Phillies’ minors for good. There, six years removed from his 2018 season, at the age of 29, he remains. He clearly was not ready for big-league pitching. Force-feeding him to the mound monsters in the majors ruined him.

Which brings us to Rojas.

The Phillies promoted him to the majors from double A in mid-July after Pache got hurt. Rojas turned out to be the best defensive center fielder since Garry Maddox arrived in Philly almost 50 years before, and, go figure, after hitting .274 in 403 minor-league games, he hit .302 in 59 major-league games and stole 14 bases in 15 attempts.

Then, facing well-prepared, well-rested pitchers with full scouting reports, something — perhaps the lack of triple-A at-bats — manifested itself.

He hit .093 in 13 playoff games. He reached base just five times. He was going so bad that Thomson took heat for not replacing him with a pinch-hitter in Game 7 of the NLCS — with a one-run lead, in the fourth inning.

» READ MORE: As a decision on Johan Rojas looms, Whit Merrifield is ready to play wherever he’s needed

Rojas spent the winter and this spring — you guessed it — working on his swing. The result: He’s 8-for-48, a .167 average, with one walk.

Thomson said that many of Rojas’ at-bats both this spring and in the playoffs were better than the numbers suggest, but then, baseball isn’t an esthetics exercise, it’s a numbers game; judges don’t give 9.8′s for hard two-hoppers to second base. They’re just outs.

Rojas is too precious an asset to gamble. He’s a generational talent in the field. He has elite speed on the bases. He has an excellent arm. He is a low-cost, long-term answer at the second-most important defensive position on the team, after catcher. After the Kingery affair, there’s no sense risking Rojas’ ruination.

Since he seems overmatched, wouldn’t Rojas be best served with between 200-500 plate appearances at triple A?

“I don’t really think of it that way,” Thomson said, then, with his typical grace, added, “there might be something to that.”

One of Rojas’ rarest talents is his ability to implement the changes his coaches want: “He’s a pretty quick adjuster,” Thomson said.

The same was thought of Kingery.

Asked if he was affected by his lack of triple-A experience, in the context of Rojas facing the same situation, Kingery replied:

“The biggest difference is, in double A, you see a lot of undeveloped guys that have really good stuff. What I saw in triple A was, guys could throw the pitches they wanted to throw where they wanted to throw it. Which was something I hadn’t seen before. Then, when you get up to the big leagues, everybody’s doing that.”

So?

» READ MORE: Question his bat, but his defense is elite. Johan Rojas breaks down his five favorite catches.

“In that sense, I do think it’s a good idea to get at-bats off someone who knows where their pitches are going and can throw them in the exact counts at the exact times they want. ... I can’t give an exact amount of how many at-bats you need, but it’s definitely helpful to have some at-bats to see some pitchers who have been up before, are maybe up-and-down guys who can throw to hitters exactly how they want.”

It’s impossible to know today if a wealth triple-A plate appearances would benefit Rojas tomorrow, but it sounds like we’re going to find out whether an absence of triple-A experience will help or hurt him. It sounds like he’s made the team.

If so, godspeed.