The Phillies’ trade-deadline needs are clear. Here are some potential trade targets for Dave Dombrowski and Co.
Carlos Estévez and Taylor Ward How about Lane Thomas and Kyle Finnegan, or Randy Arozarena and a Rays reliever for the right price? There's some one-stop shopping potential for the Phillies.
![Los Angeles Angels Taylor Ward (left) and Los Angeles Angels relief pitcher Carlos Estevez (right)](https://www.inquirer.com/resizer/9Kkgu1m_kLQVm1iSaUnCptwyJ8A=/760x507/smart/filters:format(webp)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/pmn/X4WBIIPQP5HU3FPL2SCTRUAQV4.jpg)
MINNEAPOLIS — The All-Star Game was one week ago. The draft is over. Dave Dombrowski is back from a weekend in Cooperstown, N.Y., where his friend and former manager, Jim Leyland, was inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Let’s make a deal.
It’s trade season in baseball. Teams have seven days — until 6 p.m. July 30, to be exact — to bolster their major-league roster for a run at the World Series. After that, players on 40-man rosters may be placed on outright waivers and claimed, but they can’t be traded.
» READ MORE: How aggressive will the Phillies be at the trade deadline? Let’s look at Dave Dombrowski’s history for clues.
Although some teams are still vacillating between buying and selling — or maybe a little of both — there’s no ambiguity about the Phillies. Even after losing four of five games entering Tuesday night against the Twins, they have the best record (63-37) and second-best run differential (plus-107) in baseball and a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.
So, yes, they’re firmly in the buyers’ club.
The Phillies, according to multiple sources, want to address two areas: outfield and bullpen. Dombrowski could go big and move a package of prospects for talented but injury-prone center fielder Luis Robert Jr. But the White Sox could hold Robert in the midst of a down season and try to get more in the offseason.
Besides, save for a 2014 blockbuster for ace David Price, Dombrowski’s approach at recent deadlines with the Tigers, Red Sox, and Phillies was to target specific needs. A right-handed hitter here (Steve Pearce), a back-end starter there (Kyle Gibson/Noah Syndergaard/Michael Lorenzen).
And after rebuilding the farm system over the last few years, the Phillies aren’t inclined to deplete their stable of top prospects, notably Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, and Justin Crawford.
But not every team is operating with the Phillies’ clarity. The wild-card standings still look like a Schuylkill traffic jam at rush hour. Through Monday, 13 National League teams and eight American League clubs were either in possession of a playoff spot or within 4½ games.
» READ MORE: The Phillies want a platoon partner for Brandon Marsh. Here are six trade candidates who could fill the need.
The picture of the market will get clearer as next Tuesday gets closer. Asking prices will change, too. If, for instance, the Rays and Blue Jays take the plunge and sell, the market would be juiced by an influx of star hitters, notably Randy Arozarena and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
In the meantime, it’s worth wondering if the Phillies could go one-stop shopping to fill both of their needs. Here’s a look at three teams — two definitive sellers, one undecided — that could be a match in terms of their supply of outfielders and relievers and perhaps their willingness to pair them up:
Angels
There isn’t a more fickle baseball creature than the late-inning reliever, with performance tending to vary wildly from year to year and often even within a season. But two traits can be predictive of future success: low walk rates and high ground-ball rates.
Consider the case of Carlos Estévez.
Estévez, 31, is having his best season — and just in time to become a free agent in the winter — because he lowered his walk rate from 11% last year to a career-best 4.1%. Not coincidentally, he had a 2.45 ERA and was 19-for-22 in save opportunities through Monday for the Angels.
» READ MORE: The Phillies’ bullpen isn’t a weakness, but that doesn’t mean they should pass on upgrading at the trade deadline
Since taking over as manager in 2022, Rob Thomson has preferred not to appoint a closer. Trading for Estévez likely wouldn’t change anything. But he would deepen a late-inning group that includes fellow righties Jeff Hoffman and Orion Kerkering and lefties Matt Strahm, José Alvarado, and maybe Gregory Soto. It would also enable Thomson to use Alvarado earlier in the game in the postseason.
Because Estévez isn’t signed beyond this season, the Angels might want to sweeten their return by tethering him to controllable player. That’s where outfielder Taylor Ward comes in. Ward, 30, has two more years of arbitration eligibility. He’s also batting .333 with three home runs and a .904 OPS against left-handed pitching.
Sounds like a nice fit as a platoon mate for lefty-hitting Brandon Marsh.
Nationals
Things are trending upward, but not even the rosiest outlook has the Nationals winning a division title next season, which happens to be the last year of club control over reliever Kyle Finnegan and outfielder Lane Thomas.
Why not package them to a contender for another prospect?
Finnegan, 32, is having the best season of his career with a 2.32 ERA and 28 saves through Monday. There are reasons to be skeptical, beginning with opponents’ .210 batting average on balls in play, a sign of potential regression. But the righty throws in the upper 90s and would fit in among Hoffman, Kerkering, Strahm, and Alvarado.
» READ MORE: What if the Phillies’ outfield production doesn’t improve? Here are a few trade options to watch.
Thomas, 28, was available at the deadline last season, but the Nationals valued him as an everyday player. A year later, maybe they will hook an outfielder-needy team (Braves, Royals, Mariners) without reducing Thomas’ price.
But like Ward, Thomas’ production against lefties far outweighs what he does against righties, making him the clean-shaven mirror image of Marsh. Through Monday, Thomas was batting .329 with three homers and a .932 OPS against lefties.
Rays
OK, so considering the need for outfielders, maybe Tampa Bay could get a nice return for resurgent Randy Arozarena without tying him to another player. After all, he’s slugging .574 with seven homers since June 14 after a dreadful first 2½ months.
And maybe the Rays won’t be sellers at all.
But the Rays are among the best teams at self-scouting, so they surely saw the run differential (minus-66) alongside their .500 record entering play Tuesday. Arozarena, 29, also isn’t locked up to a multiyear contract, and after making $8.1 million via arbitration this year, the Scott Boras client will only get more expensive for the small-market Rays before he reaches free agency after the 2026 season.
» READ MORE: Three questions the Phillies must answer before they decide what to do at the trade deadline
Arozarena’s appeal also includes a .336 average, 11 homers, and 1.104 OPS in 33 career playoff games. He has hit lefties better than righties throughout his career but isn’t limited to a platoon role with the Rays. Trading for him, then, might signal more of a Marsh-Johan Rojas timeshare in center field, with Arozarena getting everyday at-bats in left.
The Rays also have a bevy of relievers, including Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks, who are under club control beyond this season. But there’s also righty Kevin Kelly, who has the second-lowest walk rate (2.8%) and 19th-best ground-ball rate (54.8%) among qualified relievers.