Inside the NL playoff race: Big question and outlook for the Phillies and the rest of the field

You’re a Phillies fan, so you’re entitled to be cynical. Ten years in the baseball desert will do that. It’s difficult to believe again, to let down your guard, to trust that this playoff push will end differently than last year’s. Or the year before that. Or the year before that.

But with 5½ weeks left in the season, even the most jaded soul in the crowd at Citizens Bank Park should feel heartened by two things:

As part of the new collective bargaining agreement, a third wild card in each league was added this season. It will mark the most teams — 12 overall — to qualify for the playoffs, except for the shortened 2020 season. The two best division winners in each league will get a first-round bye while the third division winner faces the third wild card and the other two wild cards square off in best-of-three series.

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But as the opportunity to make the playoffs increases, the gap between the good and bad teams has widened, especially since the trade deadline. Through Friday, only seven National League teams had winning records, while seven were on pace to lose at least 90 games.

The result: A seven-team race for six NL playoff spots with mostly Charmin-soft schedules down the stretch. Entering the weekend, the Phillies had a 2½-game lead over the Padres for the second wild-card spot (No. 5 seed in the NL), a five-game lead over the Brewers for the final playoff spot, a 17-2 record in their last 19 games against losing teams, and 24 of their final 36 games against bad teams, including seven against the worst-in-baseball Nationals.

Good teams beat up on weaklings, and let’s be clear: The Phillies are good. They’re on a 91-win pace, and if they take at least two of three from the lowly Pirates this weekend, they will be more than 15 games over .500 for the first time since 2011.

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It’s no wonder, then, that baseball-reference.com gave the Phillies a 97.9% chance to reach the playoffs — and that was before Bryce Harper made his highly anticipated return to the lineup Friday night, at least three days ahead of schedule.

So, cover your eyes if you must, but it’s looking good for the Phillies to quench a decade-long playoff thirst. Here’s a look at the teams in the NL postseason chase (all records through Friday):

Record: 87-37, first place in NL West (19½ games up)

Strength of remaining schedule: .508

Playoff odds: 100% Fangraphs; 100% Baseball Prospectus

The big question: Can they stay healthy? Because when the Dodgers are healthy, they’re a juggernaut. Not only do they lead the majors in run differential (+279 entering the weekend), they were 81 runs better than the next-best team. But they aren’t unbeatable, especially with ace Walker Buehler out for the season after Tommy John surgery. They could use Clayton Kershaw (back) in October. Would you blame them if they put Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Freddie Freeman in bubble wrap?

Outlook: It’s difficult to see the road to the World Series running through anywhere other than Dodger Stadium.

Record: 81-46, first place in NL East (two games up)

Strength of remaining schedule: .472

Playoff odds: 100% Fangraphs; 100% Baseball Prospectus

The big question: Can they hold off the Braves? It would mean the difference between hosting a wild-card series and setting up their rotation to have Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom start the first two games of a best-of-five divisional round. The Mets have been in first place every day since April 12 and play all but nine of their remaining games against losing teams. It could come down to a three-game series in Atlanta on the final weekend of the season (Sept. 30-Oct. 2).

Outlook: The ghosts of slides in 2007, 2008, and 2021 are difficult to drown out, even by closer Edwin Díaz’s electric entrance music. But something about this season feels different. Buck Showalter and a soft schedule should get the Mets to the finish line.

Record: 72-54, first place in NL Central (six games up)

Strength of remaining schedule: .468

Playoff odds: 95.6% Fangraphs; 93.2% Baseball Prospectus

The big question: Are they peaking too early? The Cardinals won 21 of 28 games through Friday to vault past the Brewers and take a cozy division lead. Paul Goldschmidt is the MVP frontrunner, while Jordan Montgomery is doing a Doug Fister impersonation (look it up, kids) and Albert Pujols is turning back the clock to 2011. It still feels like they’ll need something out of starters Steven Matz (knee) and Jack Flaherty (shoulder), both of whom could return next month.

Outlook: The Cardinals have 21 games left against the Pirates, Reds, and Nationals, so it’s hard not to like their chances to wrap up their second division title since 2015. But catching the Mets (or Braves) for a first-round bye will be a steep climb.

Record: 79-48, second place in NL East, first wild card (10 games up)

Strength of remaining schedule: .497

Playoff odds: 100% Fangraphs; 99.9% Baseball Prospectus

The big question: Can the Braves repeat? There hasn’t been a back-to-back World Series champion since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. In the last 10 years, the Dodgers (2017-18) are the only back-to-back NL pennant winner. The Braves’ road would be easier if they can overtake the Mets. Not only would they likely receive a wild-card series bye, but they would avoid the Dodgers in the divisional round. They expect to get Ozzie Albies (foot) back for the stretch drive.

Outlook: Count out the four-time defending NL East champs at your peril. Through Friday, they had reeled off 15 wins in 17 games since a tough series in New York. But they play the Mets only three more times. This would be a good month for Ronald Acuña Jr. to finally heat up.

Record: 71-55, third place in NL East, second wild card (2½ games up)

Strength of remaining schedule: .502

Playoff odds: 91% Fangraphs; 90.1% Baseball Prospectus

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The big question: Will they get a Bryce bounce? When Harper broke his left thumb June 25, it seemed the best the Phillies could do was tread water until the reigning NL MVP came back. Instead, they went 32-20. Harper need not be a catalyst so much as a closer. The Phillies believe they will get Zack Wheeler (forearm) back and healthy. But with the lineup finally intact again, they are in position to win games as they were built to do it: with a deep, powerful offense.

Outlook: The Phillies actually may be better off with the third wild card because it would take them out of the Dodgers’ half of the NL playoff bracket. But after 10 years out of the tournament, it feels nitpicky to focus on the seeding.

Record: 69-58, second in NL West, third wild card (1½ games up)

Strength of remaining schedule: .516

Playoff odds: 72% Fangraphs; 68.6% Baseball Prospectus

The big question: Will they collapse again? A year ago, the Padres were a playoff lock before a 7-21 free fall left them with a losing record. Trading an army of prospects for Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Josh Hader, and Brandon Drury was supposed to prevent another meltdown. But entering the weekend, the Padres were 9-12 since the deadline moves. Soto is dealing with a bad back, and Fernando Tatis Jr.‘s expected return got extinguished by an 80-game drug suspension. So, yes, San Diego’s standing is precarious.

Outlook: The Padres hired manager Bob Melvin in the offseason to help push them into the postseason and close the gap on the Dodgers. Having failed at the latter, they must achieve the former, especially after going all-in at the deadline. No team may have more at stake in September.

Record: 65-59, second place in NL Central, fourth in wild card (2½ games back)

Strength of remaining schedule: .473

Playoff odds: 39.3% Fangraphs; 44.5% Baseball Prospectus

The big question: Has the front office lost the clubhouse? Despite being in first place at the trade deadline, the Brewers dealt Hader. Several players panned the move, failing to see the sense in moving the star closer. Left-hander Eric Lauer became the latest to gripe, saying this week that the trade “didn’t send us the right message.” Clearly. Through Friday, the Brewers were 8-13 since the deadline and lost eight games in the standings to the Cardinals.

Outlook: Of all the NL contenders, the Brewers have scored the fewest runs and have the worst run-differential (+22 through Friday). Their starting pitching, led by Corbin Burnes, would make them tough in the playoffs. But first, they must get there.