Sizing up an Aaron Nola contract in free agency: The comps, the Phillies factors, and one familiar case

Kevin Gausman had it all planned out.

“What would really be cool,” he told reporters back in 2012, “is if Aaron Nola pitches Friday and wins. Then I could pitch us to Omaha. That would be really cool.”

Gausman was a college sophomore then; Nola a freshman. And yes, it would have been exceedingly cool for the young right-handers to steer heavily-favored LSU through the best-of-three NCAA Super Regional and into the College World Series. Except along came Stony Brook (led by Lancaster’s Travis Jankowski) to author an upset that still stings like a wasp in Baton Rouge, La.

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The pitchers got over it. Gausman got drafted fourth overall in 2012, made his major league debut the following year, and signed a nine-figure deal with the Blue Jays before last season. Nola got picked seventh overall by the Phillies in 2014, zoomed through the minors in 13 months, and picked up Cy Young votes in three of the last five seasons.

But it was impossible to watch the former teammates share the mound Wednesday night in Toronto and not think about their shared past and the future — Nola’s, in particular. Because Gausman is among only 27 pitchers to make at least $22 million annually. His five-year, $110 million contract is tied for the 21st-highest total value ever for a free-agent pitcher.

And it might represent the floor for Nola’s upcoming free agency.

Nola, who turned 30 in June, is winding down a five-year, $56.75 million deal that worked out well for the Phillies. The sides talked in spring training about an extension, and there was optimism at first. Nola is the team’s longest-tenured player, and owner John Middleton was eager to keep the 2022 pennant-winning band together. (Bullpen pillars José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez signed multiyear extensions in February.)

It didn’t get close. Though the gap remains undisclosed, it was sizable enough that Nola’s representatives and club officials broke off negotiations with a week still to go before opening day.

Nola bet on himself, and well, it hasn’t gone great. His 4.58 ERA is worse than the major league average for starters (4.44 entering the weekend) and his career mark is 3.71, continuing a four-year trend in which he has alternated superb seasons (2020, 2022) with sour ones (2021, 2023). He has given up 27 homers, fourth-most among all pitchers. His walk rate is up to 6.2% from 3.6% last year and 5.2% in 2021; his strikeout rate is down to 25.4% from 29.1% and 29.8%. After completing at least six innings in 13 consecutive starts earlier in the season, he has failed to do so in four starts in a row. His ERA since the All-Star break: 5.24.

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But Nola remains as durable as any pitcher in the sport. Since 2018, he leads the majors in starts (168) and innings (1,025). He believes the best way to overcome struggles is to keep pitching and has developed a detail-oriented routine to stay healthy and available. Few things in baseball are as constant as Nola’s taking the ball every five games — 32 times in all — season after season after season.

Even as some data-driven teams de-emphasize starting pitching, extreme reliability remains widely coveted. It should help boost Nola’s value, even as his walk-year struggles threaten to drag it down. Barring an unexpected agreement in the exclusive five-day negotiating window after the World Series, the Phillies will slap a qualifying offer (expected to be about $20 million this year) on Nola, who will reject it and hit the open market.

It doesn’t mean the Phillies can’t still re-sign him. Three years ago, they didn’t reach an extension agreement with J.T. Realmuto and wound up bringing him back on a five-year, $115.5 million contract, an example cited by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski when the Nola talks broke down in March.

But it might depend on how other teams value Nola, especially in a pitching-rich free-agent market that is expected to be headed by Shohei Ohtani and also feature Julio Urías, Blake Snell, Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and possibly Eduardo Rodríguez and Marcus Stroman if they opt out of their contracts.

Let’s look at some recent contracts for free agents, including Gausman, in an attempt to gain clarity on where Nola might slot in on the pitching pay scale:

Using wins above replacement, as calculated by Fangraphs, here are the top five pitchers in baseball since 2018:

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OK, let’s explain: WAR is determined largely by factors that are within a pitcher’s control (strikeouts, walks, and homers), and Nola has the sixth-biggest differential between strikeout rate (29.1%) and walk rate (3.6%) among starters over the last six seasons. Surely, agent Joe Longo will use that to appeal to analytics-based front offices while also selling Nola’s old-school durability.

Cole is the only other pitcher since 2018 to rack up 1,000 innings with a similar strikeout-walk differential. Nola won’t get close to the Yankees ace’s nine-year, $324 million deal, the record for a free-agent pitcher based on total value, and lacks the consistent overall body of work to join the $30 million-per-year-club with Scherzer, David Price, and Zack Greinke, all of whom won at least one Cy Young Award before cashing in as free agents.

But could Nola leverage his workhorse status, even in a down year, into, say, a facsimile of Carlos Rodón’s six-year, $162 million contract ($27 million per year) from the Yankees last winter? Rodón, six months older than Nola, has made at least 30 starts in a season only once and hasn’t worked more than 178 innings.

Name these pitchers based on the four full seasons leading into their free agency:

Pitcher A: 3.61 ERA, 830 innings, 7.5% walk rate, 21.5% strikeout rate, 114 ERA-plus

Pitcher B: 3.97 ERA, 630⅓ innings, 7.2% walk rate, 23.6% strikeout rate, 111 ERA-plus

Pitcher C: 3.96 ERA, 812⅔ innings, 6.3% walk rate, 28.3% strikeout rate, 107 ERA-plus

Give up? Pitcher A is Jon Lester; Pitcher B is Patrick Corbin; Pitcher C is Nola.

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Lester signed a six-year, $155 million contract with the Cubs at age 30 before the 2015 season, and it paid off with a 3.64 ERA and a 2016 World Series championship. Corbin agreed to a six-year, $140 million deal with the Nationals before the 2019 season. The Phillies were relieved to be outbid. Because although Corbin, then 29, was the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the 2019 World Series, he has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball ever since.

If teams view Nola as somewhere in between, it could mean a six-year deal in the $144 million to $150 million range.

Cole Hamels’ six-year, $144 million contract, agreed to in 2012, represents the largest contract, by total value, ever given to a pitcher by the Phillies. But it was an extension, so they didn’t have to outbid other teams.

In the 2010-11 offseason, the Phillies signed Cliff Lee to a five-year, $120 million contract, which stands as the club’s largest free-agent deal for a pitcher. Nine years later, they landed Wheeler on a five-year, $118 million deal, one of the best free-agent signings in recent club history.

Wheeler has a 3.02 ERA, 1.060 WHIP, and 623 strikeouts in 581⅓ innings with a 139 ERA-plus (meaning he’s 39% better than league average) with the Phillies. In that span, Nola has a 4.00 ERA, 1.073 WHIP, and 714 strikeouts in 610⅓ innings with a 105 ERA-plus. But while Wheeler has performed better, he lacked Nola’s health and pitching history when he signed for $23.6 million per year. Four years later, Nola’s camp could argue he’s worth at least that much.

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There are other considerations for the Phillies. Wheeler, 33, is eligible for free agency after next season. And top prospect Andrew Painter is likely out of the mix until 2025 after undergoing Tommy John elbow surgery.

Here’s a scenario: The Phillies could extend Wheeler in the offseason, let Nola walk, and swing a trade for Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes or Cleveland’s Shane Bieber, both of whom will be entering their walk years in 2024 and are unlikely to re-sign with the Brewers and Guardians.

Gausman became a free agent after the short 2020 season but accepted the $18.9 million qualifying offer to return to the Giants. He parlayed a career-best 2021 season with being ineligible for the qualifying offer a second time into the big contract with the Jays.

It’s doubtful Nola would follow that path.

Even if Nola doesn’t pitch appreciably better in his final seven starts, he should find a market in the offseason. The Cardinals, headed for their first losing season since 2007, are looking to reload. The Mets have rotation vacancies after trading Scherzer and Justin Verlander. The Angels always need pitching.

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Nola’s track record aligns him more closely with Gausman’s $22 million annual salary than, say, the $17 million and $18 million per year that Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker got from the Cubs and Phillies, respectively, last winter. But Gausman’s deal came in the second offseason after the pandemic and amid the turmoil of a 99-day lockout. Most teams spent more freely last offseason, and with attendance on the rise almost everywhere, they figure to do so again this winter.

In 2013, Nola replaced Gausman as LSU’s Friday night starter and outperformed him. A strong finish to the season would position him to surpass Gausman again, this time on the salary scale.