Will we see baseball this summer? Officials are optimistic, but the clock is ticking on a decision and a viable plan. | Scott Lauber

Baseball’s last spring-training game ended at 4:34 p.m. March 12 in Florida. Through all that has happened since, there has been unanimity within the sport -- at a time when the owners and the players’ union don’t agree on much -- about playing some semblance of a 2020 season.

That remains the biggest reason for optimism that it might actually come to pass.

An official from one American League team said this week that he’s “100 percent sure” that a major-league season, in some form, will be played this year. But getting from here to there is another matter.

For every concept that has been floated -- the Arizona biosphere, the Arizona/Florida split, Arizona/Florida/Texas hubs, and as USA Today detailed this week, an ambitious plan to play an intradivisional schedule in all 30 markets with three 10-team divisions realigned geographically to limit travel -- there are two or three unreported ideas under discussion in the MLB office, according to a source.

And there are even more thus-far unanswerable questions about whether the COVID-19 pandemic will abate sufficiently to allow sporting events to resume, even without fans in the stands.

The calendar keeps moving, too. The Phillies would have played their 31st game Wednesday. Whereas MLB once had time on its side, the schedule is nearly 20% complete. May begins Friday.

In finally agreeing this week to let teams enact ticket-refund policies for March and April games that weren’t played and never will be, MLB conceded what everyone already figured: A 162-game season is out of the question.

Much tougher decisions lie ahead, though, namely how long the league can wait before deciding if any concept for a season is truly practical, presenting it to the Players’ Association, and setting it in motion.

Realistically, it would take a few days for players to reconvene for a spring-training sequel, which figures to last a minimum of two weeks. Working backward, then, MLB could delay finalizing a plan until probably the first week of June and still open by July 1 and play between 81 and 100 games, a representative season under the circumstances. Wait much longer and the season would have to be abbreviated dramatically or extended deep into the fall.

But any plan for a 2020 baseball season hinges on the availability and effectiveness of COVID-19 testing and contact tracing.

The Korean Baseball Organization, for example, would not have been able to restart spring training and schedule its season openers for Monday without rigorous testing and monitoring, including a system in which players get their temperature checked each time they enter the ballpark. The United States has lagged in those protocols.

And what happens if MLB comes together to restart spring training and a player or coach tests positive for the coronavirus? Older coaches, in particular, might be more susceptible if they have diabetes or other underlying health conditions.

“That concerns me probably more than anything,” Boston Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke said recently on a conference call with reporters. “Yes, we can play in empty stadiums and have them televised, and I’m fine with all that. But if we go through this whole thing and then we get everybody in shape and then we have one person on one team test positive, how do we continue on with the league?”

Multiple sources speculated this week that MLB likely will bide its time in formulating a return plan while paying rapt attention to the results of several states’ easing of stay-at-home restrictions. Perhaps, too, advances will be made in a nationwide testing program. If there’s greater access to reliable tests in May and June than there was in April, sports will have an easier time coming back.

Waiting also would allow MLB to buy time in talks with the Players’ Association about agreeing to a decrease in wages in the almost certain event that games resume without fans. Those conversations with the union have not yet begun.

They will eventually, especially with commissioner Rob Manfred indicating recently that teams would lose at least 40% of their revenues by not being able to sell tickets, operate luxury suites, and charge fans for concessions and parking.

Many players, notably Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw, expressed concern over the Arizona plan because it would force them to be separated from their families for several months. But MLB might be limited in where it can return if the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention don’t allow for gatherings of 50 or more people -- even without fans -- in every major-league city.

Baseball officials have been buoyed over the last few days by comments from New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot that the sport might be able to return to their states this summer, albeit in empty ballparks. The most powerful endorsement for a season came recently from Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading expert on infectious disease and a member of the White House’s coronavirus task force.

But Fauci also warned this week that there will likely be another surge in coronavirus cases, and in an interview with the New York Times on Tuesday, he expressed more caution about professional sports leagues’ returning too soon.

"I would love to be able to have all sports back," Fauci said. "But as a health official and a physician and a scientist, I have to say, right now, when you look at the country, we're not ready for that.

“Safety, for the players and the fans, trumps everything. If you can’t guarantee safety, then unfortunately you’re going to have to bite the bullet and say, ‘We may have to go without this sport for this season.’ "

Nobody in baseball wants to see that happen, which is why MLB officials remain steadfast in their optimism that they can use all the available time in the calendar to avoid it.