Meet the 2022 Phillies: Predictions, season projections for every player

Say this for the players who broke camp with the Phillies this week: They represent the largest and most expensive opening-day roster in franchise history.

Because of the truncated spring training after the owners’ 99-day lockout, Major League Baseball will allow teams to carry 28 players — two more than usual — through May 1. The result: an 11-man bullpen and 15-man pitching staff.

The Phillies also are in line to surpass the luxury-tax threshold for the first time ever. The opening-day payroll, calculated for luxury-tax purposes, is approximately $240 million, fourth-highest in baseball behind the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees.

Here’s a look at the 2022 Phillies:

Position: 3B | Age: 25 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2026.

2022 outlook: It’s popular to refer to his struggles last season as a sophomore slump. But his 597 plate appearances in 2020-21 approximated a full season, and his body of work was typical of a rookie, with extreme peaks and valleys. A new hitting coach (Kevin Long) and infield coach (Bobby Dickerson) could spur improvement. At the plate, it starts with slugging more than .264 against fastballs.

Prediction: Either he takes hold of the third base job, or he becomes trade bait. The trick for the Phillies will be determining if he’s able to do the former before eroding his value as the latter.

Stats projection from Steamer: .263/.328/.425, 11 HR, 42 RBIs, .753 OPS, 1.1 WAR.

Position: INF | Age: 28 | Bats/Throws: Switch/Right

Contract status: Arbitration eligible; under control through 2024.

2022 outlook: Once upon a time, he hit 19 homers with an .806 OPS as the Braves’ everyday third baseman. But Atlanta cast him aside, first for Josh Donaldson and then Austin Riley. He’s a solid defender at every infield position. Given the Phillies’ defensive shortcomings, there’s value in that.

» READ MORE: Bryson Stott, Ranger Suárez, and Seranthony Dominguez will decide Phillies’ 2022 fate

Prediction: With most of the DH at-bats likely to be taken by Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, Camargo’s path to steady at-bats probably will depend on injuries and/or poor performance on the infield.

Stats projection from Steamer: .254/.319/.439, 5 HR, 18 RBIs, .758 OPS, 0.5 WAR.

Position: LF/DH | Age: 30 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: First season of a five-year, $100 million contract.

2022 outlook: The cherry on top of a more than $200 million Phillies offseason, he figures to bat behind Bryce Harper in one of the more formidable 3-4 combinations in baseball. Castellanos also plays with an edge that the Phillies lacked in recent seasons.

» READ MORE: Edge in Castellanos’ game was there as a teen when he was cut from Harper’s national team

Prediction: Expectations are high, especially because he was the player for whom ownership finally agreed to surpass the luxury tax. Coming off the best season of his career in a hitter-friendly ballpark in Cincinnati and firmly in his prime, he should put up big numbers at Citizens Bank Park.

Stats projection from Steamer: .269/.329/.496, 31 HR, 103 RBIs, .825 OPS, 1.9 WAR.

Position: SS | Age: 32 | Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Contract status: Second season of two-year, $28 million contract.

2022 outlook: It’s reasonable to expect more offense from the veteran shortstop, who was so severely limited last season by bone spurs in his right elbow that he was one of the worst everyday players in the NL. But how much better will his defense be? At this stage of his career, he may be better suited to move to third base or second.

» READ MORE: Matt Vierling keeps proving he belongs, this time as the Phillies’ center fielder

Prediction: His defense will likely determine whether he’s able to hold off an in-season positional challenge from top prospect Bryson Stott. But if Gregorius’ bat bounces back, he will help balance a lineup that could alternate power bats from the left and right side through the first seven spots.

Stats projection from Steamer: .248/.306/.430, 18 HR, 61 RBIs, .737 OPS, 1.5 WAR.

Position: RF | Age: 28 | Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Contract status: Fourth season of a 13-year, $330 million contract.

2022 outlook: What do you do for an encore after having one of the best all-around seasons in franchise history? With a better supporting cast, the reigning National League MVP doesn’t have to be a one-man show, not that he isn’t capable of it.

» READ MORE: Why Bryce Harper is the perfect Philadelphia athlete

Prediction: A second MVP award cemented Harper as one of the best players in the game. Anyone want to bet against his having another 35-homer, 1.000-OPS season? Didn’t think so.

Stats projection from Steamer: .269/.399/.536, 36 HR, 104 RBIs, .935 OPS, 4.8 WAR.

Position: 1B | Age: 29 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: Arbitration eligible; under control through 2023.

2022 outlook: Even the detractors must have gained an appreciation for him last season, considering the middle-of-the-order void created by his two-month absence with an abdominal injury. After leading the NL in walks in 2019, he sacrificed some on-base proficiency last year for slugging. Finding the sweet spot between being aggressive and selective will be important.

» READ MORE: Who’s going seven? Throwback mentality of starting pitchers suits Phillies’ needs in 2022.

Prediction: Yes, Hoskins can be maddeningly streaky. But it’s impossible to argue with the production. Since he broke into the majors in 2017, he has a 126 OPS+, tied with Cody Bellinger and Nolan Arenado. That’s good company.

Stats projection from Steamer: .238/.351/.495, 34 HR, 93 RBIs, .847 OPS, 2.8 WAR.

Position: OF | Age: 23 | Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2027.

2022 outlook: Disregarded by team officials in November for one of the Phillies’ outfield vacancies, he reemerged last month after Odúbel Herrera went down with a strained side muscle. Moniak made adjustments to his stance with Long and had a big spring. Now comes the hard part: carrying it over to the season.

» READ MORE: How one ‘little adjustment’ has turned around the Phillies’ outlook on Mickey Moniak

Prediction: Maybe this is finally the season that the former No. 1 overall pick puts it all together. There are plenty of skeptics. But he will now have to overcome a fractured right hand that will keep him out the first four to six weeks of the season.

Stats projection from Steamer: .225/.283/.403, 3 HR, 12 RBIs, .686 OPS, 0.0 WAR.

Position: C | Age: 31 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: Second season of a five-year, $115.5 million contract.

2022 outlook: The only question is how many games he will start behind the plate. “He wants to catch 197,” manager Joe Girardi said. Let’s set the over-under at 120, a workload threshold reached last year by one catcher: Kansas City’s Salvador Perez.

» READ MORE: Phillies 2022 season preview: Biggest storylines, predictions, roster outlook and more

Prediction: Since 2016, only St. Louis’ Yadier Molina has caught more innings. That takes a toll, and Realmuto dealt with hand, ankle, and shoulder injuries last season. He’s the Phillies’ most indispensable position player. Keeping him healthy will be paramount.

Stats projection from Steamer: .252/.325/.441, 23 HR, 76 RBIs, .766 OPS, 4.2 WAR.

Position: LF/DH | Age: 29 | Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Contract status: First season of a four-year, $79 million contract.

Outlook for 2022: Save for Andrew McCutchen’s first two months in 2019, the Phillies have lacked a steady presence atop the order. Schwarber may be able to provide that. Nobody would confuse him with Jimmy Rollins. He isn’t the prototypical leadoff man, but his selectivity at the plate makes him a fit for that role.

» READ MORE: Schwarber has always been a winner. His former teammates explain how he does it.

Prediction: The Phillies made him their top free-agent target for two reasons: his power and his winning pedigree. He averaged 31 homers per year over the last four full seasons. If he brings that pop to the lineup, he likely will be back in the postseason for the seventh time.

Stats projection from Steamer: .239/.345/.512, 41 HR, 92 RBIs, .857 OPS, 2.7 WAR.

Position: 2B | Age: 32 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: Fifth season of a five-year, $70 million contract; $17 million team option for 2023.

2022 outlook: It’s a potential contract year for Segura, among the Phillies’ most consistent hitters last season after Harper. He considers himself a top-half-of-the-order hitter and could bat in the No. 2 hole. But he’s probably a better fit as an anchor for the lower half of the lineup in the No. 7 spot.

» READ MORE: Jean Segura, fit and focused, is desperate to end the Phillies’ playoff drought

Prediction: With the retirement of Seattle’s Kyle Seager, no active player has appeared in more games without reaching the playoffs than Segura. He also hasn’t played in a deeper lineup. This may be his best chance to end the streak.

Stats projection from Steamer: .281/.337/.422, 14 HR, 66 RBIs, .759 OPS, 2.3 WAR.

Position: INF | Age: 24 | Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2027.

2022 outlook: After zooming through the minors last season and starring in the Arizona Fall League, the 2019 first-round pick had a strong spring and made the team out of camp. As long as he’s in the majors, he’s going to play, even if it’s at multiple positions. Look for him to get at-bats at third base and second base, in addition to his natural shortstop.

» READ MORE: ‘He’s like a little brother’: Inside the friendship of Phillies’ Bryson Stott and Reds’ Amir Garrett

Prediction: Maybe it comes from rooming with Las Vegas buddy Bryce Harper, but Stott plays with a confidence that belies his lack of experience. The Phillies will ask him to play defense and bring some offense to the bottom half of the lineup. They may be able to feed off his energy, too.

Stats projection from Steamer: .251/.328/.406, 12 HR, 53 RBIs, .733 OPS, 1.6 WAR.

Position: C | Age: 28 | Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2026.

2022 outlook: Think of him as the new Andrew Knapp, who was cut loose after posting a .429 OPS last season. The bar for Stubbs is low. If he’s unable to clear it, or if Realmuto suffers a long-term injury, the Phillies would turn to Rafael Marchán at triple A.

» READ MORE: Setting the line on Phillies’ win total in 2022, Bryce Harper’s MVP chances and more

Prediction: The Phillies ask less from their backup catcher than almost every team. Stubbs had decent on-base skills in the minor leagues with the Astros. His job here will be to handle pitchers and deliver a big hit or two in the 40 or so games that he plays.

Stats projection from Steamer: .220/.308/.340, 2 HR, 10 RBIs, .648 OPS, 0.2 WAR.

Position: CF | Age: 25 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2027.

2022 outlook: He played multiple positions last year to get a 77-plate-appearance audition and hit the ball hard all over the field. Now, the former fifth-round pick from Notre Dame will get an enhanced role in a loaded lineup.

Prediction: Is Vierling a part-timer against left-handed pitching or an everyday player? As long as the rookie catches everything that’s hit to him in center field and gets on base at the bottom of the order, he will have made a positive contribution.

Stats projection from Steamer: .260/.322/.435, 11 HR, 42 RBIs, .757 OPS, 1.1 WAR.

Position: SP | Age: 28 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Fourth season of a four-year, $45 million contract; $16 million team option for 2023.

2022 outlook: There is reason to believe Nola dealt with some bad luck last season, but that doesn’t paint the whole picture. Nola’s fly-ball rate and home-run rate both increased last year, and he struggled to make the right pitch in two-strike counts. He looked terrific in his most recent spring outing, but getting those home-run rate and fly-ball rates down will be important for him in 2022.

» READ MORE: Nola prepared for a bounce-back season with some ‘honest truth’ from catcher brother

Prediction: The Phillies don’t have much starting pitching depth to work with, which makes Nola’s performance in 2022 — after a shortened spring training that could lead to some injuries — all the more important. If he bounces back, he could be a difference maker for them.

Stats projection from Steamer: 32 starts, 192 IP, 3.96 ERA, 213 K, 55 BB, 3.6 WAR

Position: SP | Age: 31 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Third season of a five-year, $118 million contract.

2022 outlook: It’s hard to imagine that Wheeler could put together a much better season than he did last year, when he posted a 2.78 ERA over 213⅓ innings pitched, a performance that nearly won him an NL Cy Young Award. The biggest question for him entering 2022 will be health. Wheeler is coming off some shoulder soreness he felt in the offseason, which delayed his normal spring training ramp-up. He will make his first start on April 12 without facing live MLB-caliber hitters this spring.

Prediction: It would be tough for Wheeler to replicate what he did last year — especially the workload, given the shortened spring — but if he can stay healthy, there’s no reason to believe he won’t put together another excellent year.

Stats projection from Steamer: 31 starts, 193 IP, 3.70 ERA, 198 K, 48 BB, 3.9 WAR

Position: SP | Age: 26 | Throws: Left

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2025.

2022 outlook: Suárez exceeded most expectations last year, posting a 1.36 ERA in 106 innings of work, both in relief and out of the rotation. Most projections suggest that there will be some regression, allowing more home runs in 2022, but even if his home run totals and ERA climb a bit, he will still be able to keep the Phillies in games.

Prediction: The Phillies don’t need Suárez to replicate his 1.36 ERA this season, they just need him to be consistent. For a younger guy without a lot of major-league experience, he doesn’t seemed to be fazed by too much, so consistency should be well within reach for him.

Stats projection from Steamer: 28 starts, 156 IP, 4.15 ERA, 142 K, 58 BB, 1.9 WAR

Position: SP | Age: 27 (turns 28 on April 8) | Throws: Right

Contract status: Arbitration eligible; can be a free agent after the season.

2022 outlook: Originally, Eflin, who underwent knee surgery last September, was projected to return in May. But he was able to get his work in during the lockout, and now says he’s back on track for the start of the season. It’s hard to put expectations on a guy with Eflin’s injury history. It’s safe to say the Phillies would be pleased if they could get a full season of him in good health.

» READ MORE: Bring on the ‘chunk guys’: April will put Phillies’ pitching depth to the test

Prediction: Eflin posted a 4.17 ERA in 18 starts in 2021. He saw his walk rates and strikeout rates both drop. The Phillies will look for him to stay not only healthy but consistent.

Stats projection from Steamer: 28 starts, 158 IP, 4.68 ERA, 136 K, 40 BB, 1.5 WAR

Position: SP | Age: 34 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Third season of a three-year, $28 million deal.

2022 outlook: Gibson had an All-Star-worthy first half last season, posting a 2.78 ERA in 19 starts for the Texas Rangers before he was traded to the Phillies. Gibson tends to induce ground balls, which hurt him in Philadelphia last season with an infield defense that was statistically one of the worst in the majors. The caliber of the infield defense isn’t projected to change much in 2022, which could be tough for Gibson.

Prediction: Gibson has been working on throwing his cutter arm-side, to try to keep hitters on their toes. His big arsenal is one of his strengths — he has six pitches at his disposal, most of which he can throw to both sides of the plate. The ability to be creative will be important, both in a hitters ballpark, and among an infield defense that isn’t guaranteed to always field the ground balls he induces.

Stats projection from Steamer: 32 starts, 190 IP, 4.64 ERA, 163 K, 73 BB, 1.7 WAR

Position: RP | Age: 27 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2026

2022 outlook: Brogdon didn’t ramp up the way he normally did during the lockout, because he didn’t know when it would end. He says this is the reason his velocity has been down a couple of ticks. He was averaging around 96 mph last season, and has been sitting in the 92-93-mph range this spring. He said he suffered a cold recently, which also pushed him behind the other relievers. Whether he starts the season on the roster is up in the air.

» READ MORE: Phillies counting on Mr. Fix-It Bobby Dickerson to improve the majors’ worst infield defense

Prediction: Brogdon insists that he is not dealing with an injury, and that the velocity drop is just workload-related. Whether it returns will have a significant impact on his ability to contribute in 2022 — and with a couple of relievers dealing with injuries, the Phillies need the depth Brogdon could provide.

Stats projection from Steamer: 58 IP, 4.46 ERA, 58 K, 23 BB, 0.2 WAR

Position: Closer | Age: 30 | Throws: Right

Contract status: One-year, $10 million deal.

2022 outlook: It took a while for Knebel to return to form following Tommy John surgery before the 2019 season. He was able to get into only 15 games in 2020, and posted a 6.08 ERA over that span. But he bounced back in 2021 with the Dodgers, posting a 2.45 ERA through 25⅔ innings pitched with three saves. He says he’s healthy, and has looked great this spring, hitting 97 mph a few times in his first few Grapefruit League outings.

Prediction: The Phillies are hoping Knebel can be a dominant closer in 2022, someone they can hand the ball to with the peace of mind that he’ll get some quick and easy outs. If he performs the way he did last season, or even a fraction of the way he did last season, he will be a huge part of the Phillies’ postseason aspirations.

Stats projection from Steamer: 62 IP, 22 saves, 3.88 ERA, 76 K, 25 BB, 0.5 WAR

Position: RP | Age: 32 | Throws: Left

Contract status: One-year, $6 million deal.

2022 outlook: Hand split his 2021 season among three teams — Washington, Toronto and New York — and had a tough year overall, mainly because he stopped fooling hitters. He and Jeurys Familia bring a veteran presence to a bullpen tha struggled over the last few seasons, and Hand has experience closing games, which could be helpful should Knebel deal with health problems.

» READ MORE: Will the Phillies’ latest attempt to fix the bullpen do the trick?

Prediction: Hand’s velocity has been down a few ticks this spring; he has been around 90-91 mph. It could be because of a slower ramp-up, but it’s something to keep an eye on. What is more concerning, long term, was his chase rates’ going down in 2021. If the Phillies can fix that, he can add to their bullpen. But if not, he might make their bullpen woes worse.

Stats projection from Steamer: 62 IP, 4.40 ERA, 66 K, 24 BB, 0.1 WAR

Position: RP | Age: 32 | Throws: Right

Contract status: One-year, $6 million deal.

2022 outlook: Familia put together a solid season last year for the Mets, but was not the most reliable arm to call upon late in games. Over 59⅓ innings pitched, he recorded a 3.94 ERA.

Prediction: Because Familia is a sinkerballer, he induces a lot of ground balls, which could pair poorly with the Phillies’ infield defense. Familia might need to increase his usage of some of the other pitches in his arsenal to mitigate that.

Stats projection from Steamer: 67 IP, 4.19 ERA, 70 K, 31 BB, 0.2 WAR

Position: RP | Age: 27 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Arbitration eligible; under control through 2024.

2022 outlook: Domínguez is poised to have his first healthy full season since his 2018 rookie campaign. Following his Tommy John surgery, it wasn’t clear what the Phillies would get from Domínguez in 2022, but he’s looked great in spring training. He’s trimmed off some weight, feels good, and is already throwing 97 mph.

» READ MORE: Addition of Bryson Stott makes Phillies’ infield a more complex puzzle

Prediction: Domínguez will deliver the season the Phillies have been waiting for. He’ll be a difference maker down the stretch as a reliable, hard-throwing arm that the league hasn’t seen much of and the Phillies can use whenever they choose.

Stats projection from Steamer: 55 IP, 4.49 ERA, 53 K, 25 BB, 0.0 WAR

Position: RP | Age: 26 | Throws: Left

Contract status: Arbitration eligible; under control through 2023.

2022 outlook: Alvarado was dealing with some neck stiffness earlier in camp, and was shut down for a few days because of it. It wasn’t clear if he’d be ready to join the team by opening day, but after pitching an inning of work in a Grapefruit League game on Sunday — in which he was hitting 99 and 100 mph — Girardi said the team is “probably thinking [Alvarado is] going to be OK.”

Prediction: Alvarado has electric stuff that runs 100 mph with movement. If healthy, he could be a dangerous weapon at Girardi’s disposal, and an important piece of the bullpen’s long-term success.

Stats projection from Steamer: 66 IP, 3.54 ERA, 85 K, 39 BB, 0.5 WAR

Position: RP | Age: 27 | Throws: Left

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under team control through 2027

2022 outlook: Jones made only one appearance for the big-league club in 2021 — pitching a third of an inning and allowing one hit and two walks — so he is an unknown entity. He has looked good this spring; in 5⅓ innings pitched, he allowed only one earned run and one walk, striking out seven.

» READ MORE: Lame-duck Phillies manager Joe Girardi has the hottest seat in baseball

Prediction: Jones made the opening-day roster because Sam Coonrod (shoulder) and Ryan Sherriff (biceps) did not. It’s hard to expect much from someone who has only a third of an inning of experience in the big leagues, but if Jones could build off the success he’s had in camp, he could be a good depth option in the bullpen.

Stats projection from Steamer: 24 IP, 4.25 ERA, 26 K, 14 BB, 0.0 WAR

Position: SP/RP | Age: 24 | Throws: Left

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under team control through 2027

2022 outlook: Falter is looking to build upon one year of big-league experience, in which he posted a 5.61 ERA over 33⅔ innings. The Phillies have been encouraging him to think and train like a starter so he can fill in for the rotation if need be earlier in the season.

Prediction: Falter will play an important role in the rotation early on. Last season, he showed an ability to go multiple innings in relief, and the Phillies are planning on using that skill in the first month of the season as they try to keep their starters on a more limited workload.

Stats projection from Steamer: 37 IP, 4.26 ERA, 36 K, 12 BB, 0.2 WAR

Position: SP/RP | Age: 24 | Throws: Left

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under team control through 2027

2022 outlook: Similar to Falter, the Phillies are looking at Sánchez as a guy who can fill in innings early on, when the starters are beginning to ramp up. Sánchez also had a few multi-inning outings last season, which the Phillies are hoping he builds upon in 2022.

» READ MORE: Our 2022 predictions for the Phillies and MLB: Will the playoff drought end?

Prediction: The base-level hope for Sánchez in 2022 is that he’ll be a reliable depth option who can eat innings earlier in the season. He’ll try to build off a strong spring training.

Stats projection from Steamer: 34 IP, 4.24 ERA, 33 K, 17 BB, 0.3 WAR

Position: SP/RP | Age: 26 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under team control through 2026

2022 outlook: Acquired in an offseason trade with the Yankees, Nelson is another multi-innings guy, like Falter and Sánchez. The hope is that those three will be able to back up some of the starters who are behind, like Suárez and Wheeler.

» READ MORE: Phillies fans will need Peacock and Apple+ this season, but they’ll get less A-Rod

Prediction: If Nelson can eat some innings for the Phillies in 2022, he’ll be a help.

Stats projection from Steamer: 38 IP, 4.24 ERA, 42 K, 19 BB, 0.1 WAR