The Phillies and Mets will meet in the postseason for the first time. Who has the edge in their NLDS matchup?

With a 4-2 win over Milwaukee in their wild-card series on Thursday night, the Mets advanced to the National League Division Series this weekend. On Saturday, at 4:08 p.m., they’ll face the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in the postseason for the first time in franchise history.

It’s an NL East matchup that will not be short on drama. These teams have seen a lot of each other — 13 times in 2024 — and the results have been pretty even. The Phillies narrowly edged the Mets out in the season series, 7-6, but three of those Phillies losses were when Taijuan Walker was on the mound. Nevertheless, it could go either way in a best-of-five series.

Here’s an argument for each team advancing to the NLCS.

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Let’s start with the negative, from the Phillies’ perspective (unless you are a Mets fan who supports The Inquirer, in which case — thank you). The Mets have momentum right now. Energy is impossible to quantify, but it is a very real thing.

Look no further than the 2022 Phillies. After a disastrous September, they sneaked into the playoffs, and played with nothing to lose. It was empowering, and put the onus on the opposing team to get the job done.

Another similarity to the 2022 Phillies: A first-year manager who doesn’t have a big ego, uniting his team with a selfless brand of baseball. Carlos Mendoza and Rob Thomson are not the same, but there are definitely parallels. And it’s clear that the clubhouse culture has improved under Mendoza’s watch.

That selflessness seems to start with Jose Iglesias, who was signed to a minor-league contract with the Mets in December and plays as if each game is his last. He puts the ball in play, hustles, and was rewarded this season, with a final line of .337/.381/.829.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor put together an MVP-caliber year. The Mets have a few hitters — mainly Brandon Nimmo and Jesse Winker — who don’t hit for high average, but have shown up big with runners in scoring position. It also should be noted that their slumping slugger — Pete Alonso — just had the best moment of his Mets career with his three-run home run against Milwaukee on Thursday night.

As a team, the Mets finished 10th in baseball in slugging percentage (.415), ninth in OPS (.734), and sixth in home runs (207).

It’s unclear who they’ll pitch in Game 1, but Games 2 and 3 should be some combination of David Peterson, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino — all of whom have had strong seasons. The trick for the Phillies will be getting to the bullpen quickly.

The Phillies are an aggressive team, so of course we should mention chase rate. They chased more pitches at a higher rate (30.3%) than the Mets did this season (28.7%).

People say that bullpens matter more in the playoffs, and if that is true in this series, the Phillies should have an edge. Closer Edwin Díaz has good stuff, but can be erratic at times. Jose Buttó is their best multi-inning threat, but he looked vulnerable on Thursday night, giving up back-to-back home runs to the Brewers in the seventh.

Reliever Phil Maton looked vulnerable, too: He allowed the game-tying and go-ahead home runs to the Brewers in eighth inning of Wednesday’s Game 2.

The Mets have a 4.03 bullpen ERA (compared to the Phillies’ 3.94 bullpen ERA).

Their pitchers are not known for holding runners well. They allowed 140 stolen bases in 2024. It would behoove the Phillies to get some pesky runners on base and let them fly; the Phillies stole 148 bases this year, the fifth-most in baseball.

Another advantage for the Phillies is their starting pitching. Their Game 1 starter — Zack Wheeler — is coming off a career year, and their potential Game 2 starter — Cristopher Sánchez — held a 3.06 ERA across three starts against New York in 2024. Sanchez’s home-road splits are drastic, but he’ll be pitching in Citizens Bank Park if he starts on Sunday.

Aaron Nola hasn’t fared as well against the Mets this season as the other two, but he always seems to hit his stride in the postseason. With how this past week has unfolded, the Mets have only one starter on full rest — Tylor Megill, who has a 4.04 ERA over 16 games this season. Manaea, arguably their best starter, might not be available until Game 3.

The biggest question will be what both offenses look like. Despite the exciting come-from-behind win, the Mets were outhit by the Brewers in each game of their wild-card series. They did not a home run until Alonso’s three-run blast in the ninth inning on Thursday night.

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The Phillies are a question mark in that regard, too. They’ve done a lot of work to keep their hitters sharp during the five-game layoff. Bryce Harper hit a home run in Wednesday’s sim game. Even if it was just a scrimmage, that seems like a good sign for the Phillies, given that Harper hasn’t hit for much power of late.

One other thing to consider: The Phillies have fared well against left-handed pitching, and they should see a lot of it against the Mets. They hit 61 home runs off lefties, tied for second in baseball, with a .270/.342/.441 line across 1,915 plate appearances. They’ve hit 137 home runs off righties, tied for 10th in baseball, with a .251/.318/.417 line across 4,251 plate appearances.

Their leadoff man, Kyle Schwarber, hit .300/.407/.491 against left-handed pitching this season. As a team, the Phillies rank third in baseball in wRC+ against left-handed pitching (118).

» READ MORE: Spencer Turnbull’s goal: Make it back to the Phillies for the playoffs. Even if he doesn’t, he’s ‘in a good spot.’