A solid stretch has seen the Phillies improve their playoff odds and chances
The last time the Phillies had a day off was more than two weeks ago. Their playoff chances have increased dramatically since then.
A frustrating weekend inside Citizens Bank Park concluded Sunday with little firepower from the Phillies. They opened their three-game series against the Minnesota Twins with a 13-2 win Friday night, but were outscored 11-1 Saturday and Sunday to drop their first series since a late July weekend in Pittsburgh.
And while it wasn’t a great way to go into their first off day since July 27, the Phillies can exhale knowing a lot has changed since their last day without a game.
Even after dropping two of three to the Twins, the Phillies maintained a 1½-game lead on the Giants atop the NL wild card Monday, 3½ games clear of the Chicago Cubs, who entered the week on the outside of the playoffs looking in.
Back on July 27, the Phillies were among five teams separated by one game in the loss column vying for the three wild-card spots.
The playoffs seemed to be a little more likely than a coin flip. Now, as far as their odds and analytics go, the Phillies are a near shoo-in to reach the postseason.
Here’s a look at the numbers as the Phillies break for a day before heading up north for a two-game set with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Odds to make the playoffs
DraftKings is one of the few sportsbooks that offers a line on “to make the playoffs.”
Monday morning, the Phillies were at -800 to reach the postseason. For the uninitiated, that means it would take an $8 bet to win $1. As far as favorites go, that’s a pretty big number.
The Giants, who entered Monday 1½ games ahead of the Marlins for the final playoff spot, were just -175 to make the postseason.
As for the three teams immediately outside the playoff picture Monday morning, the odds were: Cubs -115, Marlins +110, Reds +160.
Looking for a National League long shot? The Padres, who made it to last season’s NLCS, were +400 to make the playoffs and 5½ games out of the last playoff spot as of Monday morning.
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What the analytics say
Remember how bleak things felt in late July after the Phillies lost the opener of a three-game home series against Baltimore? Five losses in six games had the Phillies down in the fifth spot in the NL wild-card standings.
FanGraphs, the baseball analytics site, was still pretty high on the Phillies’ chances to make the playoffs, pinning them at 61.3% after that 3-2 loss to the Orioles on July 24.
Since then, the Phillies are 12-7, which isn’t terribly remarkable, but it’s been more than enough to improve the math in a major way.
As of Monday morning, the wild-card-leading Phillies were up at 83.9% to make the playoffs.
The good part for the Phillies about where they stand and who they’re trying to stay above is that they haven’t needed to be perfect. Solid baseball is all they have needed to play to separate themselves from a set of teams that, at least on paper, they are significantly better than.
No, you shouldn’t get your NL East hopes up
Atlanta’s lead in the NL East momentarily dropped to single digits over the Phillies at the end of last week, but it was back to 11 games Monday morning.
Some sportsbooks don’t even have the NL East market on the board, but DraftKings did Monday morning. The Braves were -20000 and the Phillies were +6000 (60/1).
According to FanGraphs, that’s a pretty bad number. Odds of +6000 imply a 1.64% chance of occurring. FanGraphs on Monday had the Phillies at 0.1% to win the division.
Don’t count on it.
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The going gets tougher
While decent baseball has been enough, the Phillies probably need to be a little bit better the rest of the way against some pretty decent opponents.
That starts Tuesday night in Toronto, where the Phillies are sending Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola to the mound for two games against a Blue Jays team that is in the thick of the AL wild-card race.
The Phillies went 6-2 against the likes of Kansas City and Washington, two of the worst teams in baseball. They have three more against the Nationals this weekend, including the marquee Little League Classic Sunday night in Williamsport. But after that, the schedule gets relatively tough again.
Tankathon has the remaining Phillies schedule as the 11th-toughest in all of baseball. Luckily for them, the Giants and Marlins, the two teams below them in the NL wild-card standings, have a tougher schedule.
Circle this on your calendars: The Phillies host the Giants for three games starting next Monday, Aug. 21.
While the math has improved greatly over the last few weeks, it could look even better by the middle of next week.