Phillies hit the home stretch likely to make playoffs, but long shots to win World Series
The Phillies were 20/1 to win the World Series on the morning after the trade deadline.
The Major League Baseball trade deadline has passed, and two teams in Texas — the Rangers and Astros — made arguably the most noise, acquiring Mets pitchers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, respectively.
As for the Phillies? They traded one of their better hitting prospects to add depth to their pitching staff and also added a light-hitting infielder with some versatility.
There were no splashy deals for Dave Dombrowski. The Phillies didn’t add a power hitter who also plays left field. They didn’t get demonstrably better. And so they will play out the last eight-plus weeks of the season largely with what they had before Tuesday.
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Good enough to get back to the World Series? It’s going to have to be.
As far as their futures odds go, not much has changed. The Phillies remain among the upper echelon of the National League, but in a tier behind the Braves and Dodgers.
Here’s a look at some MLB futures odds after the trade deadline:
WS odds: Phils climbing
The Phillies came out of the All-Star break a few weeks ago with 25/1 odds to win the World Series. That price as of Wednesday morning was down to 20/1 at BetMGM and 19/1 at FanDuel.
Everyone is still chasing the best team in baseball, the Braves, who were +350 (3.5/1) favorites at BetMGM. The Dodgers were next on the odds board at +500.
Five other teams — all in the American League — had shorter odds than the Phillies’ +2000: the Astros (+700); Rays (+700); Rangers (+900); Orioles (+1200); and Blue Jays (+1600).
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NL: Two-horse race
All signs point to a Braves-Dodgers showdown in the NLCS.
The Braves were +140 Wednesday morning at BetMGM to win the NL and reach the World Series, while the Dodgers were +210.
Atlanta, of course, has a huge lead in the NL East, but the Dodgers had just a 2½-game lead over the Giants as of Wednesday morning.
Still, the Dodgers had -700 odds to win the NL West, and the Giants were +700. Talk about some value on a team with short deficit.
As for the Phillies, their NL pennant odds haven’t changed much over the last few weeks. They were 12/1 coming out of the All-Star break and were 10/1 Wednesday morning.
The Brewers and Giants (both 14/1) are also in the mix.
» READ MORE: A year later, trading for Brandon Marsh is still paying off for the Phillies
Have some Phaith?
Atlanta’s 11½-game lead in the NL East might seem insurmountable — and, according to its -10000 odds to win the division, it certainly appears that way — but Phillies faithful love a good long shot.
This one is of the 40/1 variety.
The Phillies do play the Braves seven more times before the season ends. Remember 2007? The Phillies were seven games back with 17 to play. So, yes, crazier things have happened.
It remains more likely, however, that the Phillies win the World Series than they win the NL East. They took the wild-card route to last year’s World Series.
As far as that math goes, FanGraphs on Wednesday morning had the Phillies at 73.6% to clinch a wild-card spot. While the betting odds haven’t changed much, that number has seen a big change since the All-Star break, when the Phillies were more like a coin flip to reach the postseason.
Playoffs, here they come, it appears. World Series? They’re still relative underdogs, but live ones at that.